Samuel Honzek was the Calgary Flames’ first-round draft pick—selected 16th overall—in the 2023 NHL Draft. The Slovakian forward was selected 10th overall by the Western Hockey League’s Vancouver Giants in the 2022 CHL Import Draft and immediately became one of their top offensive weapons, scoring 23 goals and 56 points in 43 games in his first year in North America.
There’s a lot to like about Honzek; he’s got NHL-ready size—listed at 6’4″ and 186 lbs—he skates well, has good hands, and has good offensive instincts. He’s had no trouble putting up points at every level of hockey up to this point. Now, he could be more consistent, but that’s something you see with a lot of young hockey players. So far, I’ll bet you’re thinking, “Yes, it’s too early, you goof!”
Honzek missed two months of 2023–24 due to injury
Honzek missed the first two months of this season after suffering an injury in a preseason game with the Flames. Upon his return in early December, he was named captain of the Giants and named to Slovakia’s World Junior Championship roster. His impact on the offensive end of the ice was felt immediately for the Giants, as he scored three times and recorded seven points through five games. Honzek would go on to have a solid WJC, scoring three goals and an assist in five games for Slovakia.
However, his production has dipped since returning to the Giants. In 26 games, he’s managed seven goals and 23 points, a far cry from his pre-WJC production. I know it’s early in his career, and he’s got a lot of runway ahead of him. Yes, he plays for a bad Giants team. And yes, I know he missed two months of this season due to injury. But should we start to worry about this disappointing production from last year’s first-round pick?
Breaking down Honzek’s 2023–24 production
As I said, Honzek immediately picked up right where he left off upon his return scoring at a 1.4 points per game pace, but has dipped since his return from the WJC.
| Games (GP) | Goals | Goals/Game | Points | Points/Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 5 (5) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
| 6 to 14 (9) | 2 | 0.2 | 10 | 1.1 |
| 15 to 22 (8) | 3 | 0.4 | 7 | 0.9 |
| 23 to 28 (6) | 1 | 0.2 | 3 | 0.5 |
| 29 to 31 (3) | 1 | 0.3 | 3 | 1.0 |
| 6 to 31 (26) | 7 | 0.3 | 23 | 0.9 |
| 2022–23 (56) | 23 | 0.5 | 56 | 1.3 |
As you can see, since returning from the WJC, Honzek has consistently hovered in the 0.3 goals per game and 0.9 points per game ranges. There was that one span, though, where he managed only three points in six games. Honzek’s first five games were more in line with the production we saw in his draft year.
Knowing that players like Gabriel Perreault, Quentin Musty, and Bradley Nadeau were selected in the first round after Honzek and are all having exceptional years in their respective leagues makes Honzek’s numbers look even worse. Let’s not forget, though, that he’s still scoring at nearly a point-per-game pace for a team that’s middle-of-the-pack in goals scored.
All that said, while a point-per-game production in a player’s D+1 year isn’t bad, you want to see progression. In Honzek’s case, he briefly showed a slight uptick in production before regressing sharply. You always want to see improvement in production from your offensive prospects, and Honzek has stalled a bit this year. The fact that he’s sixth in scoring for the Giants despite missing half the season is a good sign, though.
How Honzek’s D+1 stacks up against other players
There are a few names that immediately come to mind when I think of players of Honzek’s stature who were drafted in the first round in recent years, so let’s see how he stacks up against them. I also wanted to see how he fares compared to fellow Flame Connor Zary, who’s established himself as an important piece of the puzzle moving forward.
The table below shows the point-per-game production (rounded up to the nearest tenth) of several players in their draft year and D+1 year.
| Player | Drafted | League | D+0 | D+1 | Change (+/-) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cozens | 2019 (7th – Sabres) | WHL | 1.2 | 1.7 | +0.5 |
| Daniil But | 2023 (12th – Coyotes) | KHL | 0.1 | 0.4 | +0.3 |
| Filip Bystedt | 2022 (27th – Sharks) | SHL | 0.1 | 0.4 | +0.3 |
| Connor Zary | 2020 (24th – Flames) | WHL | 1.5 | 1.6 | +0.1 |
| Conor Geekie | 2022 (11th – Coyotes) | WHL | 1.1 | 1.2 | +0.1 |
| Nathan Gaucher | 2022 (22nd – Ducks) | QMJHL | 0.9 | 1.0 | +0.1 |
| David Edstrom | 2023 (32nd – Golden Knights) | SHL | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Matthew Wood | 2023 (15th – Predators) | NCAA | 1.0 | 0.8 | -0.2 |
| Samuel Honzek | 2023 (16th – Flames) | WHL | 1.3 | 1.0 | -0.3 |
Most players I looked at showed—or are showing—progression in their D+1 season. What’s concerning here is that Honzek has had the biggest drop-off in production from his draft year to his D+1 year. Zary’s sample size is, admittedly, quite small due to the pandemic-shortened 2020–21 season, but he was still able to show progression from one season to the next.
Is this enough reason to be concerned about Honzek?
While we have not seen the type of production you would hope for from Honzek, there are still the mitigating factors I previously mentioned that we need to consider in evaluating his performance this season. First and foremost, he missed half his D+1 season due to injury. Second, his team as a whole has struggled to score. Third, he is just outside the top five in team scoring despite missing half the season.
Looking at Honzek’s numbers—especially compared to his peers, I wouldn’t blame you for having some concern about his D+1 dip in production. However, when weighing those stats against the circumstances of his season, I think it’s safe to say that it’s far too early to write him off.
