Expectations entering the 2023-24 season were high despite a frustrated Calgary Flames organization parting ways with Head Coach Darryl Sutter and General Manager Brad Treliving after a colossally disappointing end to the 2022-23 season. Their replacements, Ryan Huska and Craig Conroy respectively, came into this season with playoff aspirations, goals to give younger players opportunities, and enter the 2023-24 season with all pending UFA’s either re-signed or dealt for future assets.
Despite a post season absence for the second straight year, some unlikely heroes emerged within the Flames lineup. Within the organization, Martin Pospisil, and Connor Zary burst onto the NHL stage becoming mainstays in the top-six, and contributed with Nazem Kadri to become the Flames’ most consistent line all year.
From outside the organization, off-season acquisition Yegor Sharangovich had a bounce back year setting career highs in both goals and points with 31 and 59 respectively. Conroy’s first trade as Flames GM paid off extremely well after being heavily criticized for trading away 2022-23’s leading scorer Tyler Toffoli.
On January 31st, Craig Conroy brought back another unlikely hero in a trade with the Vancouver Canucks as “salary dump” Andrei Kuzmenko was traded to the Flames alongside prospects Hunter Brzustewicz, Joni Jurmo, a 1st round pick and a conditional 4th round pick. Kuzmenko quickly changed the narrative on the “Elias Lindholm” trade, sparking media to label it the “Andrei Kuzmenko” trade after the 28-year-old Russian scored a goal in each of his first two games.
Kuzmenko’s turbulent beginning to the 2023-24 campaign with Vancouver had many scratching their heads after a 39-goal, 74-point rookie season, which earned the 27-year-old a 2 year $11 million extension. Bruce Boudreau departed Vancouver, and with him, so did Kuzmenko’s performance, it seemed. With many wondering whether Kuzmenko’s dip was purely a coaching issue, a trade out of Vancouver was imminent and it seems Calgary was the perfect place.
Kuzmenko’s resurgence as a Flame
Kuzmenko played 43 games for the Vancouver Canucks this season posting eight goals and 21 points. His offensive performance from the year prior was dramatically reduced, averaging 0.48 pts/game despite finishing 2022-23 at a 0.91 pts/game pace.
Since being traded to the Flames, Kuzmenko’s offensive numbers have returned close to his rookie season pace.
In 29 games with the Flames Kuzmenko rung up 14 goals and 25 points, good for 0.86 pts/game. He also played a massive roll in the only powerplay success the team had all season. He scored five goals and seven assists on the powerplay, finishing third amongst the team in PP goals. Meanwhile, his 14 goals in only 29 games put him tied for sixth in team goal scoring despite playing in ~30 fewer games.
Evidently, Kuzy’s offensive abilities were on display in his trial run with the Flames. But, is it enough for the Flames to hang on to his $5.5 million dollar cap hit next season, or should they shop the hot handed Russian this offseason?
The case to extend Kuzmenko
The case to keep and extend Kuzmenko for the Calgary Flames can quite simply be boiled down to offence. On a team that has been drowned by a lack of goal scorers the last two years, Kuzmenko is a breath of fresh air.
During his time with the Flames he had a 24.1 shooting percentage, and was on a 39-goal pace in 82 games. Exactly what he scored last season in Vancouver. Plus, as his time with the team grew, Kuzmenko looked even better. In his last 11 games he scored nine goals and 17 points. Is that 126 point/season pace realistic? No, plain and simple. But, it does suggest the Russian sniper was finding a strong rhythm with his new line mates to finish the season.
Maybe it was as simple as Rick Tochett not jiving with an older Russian goal scorer that didn’t want to buy into team defence all the time.
With the Flames eager to hang on to as much goal scoring as possible, the team could hang onto Kuzmenko until the upcoming trade deadline. Due to his offensive upside and powerplay expertise, the Flames should consider offering Kuzmenko an extension only if he continues to produce and give the team effort on both ends of the ice. Additionally, term would be key for Conroy to consider as Kuzmenko will be 29 at the end of his current contract.
