We have reached the halfway point of the 2023–24 season. The Calgary Flames have completed 43 games, sitting with a 20–18–5 record for 45 points and a points percentage of .523. By points, they are 10th in the Western Conference, but if we go by points percentage they fall two spots to 12th.
At the start of the year, I placed expectations for each Flames player. I wasn’t the most optimistic but I wasn’t exactly pessimistic either. With the so far interesting season the Flames have had, let’s see how these expectations stand up.
Forward
Jonathan Huberdeau
Expectations: 70–80 points, rebuild 5v5 offence
Jonathan Huberdeau has been a weird player this year. There have been times when he has looked like himself and times when he looks like one of the worst players on the team. He’s had two stretches (one currently going) of eight points in eight games and then on the other hand he went almost the entirety of December without a point. His 23 points in 43 games puts him on pace for 43 points—another disappointing year of production. On a positive note, he has rebuilt his 5v5 offence and has looked more like his former self recently, so if that continues we may see a different verdict when we re-visit.
Verdict: Expectations not met
Elias Lindholm
Expectations: 30+ goals and 70+ points
I had expected Lindholm to prove himself as a true 1C this season and return fully to form, but that has not happened. A common trend this year, but Lindholm has been another weird player. He flip-flops between producing and being unnoticeable. He has eight goals and 28 points in the 43 games so far which puts him on pace for 15 goals and 53 points. I think this year it’s become more clear that Lindholm is more of a high-end 2C as he’s not the most noticeable player even when he is hot.
Verdict: Expectations not met
Nazem Kadri
Expectations: 50–60 points and good underlying numbers
After a slow start to the season, Nazem Kadri has shown himself to be one of the Flames’ best players this season. In the 43 games, he has 34 points, which is a pace for 64 in 82 games. Kadri has also kept his performance of being an analytical darling as he has a +10.1 sG score from HockeyViz.com’s model. He is currently out-producing the expectations I had placed and definitely has way better analytics than I expected.
Verdict: Expectations surpassed
Andrew Mangiapane
Expectations: 20+ goals, 50+ points, fix defensive game
Andrew Mangiapane has had a pretty streaky year. At certain points, he looks like he is flat-out struggling to get anything going but then he has periods where he looks like himself. This season proves again to never split up the line of Mangiapane-Backlund-Coleman as that’s when they all play best. Mangiapane has improved his defensive game and currently has 25 points and eight goals which is pace for 48 and 15. He hasn’t met my expectations exactly but I’m still happy with his play.
Verdict: Expectations met
Dillon Dube
Expectations: 40–50 points
Dillon Dube has arguably been the worst Flame this season. When given the opportunity, he can’t perform and just hasn’t looked good at all. I’ve never been a big fan and should’ve trusted the analytics a bit more but I expected him to keep close pace to last season’s production. This has definitely not been the case as he has seven points in 41 games.
Verdict: Expectations not met
Yegor Sharangovich
Expectations: 20 goals, 40 points, build 5v5 game
A welcome surprise as of late has been Yegor Sharangovich. He just recently scored a hat trick against the Arizona Coyotes and after a rough start, has 20 points in his last 20 games. Currently sitting with 17 goals and 30 points, Sharangovich is on pace 32 goals and 57 points. His 5v5 game hasn’t improved as much as one would hope but improvement is improvement. Even as a fan of Sharangovich, it looks like I placed my expectations too low so far.
Verdict: Expectations surpassed
Mikael Backlund
Expectations: 40–45 points, strong two-way play continues
As his first season as Flames captain, Mikael Backlund has continued his steady game. Backlund has continued to be great at both ends of the ice, making impacts offensively and defensively. His production has fallen a bit from last season which was to be expected for a 34-year-old. 24 points so har has him on pace for 45 which would be a 11-point dip from last year but still solid nonetheless.
Verdict: Expectations met
Blake Coleman
Expectations: 30–40 points
I think if you told anyone that Blake Coleman would be the Flames’ best forward before this season began they would laugh at you. Coleman has come out of nowhere and completely stepped up for the Flames.
He has 19 goals, 18 assists for 37 points in 43 games which puts him very close to career-highs in each with just under half a season to go. His 36-goal and 70-point pace is completely mind-boggling. It’s funny to look back because even though I’ve always liked Coleman I said specifically: “Coleman’s totals probably won’t launch out of nowhere.”
Verdict: Expectations definitely surpassed
Adam Ruzicka
Expectations: Problems continue: 30 points max, don’t continue: 45–50 points
I don’t know exactly what to say about Adam Ruzicka. At the start of the year, he looked quite promising having four points in the first four games, but he has only had five points since. Ruzicka did face an injury but it’s not exactly an excuse. His problems of inconsistency and nonuse of his size have held him back again. I did say 30 points max and he’s on pace for 20 in a full year but I really thought he’d have a big year so I am disappointed.
Verdict: Expectations not met
Walker Duehr
Expectations: 20 points
Walker Duehr was coming off a hot streak to end the 2022–23 season and it looked like he was destined to have a solid 2023–24. I thought 20 points was fair, with the possibility of him surprising, but with the acquisition of A.J. Greer off of waivers and the surprises of Connor Zary and Martin Pospisil, Duehr has served as a healthy scratch for a majority of the season. Duehr has had four points in his 18 games and would be on pace for 18 points in a full season. He hasn’t exactly had the season I expected but it’s not exactly his fault.
Verdict: Expectations met
A.J. Greer/Dryden Hunt
Expectations: 10–15 points, energy guy, good defence
With Dryden Hunt looking like he was going fill a fourth line role at the start of the year, I set expectations for him. But then the Flames claimed A.J. Greer who took his role. The good thing is Hunt and Greer play similar games, so I can use Hunt’s expectations for Greer. Greer has 10 points in 42 games which gives him a 19 point pace. He has also provided tones of energy and strong two-way play. Greer has been a very successful waiver claim for the Flames.
