TWC Playoff Power Rankings: Week 1

Welcome back to the TWC Playoff Power Rankings!

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.

For this year’s playoffs, initial rankings and performance was primarily impacted by the Qualifier and Round Robin series that took place before the start of the official Stanley Cup Playoffs. Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Playoff Power Rankings ? Leave us a comment and let us know!


RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
1
Carolina Hurricanes0-03-01247.1
2
Philadelphia Flyers0-03-01217.5
3
Vegas Golden Knights0-03-01212.8
4
Calgary Flames0-03-11145.9
5
Colorado Avalanche0-02-11121.8
6
New York Islanders0-03-11089.4
7
Vancouver Canucks0-03-11040.2
8
Arizona Coyotes0-03-11030.3
9
Chicago Blackhawks0-03-1993.6
10
Montreal Canadiens0-03-1992.5
11
Columbus Blue Jackets0-03-2986.5
12
Tampa Bay Lightning0-02-1979.4
13
Washington Capitals0-01-2857.6
14
Boston Bruins0-00-3716.9
15
Dallas Stars0-00-2610.2
16
St Louis Blues0-00-2550.1

Power Ranking Notables

After going months without any hockey and then being bombarded by daily content, the hockey gods have rewarded us with the official start of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Although the Qualifier and Round Robin games whet our appetite, the real deal is about to begin. Eight series lie ahead for the 16 remaining teams:

Western Conference

  • Colorado Avalanche vs. Arizona Coyotes
  • Vegas Golden Knights vs. Chicago Blackhawks
  • St. Louis Blues vs. Vancouver Canucks
  • Dallas Stars vs. Calgary Flames

Eastern Conference

  • Philadelphia Flyers vs. Montreal Canadiens
  • Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
  • Washington Capitals vs. New York Islanders
  • Boston Bruins vs. Carolina Hurricanes

These playoff series offer a plethora of story lines to watch in the upcoming week. It will be fascinating to who ends up hoisting the Cup when it is all said and done.

With the playoffs getting underway today, the TWC Playoff Power Rankings are making their triumphant return. The model that was used to rank the remaining 16 teams was derived from the stats obtained in the Qualifier and Round Robin games. This provides the most up to date and current ranking of all teams in terms of their advanced statistics, but also their current trajectory. Although a team may have finished with the best record during the regular season, that was a lifetime ago. One thing is for sure: the results of the play-in have shown how little the regular season results actually mattered.

I don’t think it should be a shock to anyone that follows the TWC Power Rankings that the Carolina Hurricanes ended up at the top of the rankings. The absolute analytical darlings for the past few seasons, the Hurricanes continued their stellar play to a Qualifier Round sweep of the New York Rangers. Although the Rangers are likely content that they are going to walk away with Alexis Lafreniere, the Hurricanes are not satisfied with just the three games. Thanks in large part to Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov, the Canes are on an absolute roll. They will match up against the Bruins in the first round, but this does not appear to be the same team that fell in last years Eastern Conference Final.

Rounding out the top three, the Philadelphia Flyers and Vegas Golden Knights quietly built up a strong resume in the round robin games in their respective conferences. While the majority of the league was focused on who would be in the playoffs, the Flyers and Golden Knights came out and won all three games they played. Well deserving of their conferences’ number one seeds, both teams will be up against tough underdogs in the Montreal Canadiens and Chicago Blackhawks. If they continue to play the way that they have though, there shouldn’t be any problems…

In a surprise ranking, the Calgary Flames take the number four spot among playoff teams. After beating the Jets in four games, the Flames used a third ranked xGF% and fourth ranked SV% numbers to catapult up our rankings. Heading into the playoffs as the sixth seed, the Flames are riding a very hot Cam Talbot who is had a strong resurgence against the Jets. Dallas presents and intriguing matchup, but if they are able to match their play in the qualifier, they should be in a good position.

Moving down our list, the Colorado Avalanche round out the top five as they face the Arizona Coyotes, a team placing eighth in the rankings. On paper the Avalanche are the clear favorites, but the Coyotes put up a great effort against the Nashville Predators in the Qualifying Round. If the Avalanche can solve Darcy Kuemper, the Yotes are going to have a tough time.

Something interesting of note is the bottom five teams on our rankings. The Lightning, Capitals, Bruins, Stars, and Blues all held down a playoff position heading into the bubble and were simply playing for seeding. How much should these game be looked into? Hard to say. Teams like the Flyers, Golden Knights, and Avalanche used this time to flex their muscles, while others seemed to be plotting more of a strategy. Some of these teams did not have their full rosters due to injury or other reasons, but it will be interesting to see how they do being thrown into a playoff series. Based on the performance and stats comparatively, the bottom five teams simply did not perform as well as others, hence their low ranking to start the playoffs. If they play to their potential, these teams should shoot up the rankings in no time.


Check back next week to see who the Biggest Gainer and Biggest Losers are next week!


What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.


All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

5 thoughts on “TWC Playoff Power Rankings: Week 1

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