It’s that time of the year for The Win Column’s NHL Draft Rankings and Draft Profiles! The 2024 NHL Draft will be held on June 28 and 29 at The Sphere in Las Vegas.
Up next is Emil Hemming, a big winger out of Finland who should see his name called midway through the first round of the draft.
Who is Emil Hemming?
| PLAYER | POSITION | HANDEDNESS | HEIGHT | WEIGHT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emil Hemming | RW | R | 6’2″ | 194 lbs |
Born in Vaasa, Finland, Hemming is a large man at just 17 years of age. He has been exceptionally good on the wing as a scoring winger when put in positions to score but he does have a few warts in his game that he will need to work through.
Hemming’s on-ice production
| YEAR | DRAFT RELATIVE | LEAGUE | TEAM | GP | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | D-3 | U16 SM-sarja | Kiekko-Espoo U16 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 2021–22 | D-2 | U16 SM-sarja | Kiekko-Espoo U16 | 7 | 22 | 6 | 28 |
| D-2 | U18 SM-sarja | Kiekko-Espoo U16 | 28 | 18 | 14 | 32 | |
| D-2 | U20 SM-sarja | Kiekko-Espoo U16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2022–23 | D-1 | U18 SM-sarja | TPS U18 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| U20 SM-sarja | TPS U20 | 22 | 7 | 9 | 16 | ||
| 2023-24 | D-0 | U20 SM-sarja | TPS U20 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 18 |
| Liiga | TPS | 40 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
Hemming has had such an interesting career to this point. He has consistently been overachieving at every level since 2020 and has been scoring well above a point-per-game pace when playing against competition above his age. Remember, he is still only 17 and has dominated at the U20 level to the point of being pushed to play in Liiga, Finland’s top league, as a 17-year-old.
This is where it gets interesting. This season, as he transitioned to Liiga, his offensive numbers have dried up substantially. He has not been able to elevate his game the way he once did when playing against fully-grown men as a 17-year-old. Despite being larger than most at his age, it’s a different game playing in Liiga at his age.
This season, he spent most of the year on the fourth line for TPS, which is a change for the high-powered winger who likes to strut his stuff in the offensive zone. He had just 11 points all year and did not play in any of TPS’ playoff games. Instead, he spent his playoffs in the U20, where he had 10 points in 11 games for that team.
This then begs the question, will Hemming be able to elevate his game effectively at higher levels? As good as Liiga is, it’s far from being the best league in Europe, but at 17, it’s not realistic to expect him to dominate the way he did in U20. He is still an outstanding player, who should put up even better numbers next season.
The one thing that has helped raise his draft stock has been his performance in the World U18s. Playing on the top line, Hemming finished with six points in five games, good for second on his team and 14th in the tournament. He also looked outstanding in his role, scoring four goals and being absolutely lethal on the power play. Take a look at one of his goals here:
There is a lot to like about Hemming’s game. Let’s jump into it.
Hemming’s strengths
Shot
The key element of Hemming’s game that stands out is his shot. He’s one of the best in class in terms of both the heaviness and accuracy of this area of his game, which he has shown off at basically every level he has played at. Even in Liiga this season, when he was given an opportunity, he showed that he could score reliably.
He’s also very good at getting shots from odd angles, which he has been able to sneak past goalies. This makes such a difference at higher levels when he has had fewer clear chances at a higher level.
On top of that, he has the ability to get shots off at speed, which has made him a difference-maker at the higher levels. His one-timer is hard and clear, as was demonstrated time and again at the World U18s.
Skating
Hemming is also an excellent skater, with strong strides and the capacity to really fly on the ice. He gets up to a high speed quickly, and when he gets going, he can beat defenders on the rush.
His edgework is also very impressive—he’s able to use crossovers and other maneuvers to keep defenders guessing on the ice. As a power forward, he can use this to his advantage to create space for himself in front of the net, set screens as needed, and find open lanes for tips and tap-ins.
Of all the skaters in the draft, Hemming is among the best in this area. His speed is outstanding, utilizes his skating effectively, and understands his role on the ice.
