With the completion of the 2024 NHL draft lottery, the Calgary Flames are now locked into the ninth overall pick in the draft. Barring a trade, the Flames will be making their highest selection in the first round since they picked sixth overall in 2016. It will also be just the tenth time the team has selected in the top 10 since moving to Calgary in 1980.
The Flames have selected ninth overall twice in franchise history, most recently in 2003 when they selected Dion Phaneuf as well as in 2000 when they picked Brett Krahn. The Phaneuf pick was pretty successful all things considered, but Krahn played just one single game in the NHL. Here’s hoping the Flames find their next Phaneuf this year and not the next Krahn.
The last ten ninth overall picks
2023 – Nate Danielson – Detroit Red Wings
The most recent ninth overall pick, Nate Danielson was considered a bit of a reach at the time he was picked. His D+1 season hasn’t helped to dispel the notion either. The 19-year-old posted 67 points in 54 WHL games which wasn’t a huge improvement over his D+0 totals. With that said he is currently leading his team in scoring in the playoffs with 21 points in 14 games as his Winterhawks are set to play in the WHL Final. It’s still far too early to judge this pick but for now, this one looks like a potential miss at ninth overall
2022 – Matthew Savoie – Buffalo Sabres
It’s still early but Matthew Savoie looks like a potential steal at ninth overall. Since being drafted in 2022, Savoie has absolutely dominated the WHL. During his D+1 year in the WHL, he posted 95 points in 62 games alongside 29 points in 19 playoff games. This year his numbers took another jump, putting up 71 points in just 34 games to lead the entire WHL in points per game. He’s also added 20 points in 14 playoff games.
Savoie also skated in six AHL games this season at the age of 20, and put up five points in those games. The Athletic ranked Savoie as the 20th best-drafted prospect in the league. So far this pick looks like incredible value for the Sabres at ninth overall.
2021 – Dylan Guenther – Arizona Coyotes
The first name on this list to be a full-time NHL player, Dylan Guenther has been superb since being picked ninth in 2021. After being drafted Guenther dominated the WHL in his D+1 season with 91 points and then made the jump to the NHL in 2022 just a year after being drafted. That same season he also led his team to the Memorial Cup final with 28 points in 19 WHL playoff games and scored the overtime game-winning goal at the 2023 World Juniors to help Canada claim gold.
This most recent season, Guenther made the full-time jump to the NHL and didn’t look back. He finished the 2023–24 campaign with 35 points in 45 games, finishing second on the Coyotes in points per game. If you want to find a perfect example of nailing a ninth-overall pick, look no further than Guenther.
2020 – Marco Rossi – Minnesota Wild
Sooner after being picked Marco Rossi was forced to sit out his entire D+1 year due to lingering effects of COVID-19 which delayed his development. With that said, this past season proved Rossi still has a great shot of becoming a top-six forward in the NHL. After returning to hockey for the 2021–22 season, Rossi posted an impressive 53 points in 63 AHL games as a rookie. He then followed that up with 51 points in 53 AHL games in 2022–23.
This recent season Rossi finally made the full-time jump to the NHL with 21 goals and 40 points in 82 games. It may have taken longer than anticipated for Rossi to make an NHL roster, but he’s still on his way to becoming great value at ninth overall.
2019 – Trevor Zegras – Anaheim Ducks
Trevor Zegras is a divisive player, but this looks like another strong return at ninth overall. Despite his struggles this past season, there’s no denying that Zegras has already proven to be a worthwhile pick at ninth overall. He may never be a true superstar player, but back-to-back 60-point seasons already in his young career are great value for his draft spot.
Whether or not he can take the next step is still unclear, but for a ninth-overall pick, you can do much worse than Zegras. The hope now is he can get back to his 60-point form and potentially go even higher as the Ducks improve their roster around him. At just 23 years old there’s plenty of room left for improvement.
2018 – Vitali Kravtsov – New York Rangers
You’d have to go back six years to find the last true bust at ninth overall as the Rangers completely whiffed on Vitali Kravtsov. Kravtsov failed to live up to his draft spot and within five years of being picked he was already out of the NHL entirely.
After a couple of decent seasons in the KHL after being drafted, Kravtsov came over to North America in 2020 but failed to make much of an impact. In 2023 he was dealt to the Vancouver Canucks before leaving for Russia following the 2022–23 season. All said, he finished his NHL career with just 12 points in 64 games.
2017 – Michael Rasmussen – Detroit Red Wings
Michael Rasmussen certainly isn’t a complete bust, but he’s definitely far from the type of NHL player you’d hope to get at ninth overall. Rasmussen has developed into a decent bottom-six forward in Detroit after being drafted ninth in 2017 but hasn’t shown much more so far in his career. This recent season he posted a career-high 33 points in 75 games and signed a four-year extension in February. Getting a useful NHL player at ninth isn’t a disaster, but it’s far from ideal.
2016 – Mikhail Sergachev – Montreal Canadiens
This is a homerun selection at ninth overall. Mikhail Sergachev was of course dealt soon after being drafted, but since then he’s developed into a legitimate top-four defenceman and impact NHL player. Sergachev became a full-time NHLer in 2017 just a year after being drafted and has since played in 475 games and totaled 257 points, as well as adding on 34 points in 100 playoffs.