Kuzmenko has great potential and it appears his relationship with his teammates and coach are crucial to his success. It is for every player, but Kuzmenko seems especially susceptible to getting down on himself when things go south. At 28 years old, he’s getting up there in age but is still in the prime of his career. Although term would have to be shorter on the contract for the Flames to consider resigning Kuzmenko, he would be a powerful tool to have if the Flames return to the playoffs in the next 1-2 seasons.
The case to trade Kuzmenko
With Sharangovich, and Andrew Mangiapane both also due for a fresh contract next offseason, the Flames need to decide who should stay and who should go. Mangiapane and Sharangovich would fetch the team more on the trade market right now, but Kuzmenko could warrant plenty of interest by next season’s trade deadline if his offensive trends continue.
The other side of the coin is his effort on the defensive end. Kuzmenko lead the team in offensive zone starts at 72.6% while being dead last in defensive zone starts at 27.4%. Probably a large testament to his 55.2 even strength CF% which was the third highest on the team. Kuzmenko loves to score, stick handle and smile. But sometimes, he doesn’t love to back check, if ever.
Kuzmenko is about 130 feet short of being a 200-foot player. Although he can be allergic to his own zone at times, he still has that tremendous upside I’ve discussed throughout.
Even if the Flames don’t see Kuzmenko in a Flames jersey beyond next season’s trade deadline, the team could offload him mid season much like Vancouver did this year. Goal scoring is a hot commodity at the deadline, and Kuzmenko could fetch a healthy return if he has a bounce back year next season. His $5.5 million cap hit isn’t outrageous in today’s market and would be manageable to retain 50% of for the final three months of his contract if he’s a 70+ point player again.
The reality is, the Flames have some players waiting in the wings for opportunities and investing in all three of Kuzmenko, Sharangovich, and Mangiapane may not be in Conroy’s plans.
Maybe Conroy can take the “cap dump” from his best trade as a general manager and flip it for a first or second round pick at next year’s deadline? I’m no expert but that seems like a pretty good return on your investment.
Kuzmenko countdown
Entering the NHL as a rookie after more than half a decade in the KHL is bound to show in a players game. Kuzmenko has great ability and needs to feel comfy to be successful. He has high spirits and has quickly become a beloved player amongst his teammates, fans, and the media. So far, that comfort has been found in Calgary, but could wear off like it did in Vancouver.
He’s a pat on the back as opposed to kick in the butt type player and Huska needs to continue to build that trust with Kuzmenko. If the Flames considered trading Kuzmenko and his hypothetical 39 goal pace next season before the deadline, the destination would have to be right for these exact reasons. As much as he can jump in and pop some goals for you, he’s a liability defensively and has to be utilized correctly. Keep him hot and it looks like the guy could score 50+ next year. But, if you cool him off at all, this whole discussion could be for not.
Personally, I’d like the Flames to try and resign Kuzmenko at a team friendly deal. He’s valuable on the powerplay and his defensive issues can be managed at even strength if he produces like we know he can. So far, the team hasn’t had any other goal scorers emerge besides Kuzmenko and Sharangovich, and as far as I’m concerned, they desperately need both.
The draft is upcoming and if the Flames select an offensive player, goal scoring will be a priority. Today’s NHL is all about scoring and this team has been victimized by many one goal losses the last two seasons. The retool has begun in Calgary and Kuzmenko and his positive vibes could be very beneficial to turning this thing around before a new arena is even built.
If things do go sideways, Kuzmenko has still increased his trade value from the time the Flames acquired him and realistically can make back their investment for the Russian sniper. Plus, he was far from the center piece of the Lindholm trade and is a bonus asset at this point for Conroy.
All in all, it’s a win/win for the Flames either way. But there’s something about that Robin Williams-Flubber haircut and the sound of goal horns that make you want to keep the guy around.
