It’s that time of the year for The Win Column’s NHL Draft Rankings and Draft Profiles! Earlier this week, we looked at Macklin Celebrini, Ivan Demidov and Artyom Levshunov. The 2024 NHL Draft will take place on June 28 and 29 at The Sphere in Las Vegas.
Up next in our rankings is Sam Dickinson, a versatile two-way defenceman projected to be a top 10 pick. Before Artyom Levshunov’s incredible USHL season this year, Dickinson saw time as the projected first defenceman off the board on June 28. A “drop” to second isn’t a knock on Dickinson but more of a rise for Levshunov. Despite Dickinson’s large frame, his skating ability and poise in all three zones, his offensive ceiling has scouts drooling.
Who is Sam Dickinson?
| Player | Position | Handedness | Height | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Dickinson | D | Left | 6’3″ | 198lbs |
Dickinson’s on-ice production
| Year | Draft Relative | League | Team | GP | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020–21 | D-3 | GTHL U14 | Toronto Marlboros U14 AAA | – | – | – | – |
| 2021–22 | D-2 | GTHL U16 | Toronto Marlboros U16 AAA | 46 | 5 | 34 | 39 |
| OJHL | Aurora Tigers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 2022–23 | D-1 | OHL | London Knights | 62 | 9 | 14 | 23 |
| WHC-17 | Canada Black U17 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| 2023–24 | D+0 | OHL | London Knights | 68 | 18 | 52 | 70 |
Dickinson, a Toronto product, began his minor hockey AAA career in 2019–20. Although on the U14 Toronto Marlboros AAA team in the GTHL, Dickinson was unable to play a single game due to the pandemic.
GTHL Excellence
The next season, 2020–21 was another season lost to the pandemic. 2021–22 is where Dickinson made the jump to the U16 Marlboros squad in the GTHL. At the time Dickinson was 15 years old and posted a strong 39 points in 46 games played in one of the highest-level minor hockey leagues in the world.
Following the conclusion of that 2021–22 campaign, Dickinson was drafted fourth overall in the OHL Bantam draft by the Niagara Ice Dogs.
OHL or USHL?
Dickinson’s time with the Ice Dogs organization was short-lived, to say the least. In a matter of three months, Sam had been packaged in a blockbuster trade with the London Knights that saw Dickinson head to London for three second-rounders, three third-rounders, and a fifth-round selection.
At the time of the trade, Niagara GM Darren DeDobbelaer said the organization had “no intentions to trade Dickinson.” Further into the Niagara Ice Dogs official statement, DeDobblelaer continued to state “We were unable to secure a meeting with his representation and family to convince him to report to camp. After an aggressive offer by London, we thought this was the best move for our organization moving forward and in the years to come”.
Although it could be alarming to scouts that Dickinson seemingly had no interest in playing in Niagara, the defensive prospect was also selected by the USHL’s Chicago Steel. After being traded to London, Dickinson ultimately decided to stay in Canada and go the Major Junior route.
Major Junior emergence
Dickinson played his first season with London the following September to begin the 2022–23 season. Last year the 16-year-old defenceman posted nine goals and 23 points in 62 games. Dickinson continued to impact the team as they entered their OHL playoff run, posting four goals and four assists in 21 playoff games. Following last season, Dickinson was named to the OHL All-Rookie first team.
This season, Dickinson’s offensive production has skyrocketed, most notably his assist totals. In 68 games this season Sam posted 18 goals and 62 assists for 70 points in the regular season. With over a point-per-game production in his second CHL season as a defenceman, Dickinson has continued to develop at the rate scouts expected. Doubling his goal total and quintupling his assists this season was by no mistake. Dickinson’s poise with the puck has been cited as one of his strongest assets when you combine it with his exceptional skating.
Additionally, Sam highlighted the CHL Top Prospects game earlier in the year being named as team Red’s captain.
International play
In 2022–23 Dickinson donned the captain’s patch for Canada’s U17 Black team at the World Hockey Championships U17 tournament. Dickinson played seven games posting a goal and an assist earning himself an all-star nod.
During his performance this season the 17-year-old earned himself an invite to Canada’s U18 team headed to the Hlinka Gretzky Cup where the team won gold. Dickinson once again showcased his leadership abilities being announced as an alternate captain for the team. Don’t be surprised if we see Dickinson in next year’s world junior tournament.
Dickinson’s strengths
Skating
At 6’3″ Dickinson certainly has the stride length to facilitate strong skating. Where Dickinson separates himself from most other lengthy D-men is his agility and lateral movement.
Dickinson has been cited as having one of the best first strides among defensive prospects in the class while moving efficiently and quickly in all four directions. Dickson’s skating ability is a key aspect of his incredible transition game.
Transition game
With 70 points in 68 games, there’s no question that Dickinson has the ability to produce offensively, but he’s not a lights-out offensive defenceman. Where he separates himself from the rest of the defensive class is with his incredible poise with the puck. Dickinson’s decisions with the puck have been his largest area of improvement this season.
