TWC Playoff Power Rankings: Week 4

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Welcome back to the TWC Playoff Power Rankings!

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.

For this year’s playoffs, initial rankings and performance was primarily impacted by the Qualifier and Round Robin series that took place before the start of the official Stanley Cup Playoffs. Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Playoff Power Rankings ? Leave us a comment and let us know!


RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
1
Vegas Golden Knights2-17-21154.7
2+1
New York Islanders3-17-21137.5
3+3
Tampa Bay Lightning3-07-21135.6
4+1
Dallas Stars2-17-31058.6
5-1
Colorado Avalanche1-25-4995.6
6-4
Boston Bruins0-35-4976.5
7+2
Montreal Canadiens0-02-4897.3
8-1
Philadelphia Flyers1-35-5895.7
9-1
Vancouver Canucks1-25-5890.9
10
St Louis Blues0-02-4884.5
11
Calgary Flames0-02-4815.3
12
Columbus Blue Jackets0-01-4738.5
13
Washington Capitals0-01-4727.2
14
Carolina Hurricanes0-01-4726.5
15
Chicago Blackhawks0-01-4703.5
16
Arizona Coyotes0-01-4696.7

Power Ranking Notables

This week, we’ve removed the play-in round and the round robin from factoring into the TWCScores. That does change somethings for better or for worse, but do note that

When you have a losing record over the span of a week, you might fall down in the rankings compared to a team that’s already eliminated. Rather than outright removing all eliminated teams, by keeping them in they provide benchmarks for what good underlying numbers can do to prop up a team with no additional games played, or what bad underlying numbers can do to sink a team completely.

As recency is automatically factored into the model, the absolute values of the TWCScores for teams already eliminated have decreased, but the contributions of their final playoff stats remains the same in the model. Take their values as a quick way to compare games and teams from Round One to the performances of teams in Round Two.

What does this all say about the play that the Montreal Canadiens, who rose two spots despite being eliminated in Round One? Well one, that they had stretches that included some dominant play with numbers strong enough to secure them a solid TWCScore even with recency accounted for. And that is true, for every metric that’s included in the model other than win/loss record, the Canadiens shone in their six games played.

More importantly, what does this actually say about the Philadelphia Flyers and the Vancouver Canucks? Both teams posted losing records over the past week and are on the brink of elimination, and they also represent the two teams remaining in the playoffs sitting at exactly .500 win percentage. The underlying numbers aren’t great right now for either team, and that’s a strong reason why they fell behind a team eliminated long ago.

Keep in mind that the raw TWCScores show that neither the Flyers or Canucks are far behind the Canadiens at all. It’s just a big red flag for both teams. The Flyers have had a back and forth series with the New York Islanders and have had good metrics to back that up, but they just weren’t able to secure a win in Game 4, when they needed it the most.

The Canucks on the other hand, got off to a good start against the Vegas Golden Knights, but have been consistently outplayed. They’re hanging on as best as they can, but it’s not looking great for them at this point.


Biggest Gainer & Loser

Tampa Bay Lightning (+3)

This week’s biggest gainer goes to the team that went 3-0 after falling behind early in their series 1-0. The Lighting rallied back against the Bruins and are on the cusp of moving onto Round Three.

Of course, a 3-0 record will bump a team up heavily in the playoffs, but they’re also shining in other areas, particularly with expected goals. They’re getting better quality shots and chances than their counterpart, and they’ve been rewarded with wins.

Boston Bruins (-4)

This week’s biggest loser goes to the team that went 0-3 after going up early in their series 1-0. Yes, there’s a bit of a parallel here. The Bruins dropped three straight games, and they were mostly outplayed.

Though their Game 3 setback was painful, it was actually their performance in Game 2 that they were significantly outplayed in every metric, contributing to their big drop down the rankings. They have work to do if they want any chance to extending their playoff run.

Previous Weeks:

TWC Playoff Power Rankings: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3


What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.


All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

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