He was also a key contributor to back-to-back Stanley Cup champion teams in Tampa Bay just a few years after being drafted and currently leads his entire draft class in playoff games. Sergachev has achieved a ridiculous amount in his career already and is still just 25 years old. Ninth-overall picks don’t get much better than this.
2015 – Timo Meier – San Jose Sharks
Yet another slam dunk pick at ninth overall. Selected in 2015, Timo Meier is a legitimate top-of-the-lineup, all-star player. Meier would make his full-time NHL debut in December of 2016, just one and a half years after being drafted. It wouldn’t take long for him to make an impact either as he’d post 66 points during the 2018–19 season, just his third in the NHL.
Meier has since developed into a bonafide star player, posting at least 30 goals on three separate occasions including a career-best 40 goals in 2022–23. After being shipped to New Jersey in a blockbuster trade last year, Meier signed a giant eight-year, $70 million contract. Getting a forward like Meier at ninth overall would be a perfect scenario for Calgary.
2014 – Nikolaj Ehlers – Winnipeg Jets
Coming off a 100-point season in the QMJHL, the Winnipeg Jets selected Nikolaj Ehlers ninth overall in 2014. He’s since turned into a high-end top-six forward for the Jets. Ehlers made the jump to the NHL in 2015 just a year after being drafted and never looked back. He’s since played in 605 NHL games and put up 457 points, including a career-high 0.98 points per game during the shortened 2020–21 season.
Like Meier, you really can’t hope for much better than a player like Ehlers at ninth overall. He’s had some injury issues, but when he’s healthy he’s a consistent 60+ point, top-six forward.
How often do ninth-overall picks make the NHL?
For a deeper overall look at how often ninth-overall draft picks become NHL players, let’s look at how many of these picks since the turn of the century have played NHL games, played in at least 200 NHL games, and have registered at least 200 points in the NHL.
I’ll exclude the last three drafts as it’s too early to include those picks. Overall that leaves us with 21 total ninth-overall picks between the 2000 and 2020 drafts.
| Metric | 9th overall picks (between – 2020) |
|---|---|
| Played NHL Games | 21 of 21 |
| >200 NHL GP | 17 of 21 |
| >200 NHL Points | 13 of 20* |
All said, it’s quite difficult to not pick at minimum an NHL player with the ninth overall selection. All 21 players selected ninth overall between 2000 and 2020 have played in the NHL at least once, and 17 of the 21 have played at least 200 NHL games. The only four who haven’t reached that mark are Rossi who was selected in 2020, Kravtsov in 2018, Petr Taticek from the 2002 draft, and Brent Krahn who was taken in 2000. Rossi is currently sitting at 103 games and is a lock to hit 200 games within the next couple years which would raise the number to 18 of 21.
If we look at NHL production the numbers are still impressive, as 13 of 20 skaters selected ninth overall since 2000 have hit at least 200 points in the NHL. Rossi and Rasmussen will almost certainly both hit the mark in the next couple years too, leaving the number at 15 of 20.
Most notable ninth-overall picks in NHL history
Throughout the history of the NHL draft, here are the most notable players selected ninth overall. I’ll consider players who have gone on to have All-Star-level careers in the NHL.
| Year | Player |
|---|---|
| 2016 | Mikhail Sergachev* |
| 2015 | Timo Meier* |
| 2014 | Nikolaj Ehlers* |
| 2013 | Bo Horvat* |
| 2012 | Jacob Trouba* |
| 2011 | Dougie Hamilton* |
| 2007 | Logan Couture* |
| 2003 | Dion Phaneuf |
| 1988 | Rod Brind’Amour |
| 1986 | Brian Leetch |
| 1983 | Cam Neely |
It’s fair to say the ninth overall pick was a goldmine for NHL all-stars in the 2010s. Between 2011 and 2016, you could argue all six players taken ninth during that span went on to become and remain all-star, high-impact players in the NHL. It’s quite the run that you don’t see too often with draft picks outside the top five of the draft.
Past that group, the hit rate for all-stars at ninth gets a little more spread out. The next best names would be Logan Couture from the 2007 draft and Phaneuf who the Flames selected in 2003. There was quite the dry spell before Phaneuf, as you’d have to go back 15 years to 1988 when Rod Brind’Amour was selected to find the next homerun at ninth overall. Before him, you’ve got a pair of Hall of Famers in Brian Leetch in 1986 and Cam Neely in 1983.
Overall, I’d say this is a pretty optimistic outlook for the Flames. Over the last decade any team selecting at ninth overall is more often than not getting a future NHL all-star and top of the lineup player.
The odds are in the Flames’ favour
For the first time in eight years, the Flames will be selecting in the top 10 of the draft and it couldn’t come at a better time as the organization is desperate for star talent. If history is any indication, the ninth overall pick has great odds of producing a future NHL all-star. Now it’s up to the Flames scouting staff to make the right call.