Dickinson has the ability to snap the puck away for quick breakout passes within his own end while also having the patience and skating ability to go end to end. Furthermore, he facilitates the rush from the back end very well displaying confidence in carrying or quickly reversing a breakout that’s been shut down.
In the offensive zone, he doesn’t rush decisions with the puck but also has the ability to make quick one-touch passes. Dickinson’s offensive skill set contains all the tools to produce decently at the NHL level although it’s unlikely he will have the potential to command a top powerplay unit one day.
Size and defensive skill
At 6’3” and 198lbs, Dickinson is one of the biggest prospects in the coming draft. Combine that frame with his skating ability and defensive intelligence at only 17 years old and you get a solid top-five pick with a high ceiling and a low floor.
Although Dickinson isn’t an overtly physical defenceman, he certainly isn’t all offensive either. To be quite frank, more scouts are boasting about his defensive capabilities as opposed to his offensive.
Dickinson’s skating ability aids him in his defensive transition game. His agility makes it very difficult for defenders to carry the puck through the neutral zone and his transition and acceleration means if someone does catch him hip to hip, the 6’3” Canadian has no problem keeping up with some of the top forwards in the OHL.
Outside of his skating, he utilizes his long reach and breaks up plays with his stick frequently. As I mentioned before, he’s not the most physically aggressive player but makes up for it with his exceptional stick-checking ability and tenacious effort on the ice.
Dickinson’s areas of improvement
Shot
Although Dickinson showcased drastic improvement to his puck-moving offensive game, his shot still lacks that of an NHL calibre defender. He’s showcased his accuracy potting 18 goals this season but the velocity isn’t where you’d expect for his frame.
Despite Dickinson’s offensive ability moving the puck, he’s never really been a shoot-first type player. It definitely isn’t an asset that warrants concern at the NHL level, but it is a major factor that drops Dickinson below other two-way defending prospects like Artyom Levshunov.
Improving and utilizing his shot better is something I’d expect NHL teams to focus on heading into his pro career.
Offensive creativity
Although one of Dickinson’s biggest areas of improvement this season, it would still be good to see him continue to evolve his offensive game.
His passing and decision-making have improved drastically from last season, even showcasing some deception on some passing plays in the offensive zone. More of that deception will be exactly what could take Dickinson from a top-four two-way defender to an elite two-way defender.
He’s relied on his incredible hockey IQ more this season and cut out a lot of the rookie mistakes he made in 2022–23 showcasing that poise I discussed earlier. If he can find that same confidence at an NHL level and continue to develop his playmaking, the sky really could be the limit.
Dickinson comparables
Comparables are always difficult but they can be increasingly tough when you have a player with so much upside in so many different areas. It’s tough to tell how well Dickinson’s offensive game will transition to the NHL but Miro Heiskanen of the Dallas Stars could be a strong comparable if Dickinson continues to develop his offensive upside.
Although Heiskanen doesn’t have the same size as Dickinson, they both are incredible four-way skaters, transition players and agile defenders. Obviously, Heiskanen has developed a strong offensive game for the Dallas Stars and could be a strong comparable for Dickinson’s ceiling.
I think it’s realistic Dickinson can develop into a 30–50-point defender within his first five years in the league.
Fit with the Flames
The trade deadline saw a slew of defensive prospects come back to Calgary. Although the Flames could improve to a draft position where Dickinson could be available, it doesn’t make a ton of sense to take a top OHL defenceman when they just acquired and signed the best defenceman in the OHL, Hunter Brzustewicz.
It seems unlikely the Flames go for Dickinson if names like Lindstrom and Catton are still on the board. Only time will tell.
Summary
Dickinson is a great prospect and could turn into an elite defender at the NHL level. Although he won’t step into the NHL next season, he has the potential to be a full-time NHLer within two years if he continues at the development pace he’s on.
He’s a great defender in all three zones with a great transition game and strong decision-making skills on both ends of his game. If Dickinson improves his shot and continues to improve his playmaking, an elite top-pairing defenceman is not far from his potential.
His skating, size, and defensive skillset are enough to warrant a top 10 selection on Dickinson. He has the foundation to develop into a bonafide number one defenceman.
Risk: 1.5/5
Reward: 4.5/5
NHL comparison: Miro Heiskanen
Projection: Elite top pair defenceman
Check out all of The Win Column’s individual player profiles of selected 2024 NHL Draft prospects:
Macklin Celebrini | Ivan Demidov | Artyom Levshunov | Sam Dickinson | Cayden Lindstrom | Berkly Catton | Cole Eiserman | Zeev Buium | Konsta Helenius | Zayne Parekh | Carter Yakemchuk | Anton Silayev | Tij Iginla | Adam Jiricek | Michael Brandsegg-Nygard | Liam Greentree | Igor Chernyshov | Trevor Connelly | Aron Kiviharju | Michael Hage | Ryder Ritchie | Sacha Boisvert | Nikita Artamonov