Hemming’s areas of improvement
Engagement in the game
The challenge with Hemming is consistency. Sometimes he’s outstanding, fully engaged at both ends of the ice and able to showcase why he is one of the top talents in this year’s draft, but in other games, he’s barely noticeable and often lazy on the ice. This happens both from game to game but also from shift to shift.
Even more than that, sometimes his decision-making can be suspect. Sometimes he’s great at making the smart play in a breakout, while other times he’ll try a riskier play, lose the puck and then it ends up in his own net. Take a look at this breakout where he tries to beat two guys in front of his own net, loses the puck, and ends up with his team down a goal:
This is a major problem for a team looking to draft him as you just don’t know what you’re going to get out of him. Is he going to be the outstanding power forward that you see in the highlight reels, or is he going to be a depth winger with a ton of potential but limited actual output?
NHL teams are risk-averse and tend to like the reliability of the low-risk plays as opposed to the flashier high-risk plays. This is what makes Hemming a riskier prospect to take in this year’s draft.
Defence
Hemming is a prototypical power forward and has the same issue that nearly every high-end forward does: defensive play. For Hemming, this mostly shows up in the form of puck-watching and stagnation in his own zone.
Fundamentally, this is something that can be fixed with video and practice, and any NHL team can probably train this out of him. They have almost all had to do it at least once before and can definitely do this with Hemming, so long as he’s willing to learn and grow.
Hemming’s comparables
It’s hard to think of a player with as high of a risk/reward profile as Hemming. He truly has so much offensive potential but also so much risk in terms of whether he can show that upside.
The one player who does come to mind as comparable is Tage Thompson, who in his draft year showed his offensive potential but had major questions about the reliability of his two-way game. Another big player, Hemming probably also has a bit of work to do to grow into his body.
While not as good nor with as many points as him, the other player that he reminds me of is fellow Finn Jesse Puljujarvi, who was a larger Finnish forward who could score. Puljujarvi was also criticized for his decision-making and ability to put all of his skills together at the NHL level. While Hemming is not as good, the potential is there for him to be excellent at the highest levels, but will need to put the pieces together.
Fit with the Flames
The good news with Hemming in terms of his fit with the Flames is his elite skill, which is something that the Flames just don’t have in their prospect pool. There are literally zero forwards in the Flames’ prospect pool with the high-end skill that Hemming has.
The challenge is whether that skill will actually show up if/when he makes the NHL, and even if it does, whether it show up enough for him to be a top-six forward. The potential is absolutely there, but will it show up in full is the question.
If it does show up, it will be a massive win for this organization if they draft him, but if not, this would go down as yet another first-round bust for the organization.
Summary
Overall, Hemming is a highly risky play for the Flames. He’s definitely not someone they should take with their first pick in the first round, but he could be an intriguing option with their second first-rounder or their second-round pick. He’s got an unbelievable amount of skill in his body and is very much that high-risk, high-reward prospect. Flames fans have been looking for the team to take a swing on the prospect with a high upside, and Hemming may be that guy.
Risk: 4/5
Reward: 5/5
Projection: Middle-six winger with higher offensive upside
Check out all of The Win Column’s individual player profiles of selected 2024 NHL Draft prospects:
Macklin Celebrini | Ivan Demidov | Artyom Levshunov | Sam Dickinson | Cayden Lindstrom | Berkly Catton | Cole Eiserman | Zeev Buium | Konsta Helenius | Zayne Parekh | Carter Yakemchuk | Anton Silayev | Tij Iginla | Adam Jiricek | Michael Brandsegg-Nygard | Liam Greentree | Igor Chernyshov | Trevor Connelly | Aron Kiviharju | Michael Hage | Ryder Ritchie | Sacha Boisvert | Nikita Artamonov | Maxim Masse | Cole Hutson | Beckett Sennecke | Dominik Badinka | Emil Hemming | Henry Mews | Terik Parascak | Alfons Freij | Charlie Elick | EJ Emery | John Mustard | Luka Misa | Tanner Howe | Lucas Pettersson
