The Calgary Flames are currently slated to pick sixth overall at the 2026 NHL Draft. However, could that change, given rumours that the San Jose Sharks are listening on the second overall pick and the Chicago Blackhawks could move the fourth pick? The Flames went into the draft lottery with the fourth-best odds, but were knocked to sixth when the Toronto Maple Leafs and Sharks won the first and second lotteries, respectively.
I can see General Manager Craig Conroy having an appetite to get back into the top five. It would be a historical move, as the Flames have only drafted in the top five one time—Sam Bennett, 2014—since moving to Calgary. Since that was the Flames’ own pick, it would also be the first time they traded into the top five.
The organization picked second overall in the 1972 NHL amateur draft as the Atlanta Flames. They also acquired the second overall pick in the 1973 draft via trade. So, this would mark the organization’s fourth top-five pick and second time trading into the top five in its 54-year history.
We polled Flames fans this week about whether the team should try to move up. How likely is such a trade, though?
Last team to pick top-five with another team’s pick
We have to go back six years to find the last time a team drafted in the top five with a pick that was not their own. The Ottawa Senators drafted third overall, courtesy of the Sharks. At the tail end of their Cup-contending window, and following a second-round loss, the Sharks acquired Erik Karlsson from the Senators to bolster their blue line and extend their window. They sent the Senators a package including Josh Norris, Chris Tierney, Dylan DeMelo, and their 2020 first-round pick.
That trade backfired spectacularly. In their first season after the trade, the Sharks returned to the Western Conference Final, but fell in six games to the St. Louis Blues. The Blues went on to win the Stanley Cup that year. Then everything fell apart for the Sharks. Not only did they miss the playoffs in 2019–20, but they finished third-last in the league. The Senators won the draft lottery for the third overall pick with the Sharks’ pick—Tim Stutzle—and the Sharks haven’t been back to the playoffs since.
The Senators were on the other side of a similar situation the year before. They had moved a top-10 protected 2018 first-round pick to the Colorado Avalanche in 2017 as part of a package for Matt Duchene. The pick ended up fourth overall—Brady Tkachuk—so the Senators sent their 2019 first-round pick unprotected instead. The Avalanche used that pick to draft Bowen Byram fourth overall.
What’s different about these trades and the Flames trading into the top five this year? The pick is a known quantity. The Sharks and Senators did not expect to give up top-five picks when acquiring Karlsson and Duchene. So, let’s find the last time a team traded into the top five shortly before the draft.
Last time a team traded into the top five
We have to go back 18 years—to the 2008 NHL Draft—to find the last time a team knowingly traded into the top five. The Leafs packaged the seventh overall pick with a third-rounder that year and a second-rounder the following year to acquire the fifth overall pick from the New York Islanders. Somewhat of a high price to move up two spots, but the Leafs got what they wanted in Luke Schenn.
Could Conroy make a similar pitch to move up from six to four this year? Maybe, but I doubt it. I think the calibre of player available at four this year is higher than what was available to the Leafs at five in 2008. I also think the Blackhawks want to start trending upwards. They have missed the playoffs in eight of the last nine seasons. Moreover, franchise centre Connor Bedard will want to see the team moving in the right direction before he commits long-term this summer. So, draft picks might not be enticing for the Hawks unless they flip them to another team.
What about moving up to second overall to secure an elite forward prospect like Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg? Well, the Sharks are in a similar situation to the Blackhawks. They’ve missed the playoffs seven straight years and have a wealth of elite young players. It’s time to get back to the post-season—draft picks are probably only enticing to the Sharks as trade bait for a bigger fish.
Moving into the top five is unlikely for the Flames
In addition to the above situations, there’s only one other instance since the 2004–05 lockout where a team drafted in the top five using another team’s pick. The Boston Bruins picked second overall at the 2010 draft—Tyler Seguin—courtesy of the Leafs. That was a result of a 2009 trade that saw the Leafs acquire Phil Kessel.
Coming back to this year, I think both the Blackhawks and Sharks are more interested in improving their rosters immediately. That’s not something the Flames can really help with. Sure, they have some secondary pieces like Yegor Sharangovich, Morgan Frost, Blake Coleman, and maybe even Connor Zary, who they can offer. But it will be tough to strike a deal with any of those players as the big piece.
The most valuable assets the Flames possess right now are their first-round picks. Unless the Blackhawks or Sharks have interest in adding more picks, I don’t think a trade materializes. The second and fourth-overall picks can net those teams a better player than anything the Flames have to offer. Also, the Blackhawks were reportedly open to moving the third overall pick last year. They ended up keeping the pick and drafted Anton Frondell. They’ve shown that while they’ll listen, they’ll still draft if they don’t like the offers.
We also must consider how infrequently these top picks are moved, even unintentionally. Four times in 21 years—or four out of 105 top-five picks. That’s 3.8% of top-five picks since the 2005 lockout that were made by teams that did not originally own the pick. So, I’m sorry to say it, but I don’t think we’ll see our team drafting in the top five this year.
