It’s another action-packed week in The Win Column’s power rankings with streaking teams still rising and falling significantly through four weeks of play. This week sees a new team at number one, as well as a new logo in the top five.
TWC Power Rankings explained
If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. This year we have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also re-worked the recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!
Week 4 NHL Power Rankings
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|1||+1||Vegas Golden Knights||3-0-0||11-2-0||853|
|3||–||New Jersey Devils||3-0-0||9-3-0||837.7|
|8||+7||Toronto Maple Leafs||3-0-0||7-4-2||722.3|
|9||-1||New York Rangers||1-1-1||6-4-3||711.8|
|10||+3||Tampa Bay Lightning||2-0-1||7-4-1||703.9|
|11||–||Detroit Red Wings||3-1-0||7-3-2||701.3|
|17||+2||New York Islanders||2-1-0||7-5-0||674|
|18||+3||Los Angeles Kings||2-1-1||7-6-1||667.3|
|27||+2||San Jose Sharks||0-0-3||3-8-3||560|
|29||-3||St Louis Blues||0-2-0||3-6-0||535.8|
|32||-2||Columbus Blue Jackets||0-2-0||3-9-0||478.9|
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Week 4 highlights
Step aside Boston, there’s a new number one this week. With a perfect 3–0–0 record in week 4, the Vegas Golden Knights have leapfrogged the impressive Boston Bruins for first place in the power rankings. With a league-leading 84.6 points percentage and 93.0 save percentage, it’s no wonder Vegas is on top.
In second place, Boston fell only one place after topping the rankings in week 3. Though the Bruins won twice this week, they also lost to the Toronto Maple Leafs, costing them first place. While the Bruins aren’t best-in-class at any of the categories the model values, they are near the top in every one, with strong rankings in terms of possession and high-danger share suggesting their stellar record is not just a hot streak.
The New Jersey Devils round out the top three for the second consecutive week, after completing it with an undefeated 3–0–0 record. What might be most impressive about the Devils 9–3–0 record this season—and their ranking here—is that they’re doing it with below-average goaltending. Ranked 21st in save percentage, the Devils have made up for their goaltending struggles with a dominant offence and league-leading share of high-danger shot attempts.
Also in the same position as last week are the Carolina Hurricanes, coming in at fourth. The Hurricanes haven’t seemed to miss a beat this year, and are once again Stanley Cup contenders. Their underlying numbers match the record too, with strong possession and chance creation leading to the team’s success.
The Dallas Stars had a strong 3–0–0 week, which brought them up four spaces and into the fifth place. Although most of their underlying numbers are middling, their impressive results speak for themselves. The team is 8–3–1 overall, ands has had some of the best goaltending in the league so far.
Outside of the top five, there were some interesting risers and fallers. The biggest riser of the week was the Colorado Avalanche, jumping nine spaces into 14th. They were 2–0–0 on the week, and while they don’t have the elite numbers you might expect from the reigning champs, they clearly have the skill to win games regardless.
The Calgary Flames were unfortunately the biggest fallers of Week 4, dropping eleven spaces thanks to their dismal week. Dropping all three games played and collecting just one of a possible six points, the Flames slid all the way down to 16th in the rankings. Considering the team is currently 17th in the league in points percentage, it’s no surprise to see them fall so far. With the exception of Corsi share, the Flames underlying numbers have been nothing special to help maintain a higher ranking either.
Lastly (in more ways than one), the Columbus Blue Jackets are the new bottom-ranked team. Dropping both games played, they not only struggle to score, they have the worst save percentage in the league. There may be a bad luck component to this however; just like last week, they still have the lowest PDO in the league, something that is sure to turn around eventually.
Past 2022–23 Power Rankings
Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings.