A new season of Calgary Flames hockey is upon so that means it’s time for expectations. When we did this last year, the Flames were coming off a crazy offseason with many big changes. This year on the other, the offseason was slower and not many changes were made. The Flames are betting on bouncebacks from many key players such as Jonathan Huberdeau. Another thing they are hoping to bank on is breakouts and big years from rookies.
With that said, let’s begin with the expectations for each Calgary Flames forward.
Jonathan Huberdeau
Jonathan Huberdeau is coming off an extremely disappointing year. He recorded the worst season-to-season point drop-off in NHL history going from 115 to only 55. A big part of that was likely due to Darryl Sutter‘s system and usage of him. Now with a head coach willing to give him more offensive freedom in Ryan Huska, Huberdeau looks to bounce back.
For each player, we will look at an isolated impact chart from HockeyViz.com.
We can see that Huberdeau struggled terribly at 5v5 offence which was a main source for his sudden degrade. Although when you look at everything else, his season seemed positive. He still performed well on the power play, his setting was solid, and his sG (a new stat derived by McCurdy similar to WAR) was positive.
Huberdeau is due for a resurgence of some kind. He likely won’t return to his 100-point form, but it is fair to expect him to be around a point per game. The expectation for Huberdeau is for him to score 70–80 points while building up his 5v5 offence.
Elias Lindholm
Losing two elite linemates and not being able to build chemistry with the supposed new one was the problem that made Elias Lindholm have a bit of decline. 22 goals and 64 points isn’t bad but that’s a 20-goal and 18-point drop from the previous season. With the hope Lindholm and Huberdeau click this season, Lindholm’s totals should rise.
Going off of the chart, Lindholm had an interesting year. He was good at 5v5 offence and about the same on power play. His penalty killing abilities allowed him to shut down chances successfully while down a man. Where the negative impact comes is his 5v5 defence. Most people will tell you that Lindholm has good two-way play and I would agree. I don’t think it’s as good as the common fan would think, but I don’t think it’s as bad as most analytic models say.
The expectation for Lindholm in the 2023–24 is he should be able to return to a 30+ goal form and get 70+ points.
Nazem Kadri
Like Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri had a large drop off in points this season. Kadri’s point decline was a bit more expected than Huberdeau’s due to his age and how he had a career year on a Cup-winning team. Many fans have slotted Kadri as a mentor to younger players this season and that’s likely the role he’ll take.
Kadri actually had a really good season according to analytics. His 5v5 offence was great, defended strong, and performed well with the special teams time he had. His +8.1 sG is pretty impressive too.
Kadri will likely have a similar season to last. Good underlying numbers and 50–60 points.
Andrew Mangiapane
Just like every other player listed so far, Andrew Mangiapane had a down year. A strong factor to this was very likely his left shoulder injury which he played with all season that he has now received surgery. Back at 100% health, Mangiapane looks to have a bounce-back year.
Mangiapane was still a really strong play driver at 5v5 last year, only problem was he lacked finishing. Despite him posting good penalty kill results, Mangiapane’s results at 5v5 defence really took a hit, which was a strength for his full career.
We should expect Mangiapane to return to his strong defensive play and also see him pick up 20+ goals and 50+ points.
Dillon Dube
Dillon Dube is the first player in this piece to have had a career season. He tied his career-high in goals with 18 and passed his previous career in points by 13, scoring 45. Dube’s an interesting player because he really could regress or finally have a full breakout.
The HockeyViz model really does not like Dillon Dube. His 5v5 offence and defence results were atrocious and everything except special teams were negative. This gave Dube a very bad sG rating of -9.2. Dube’s never had good underlying numbers, but I’ve never seen them this bad and don’t think he played this poorly last season.
The expectation for Dube is to finish with roughly the same amount of points as he did in 2022–23. So anywhere between 40–50 points.
Yegor Sharangovich
Traded for last year’s leading scoring, Tyler Toffoli, Yegor Sharangovich is another player the Flames are banking on having a bounce back in 2023–24. In the previous season, he dropped from 24 goals and 46 points to 13 goals and 30 points. In a bigger role, Sharangovich’s production should rise.
Sharangovich struggled heavily last season. His 5v5 offensive impact was rough, his defensive was even worse. He couldn’t get much going on the power play and couldn’t finish or set up plays. His penalty killing did give him a bit of a positive boost though.