Verdict: Expectations surpassed
Matt Coronato
Expectations: 35 points in a smaller role, 45–60 points in a top-six role
With Matt Coronato’s strong preseason, he had earned an opening night roster spot. Many, myself included, were expecting big things due to his preseason. Unfortunately, Coronato has spent the majority of the year in the AHL, which hasn’t been a bad thing. In 27 AHL games, he has 29 points and has made the All-Star game. Despite placing NHL expectations to see him spend most of his time in the AHL, I’m still happy with Coronato’s development but I do have to call it what it is and say that he has not met expectations.
Verdict: Expectations not met
Connor Zary and Martin Pospisil did not receive expectations because they did not make the opening roster but have easily surpassed whatever I would have expected.
Defenceman
Mackenzie Weegar
Expectations: 35–45 points, rebuild offence, continue great defensive play
Mackenzie Weegar is once again the Flames’ best defenceman. Last year, Weegar posted great defensive numbers, but struggled offensively due to being put in a shutdown role. Now with more offensive freedom, he is complementing his defensive game with production. Weegar has nine goals, already surpassing his career high, and 26 points. This puts him fourth in goal scoring by a defenceman and top 20 for points by a defenceman. He’s on pace for 17 goals and 50 points, which would be a career-high in both.
Verdict: Expectations surpassed
Rasmus Andersson
Expectations: 55–65 points, improving overall two-way play
With the way the Flames use him and how his career trajectory looked, I thought this year may finally be the year Rasmus Andersson becomes the true number one defenceman. While Andersson has been good, he hasn’t been a number one.
His production really hasn’t taken a step forward, as his 24 points in 39 games puts him on pace for 50 points in a full 82-game season. This places him perfectly with the last two seasons. In terms of two-play, his offence has continued to shine but his defence is not exactly a strength. I think this season paints that Andersson for the past few years is who he is and I’m happy with that. I do think my expectations were a bit too high but I unfortunately have to say he didn’t meet them.
Verdict: Expectations not met
Noah Hanifin
Expectations: 35–45 points, solid two-play
There really isn’t too much to say about Noah Hanifin this season. He continues to be a solid overall defenceman who will play top pair minutes. He has seven goals and 23 points in this season’s 43 games which puts him on pace for a career-high in goals with 13 and 43 points. I did think that what we’ve seen from Hanifin from the past few seasons was what he was and that prediction has shown to be true.
Verdict: Expectations met
Chris Tanev
Expectations: Be phenomenal defensively, 15–20 points
Chris Tanev has continued to be one of the best defensive defencemen in the league. He still smashes every single analytical model defensively and you can very easily see it on the ice. While production isn’t important for him, he has eight points in 40 games which paces for 16 which meets the safe bet of 15–20 points.
Verdict: Expectations met
Jordan Oesterle
Expectations: Be good at least one way, 10–15 points
Jordan Oesterle was expected to be the sixth defenceman, but will likely be the eighth when everyone is healthy. Oesterle had a 12-game stint in the AHL earlier in the year after struggling but has made his way back to the NHL due to trading Nikita Zadorov and injuries. Oesterle has two points in 16 games, on pace for 10 points and hasn’t really played that well. His offence has declined and his defence has improved but it’s around league average so not that good but still good enough I guess.
Verdict: Expectations met
Dennis Gilbert
Expectations: Five points as the seventh defenceman
With the Flames signing Oesterle to a one-way deal, I thought Gilbert would be the seventh defenceman so I wasn’t expecting much. Gilbert actually got the sixth defenceman role over Oesterle. He has already surpassed my point expectation with seven in 28 games and he’s been pretty good defensively.
Verdict: Expectations surpassed
Just like Zary and Pospisil, DeSimone did not get expectations due to not making the opening night roster but has definitely surpassed the ones I would’ve set.
Goalies
Jacob Markstrom
Expectations: 22–30 wins, 2.70–2.80 GAA, .903–.910 SV%, 2–6 GSAx
Jacob Markstrom has been the Flames’ MVP this year and I was definitely not expecting that. I said he likely wouldn’t return to Vezina form, but he has. In 26 games, Markstrom has 12 wins, a 2.59 GAA, .912 SV%, and a GSAx of 22.75. Among starters, Markstrom is 10th in GAA, 9th in SV%, and 1st in GSAx, which is absolutely outstanding and he is one of, if not the best goalie this season
Verdict: Expectations definitely surpassed
Dan Vladar
Expectations: 13–20 wins, 2.70–2.80 GAA, .900–.908 SV%, -2 to 2 GSAx
Dan Vladar has done the exact opposite of what Jacob Markstrom has done. I expected Vladar to take steps forward this year and truly show himself as a potential starter and he hasn’t. When Markstrom went down with an injury, he lost the crease to Dustin Wolf before regaining it back. In 13 games, Vladar has posted six wins, a GAA of 3.42, SV% of .883, and -7.5 GSAx. These are the worst stats of Vladar’s career so far and it looks like has hasn’t improved.
Verdict: Expectations not met
How have expectations panned out so far?
Despite trending towards having a similar record to last year, the Flames have been far more enjoyable this season. A major reason for this was the lower expectations heading into the season. Most players have either met or surpassed expectations with Blake Coleman and Jacob Markstrom having over exceeded
Then you throw in the surprises of Connor Zary, Martin Pospisil, and Nick DeSimone and it gives even better. While there is still a fair share of players not meeting expectations and some have been disappointing, most seem to be a case of setting them too high and still being okay with the current outcome or being able to find positives.
