If you are a fan of the Calgary Flames, then you probably both loved and hated last night’s wild 6–5 victory over the Arizona Coyotes.
Nothing beats a back-and-forth contest that includes a multi-goal comeback resulting in a win on home ice. That being said, the timing of the victory came a few months too late as the Flames are just two games away from finishing a disappointing 2023–24 NHL campaign.
So despite fans most likely leaving last night’s game happy, the win could prove to be extremely costly for the team’s draft position.
Fading luck for the Flames
As it stands right now, the Flames are sitting at a 37–38–5 record which is currently ninth worst in the league. This means they currently hold a 5% chance of winning the first overall pick if the lottery balls roll their way. That being said, their odds could be better had it not been for last night’s win. Here is what the standings look like right now:
With two games left, the Flames sit at 79 points which has them unable to finish any worse than seventh last. Arizona currently sits sixth last in the NHL, but had they won in regulation they would have tied the Flames in points with one more game played. The Flames may not have finished any worse than fifth last in the league, but an 8.5% chance is better than a 5% chance statistically.
Danger looms ahead for Calgary’s lottery chances
That being said, the disaster isn’t that the Flames aren’t getting a 2.5% increase in their lottery odds, it’s that they are dangerously close to falling to the worst possible lottery position. With two games to go, if the Flames win both and the Seattle Kraken, New Jersey Devils, and Buffalo Sabres all lose their games then the Flames would finish 11th in the league. They would still hold a 3% chance of winning the lottery, but their chances of picking at 11th would be almost guaranteed.
The top of this year’s draft class is loaded, and with each victory, the Flames get further and further away from adding an All-Star talent to their prospect pool. Even if the team wants to draft Tij Iginla, the further they fall the more likely it becomes that he is already off the board.
Victories at this point in the season are moral more than anything, but for a team claiming they want to retool and compete next year, being able to add an NHL-ready rookie over a longer-term project would be a surefire hit. That being said, those moral victories need to stop if they actually want that to happen.
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