Sharangovich will likely bounce back in some way this season. I don’t think it’s too farfetched to expect him to put up roughly 20 goals and 40 points while building on his 5v5 game.
Mikael Backlund
The newly named captain is coming off a career season at the age of 34. Mikael Backlund scored 56 points while playing a middle-six centre role and placing top 10 in Selke voting. With an extension in place, Backlund is looking to have another solid year.
Just like most years, Backlund had really nice analytical results. His two-way play is highlighted by his dominant score in both the offensive and defensive zones. He also complemented that by having solid results on both special teams. His struggle to finish brought him down a bit but it wasn’t enough to drag everything else down.
I think we can expect a little bit of a decline in Backlund this season. Around 40–45 points while continuing good two-play seems reasonable for him.
Blake Coleman
Blake Coleman is the third player on the Flames who technically had a career year. He beat his previous career high in points by 2 by putting up 38. Coleman is one-third of the best analytical line in hockey and is likely going to have another decent year.
Coleman continued his trend of having solid results at both ends of the ice. Not to the extent that Backlund did but still good. His penalty-killing was even better shutting down play in dangerous such as the slot.
Coleman’s totals probably won’t launch out of nowhere and I think we can expect him to have another season of putting up 30–40 points.
Adam Ruzicka
Adam Ruzicka was very interesting to watch this past year and it will likely be the same case this season. Ruzicka looked poised to breakout after scoring 20 points in 24 games. This all stopped after a few bad games and he was demoted to the fourth line or healthy scratch. Ruzicka will probably get an extensive look in the top-nine or top-six this season and he’ll have to capitalize.
Despite having an offensive hot streak, Ruzicka’s negative impact both at 5v5 and on the power play makes sense. He isn’t exactly a play driver at this point and is more of a subtle and perimeter player which is fine. His 5v5 defensive results are very nice to see, especially when you consider that he did well at shutting down the upper slot and around the net.
Ruzicka is a tough player to give expectations for. If he can’t get passed his inconsistencies, unwillingness to use his size, and moves around the lineup all year, I feel as if 30 points is a fair maximum. But if he can get past those problems and find a spot in the lineup, we may see a breakout of around 45–50 points.
Walker Duehr
Walker Duehr didn’t earn his spot on the Flames until late into last season, but he finished hot. In 27 games played, he scored 11 points. Seven of those points came in the final 12 games of the season which is not too shabby for a guy who was on the fourth line.
The HockeyViz model has come really like Walker Duehr in his small stint so far. His offensive impact is really good at a +9% with deep red spots all over the zone. While not as good as the offence, his defence was still solid, being just above league average.
Duehr could surprise us but I think it’s quite fair to expect him to score around 20 points considering he’ll be on the fourth line.
Matt Coronato
Matt Coronato has become the talk amongst Flames fans in recent days. The 2021 13th overall pick has only played one NHL game but is turning heads this preseason. Coronato has four goals and three assists for seven points in five games. It’s safe to say Coronato has locked himself a spot on the opening night roster and maybe even a bigger role for the season.
Expectations for Coronato will vary. If he doesn’t play too big of a role, around 35 points should be fair. If he sticks in the top-six for the whole season, we could see anywhere between 45–60 points for his rookie year.
Jakob Pelletier
Many were excited for Jakob Pelletier to play his first full season in the NHL this year, but a nasty hit in the preseason injured his shoulder. He underwent successful shoulder surgery and has been rendered out as long-term. The longest time recovery from shoulder surgery can take is six months which would put him out until April.
I would love to make an expectation for Pelletier, but for now, we all wish for a speedy recovery.
Dryden Hunt
With Pelletier out, a spot on the Flames roster opens. The likeliest to take this spot is Dryden Hunt. Hunt was acquired at the deadline last year and finished out the season with the Calgary Wranglers of the AHL scoring 15 points in 17 games.
Hunt won’t put up a crazy amount of points, expect something probably like 10–15. He should provide good energy and defensive numbers on the fourth line.
A year of hoping
With minimal changes to the forward group, the Flames have to hope that they get the bounce-backs and breakouts they want from the players under new head coach Ryan Huska.
Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire
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