TWC Playoff Power Rankings: Week 3

Welcome back to the TWC Playoff Power Rankings!

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.

For this year’s playoffs, initial rankings and performance was primarily impacted by the Qualifier and Round Robin series that took place before the start of the official Stanley Cup Playoffs. Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Playoff Power Rankings ? Leave us a comment and let us know!


RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
1
Vegas Golden Knights2-08-11200.9
2
New York Islanders1-17-21114.1
3+1
Colorado Avalanche2-16-31095.5
4-1
Philadelphia Flyers2-17-21064.5
5
Tampa Bay Lightning2-16-31048.2
6+5
Boston Bruins3-05-41013.1
7+5
Dallas Stars3-05-4979.2
8-2
Vancouver Canucks2-27-4969.2
9-1
Calgary Flames0-25-5934.3
10-1
Montreal Canadiens1-25-5933.9
11-4
Carolina Hurricanes0-24-4924.5
12+1
Columbus Blue Jackets0-24-6854.1
13-3
Arizona Coyotes0-24-5847.5
14
Chicago Blackhawks0-14-5827.3
15
St Louis Blues1-22-6809
16
Washington Capitals1-12-6769.5

Power Ranking Notables

Round one is in the books and eight NHL teams now remain in the bubble. With the second round of the NHL Playoffs underway, there’s lots to catch up on and assess from the past week of hockey.

The Vegas Golden Knights eliminated the Chicago Blackhawks and then took a commanding game one victory from the Vancouver Canucks last night, remaining our number one team. Fueled by strong underlying numbers and the best record in the bubble, the Knights are setting the pace for other teams to follow. Ranked first in CF%, SCF%, xGF%, and HDCF%, the Knights are simply a powerhouse right now. A key piece of the puzzle has been Robin Lehner who has been one of the best deadline acquisitions. Although Allan Walsh would disagree, the Knights goaltending tandem has been an excellent plan by Vegas’ management.

The New York Islanders remain our number two team this week after making quick work of the Washington Capitals in round one. The Islanders are simply the best coached team in hockey right now, as Barry Trotz is just playing his own game. It’s ironic that the team he won a Stanley Cup with, and that wouldn’t re-sign him, was the team he most recently eliminated.

The Islanders have a very interesting second round match up with the Philadelphia Flyers, ranked fourth on our list this week. Coming off a series victory against Montreal, the Flyers will need Carter Hart to continue his hot play and for some of the big guns to put up big numbers.

Don’t worry, we didn’t miss our number three team, the Colorado Avalanche. Although they are currently down 1-0 in their series against Dallas, they actually ended up gaining a spot thanks to their domination over the Arizona Coyotes. Nathan MacKinnon is easily the best player in the bubble right now, and Nazem Kadri is having a heck of a playoff run thus far. The Avalanche are in a bit of trouble after losing <a href="http://<a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/g/grubaph01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Philipp GrubauerPhilipp Grubauer for what looks to be a long period of time. For sure a team to keep a close eye on.

Finally the last two teams not discussed, the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning. Currently second round opponents, with Boston taking the early series lead, they find themselves 5th and 6th on our list. Both teams winning percentage is what is keeping them below other teams, who have only lost one or two games. Boston is really surging (see below) and Tampa needs to be concerned. Don’t be surprised that if the numbers keep going the way they are, Boston overtakes them next week (depending on the series)


Biggest Gainer & Loser

Boston Bruins & Dallas Stars (+5)

Boston made quick work of the Hurricanes, and another win against the Lightning for a perfect 3-0 week. That easily gives the team a big jump.

The Dallas Stars also used a heck of a week to move up five spots. Three straight wins against the Calgary Flames, including an elimination game with seven unanswered goals, the Stars came out firing again against the Avalanche. Once maligned for not being able to score, Dallas can’t stop now. Miro Heiskanen is in a league of his own, and the top line is finally finding their stride. It won’t be as easy as everyone initially thought for the Avalanche.

Carolina Hurricanes (-4)

Advanced stats only take you so far, after a five game loss to the Bruins the Hurricanes felt the biggest drop from elimination.

Previous Weeks:

TWC Playoff Power Rankings: Week 1 | Week 2


What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.


All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

3 thoughts on “TWC Playoff Power Rankings: Week 3

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