As the Calgary Flames disappointing season comes to a close, their position in the standings is becoming clearer, which means their draft position is, too. Unless they pull off a miracle in the lottery, they’ll be somewhere in the 5–10 range, getting the opportunity to draft a (hopefully) high end player.
Knowing around where they’ll draft means we can look at the recent history of picks in that range to see what the Flames can expect from their new prospect. We’ll skip the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, none of the players taken between 5 and 10 have played yet. But we’ll look at the 10 drafts preceding 2023.
Some quick numbers and disclaimers before we start, though:
Of the 60 players, 40 are forwards and 20 are defenceman. No goalies were taken in the 5–10 range from 2013–2022.
The forwards average career points per game sits at 0.5. The D-men average 0.39.
Two players, Tyler Boucher and Cutter Gauthier, haven’t played an NHL game yet. Boucher was drafted in 2021 and Gauthier in 2022.
The 2020 draft is entirely guys still developing, with Cole Perfetti being the standout. So for 2020, 2021, and 2022, the numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. The guys are still really young.
I think that’s it, so without further ado, let’s jump in
You probably won’t draft a star, but there’s a chance
Of the 60 players, only two, Mikko Rantanen and Elias Pettersson, have averaged over a point per game so far in their careers. That being said, Quinn Hughes is at 0.9 as a defenseman, and Matthew Tkachuk and William Nylander will probably both finish their careers over a point a game.
Interestingly, they were taken at 10, 5, 7, 6, and 8 in their drafts.
This group, along with probably Evan Bouchard, who was had a fantastic year, are the top of the top. That’s just six of 60 players.
The next tier of guys would be Clayton Keller, Nikolaj Ehlers, Bo Horvat, Moritz Seider, and Noah Hanifin.
While these guys aren’t what I’d call stars, they are great NHL players who have had or will have long, productive careers. There seems to be about a 10% chance of getting a guy who could compete for an All-Star appearance at some point in their career.
The good news is it doesn’t really seem to matter where you make your pick between 5 and 10 to get a star. The bad news is you probably won’t get one anyways.
The busts
Luckily, the chances of drafting a complete bust are low, too. Not as low, but low.
Like I said, only two guys haven’t played, and they were taken in 2021 and 2022. Tyler Boucher looks like he’s on the path of becoming a bust, but we can’t count him yet.
Olli Juolevi is easily the worst pick of the entire group, as he was taken 5th overall by the Vancouver Canucks in 2016. He played 41 games, put up three points, and hasn’t played an NHL game since 2021–22.
Another Canuck, Vasili Podkolzin, is on the trajectory of a bust. He played 79 games as a rookie after being drafted 10th in 2019, and scored 26 points. But he’s bounced between the AHL and NHL for three years and has eight points in 51 games since his rookie year.
Vancouver also took Jake Virtanen sixth, who’s close to a bust. But they also took Bo Horvat, Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson in the 5–10 range. Whew.
Vitali Kravtsov has played 64 games since being drafted in 2018 with 12 points. Lias Andersson was taken seventh in 2017, and has 17 career points. Both were taken by the New York Rangers.
The other New York squad took Michael Dal Colle fifth in 2014 and he never played a full NHL season, finishing his career with 21 points.
Other than those guys, everyone on the list has at least played a game in the NHL this year. Nick Ritchie is the only exception, but he was decent for a while, he’s not a bust in my opinion.
Haydn Fleury and Filip Zadina are the next closest in line, along with Philip Broberg if his career doesn’t get going soon. Is Alexander Nylander a bust? I would’ve said yes about a month ago, now I’m not so sure.
So that’s five definite busts, three maybes, and two on the trajectory. Out of 60 guys, that’s semi-encouraging, especially if you aren’t a fan of the Vancouver Canucks or the New York Rangers.
Does it matter what pick between 5 and 10 you get?
The funny part about this area of the draft is I actually don’t think it matters too much where you end up.
The fifth picks are great examples why.
Elias Pettersson, Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin were all taken fifth. That’s three great NHLers. But guess who else were taken fifth? Alex Turcotte (injuries might turn him into a bust), Michael Dal Colle (bust), and Olli Juolevi (biggest bust).
And you might hear that and say, well there’s a better chance of getting a star at five, right? I’m not so sure. Mikko Rantanen and Evan Bouchard were taken 10th, and William Nylander was taken eighth.
If we look at the career points per game by draft position, this is what we get:
| Draft Position | Career Points Per Game |
|---|---|
| 5th | 0.42 |
| 6th | 0.46 |
| 7th | 0.44 |
| 8th | 0.42 |
| 9th | 0.49 |
| 10th | 0.53 |
Not much insight into where you want to be picking.
A group of solid NHLers
If we take out the stars, and take out the busts, we’re left with a group of useful, worthy NHLers who average about 0.45 points a game and have nice long careers.
Odds are, that’s what the Flames (and any other team in this range) will end up with.
But that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t aim higher. Calgary shows up twice on this list, having the sixth pick in 2013 and 2016. With those picks, they got Sean Monahan and Matthew Tkachuk.
Monahan isn’t a star, but he is definitely in the upper tier of guys taken in the 5–10 range recently. And Tkachuk is absolutely a star, maybe the best player on the whole list.
Getting as high as you can in the order is obviously still important. As a front office, you want the best opportunity to get the guy you want, you don’t want to have to wait to see if he gets snatched ahead of you. But based on the list, getting 10th instead of fifth isn’t the end of the world.
Hopefully the Flames continue their good drafting in the 5–10 range and end up with the next Mikko Rantanen or Elias Pettersson.
