The Calgary Flames’ third quarter of the 2023–24 season continued this season’s trend of alternating winning streaks and losing streaks. They failed to gain much ground in the playoff race and remain firmly in the middle of the NHL standings.
After each quarter mark of the season, we will assign a letter grade from A+ to F to each Flames player who logged over 100 minutes TOI in the quarter. These grades will take into consideration the 21 games between January 10 and March 4. The Flames recorded a 12–8–0 record in the third quarter, gaining 24 of a possible 40 points. Entering the final quarter of the season, they rank 21st in the NHL, sixth in the Pacific Division, and eight points out of a wild card spot with two games in hand. If the Flames make the playoffs is undetermined at this point, the odds of which you can find at papyal casinos Canada.
As a team, the Flames finished the quarter 15th in CF%, 22nd in xGF%, and 26th in HDCF%.
How do TWC’s POET rankings work?
A reminder that these rankings are based on a model that evaluates 5v5 play. In order to grade players, we will be using the TWC Player Offensive Evaluation Tool (POET).
The model operates similarly to the power rankings model we update on a weekly basis. The player model takes specific on-ice statistics including CF% at various danger levels, xGF%; individual statistics including goals, assists, offensive contributions, and penalty differentials; and includes an adjustment for time on ice, PDO, and offensive zone starts.
Each player’s statistics are put through the model and combined to produce an overall TWC Score. These scores are then compared to the rest of the league to determine what letter grade they fall into. If their TWC Score is above zero on their player cards, then they are above average compared to all other players of the same position (forwards or defencemen).
It is important to note that the model is based on player performance at 5v5. This is not meant to diminish the efforts of the Flames’ work on special teams but to be more representative of a player’s form against equal opposition. Only players with over 100 minutes at 5v5 were given grades. Let’s see who ranks where on the Flames squad.
All numbers are 5v5 score- and venue-adjusted (SVA) courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.com.
Forwards
A
Andrew Mangiapane
It’s certainly surprising to see Andrew Mangiapane grade out so well, considering the mood around him this season, but he put up some real solid underlying numbers in the third quarter. He led all Flames forwards in CF% and xGF% and was second in HDCF%.
Offensively, he chipped in three goals and eight points at 5v5, tied for the third most among Flames forwards. He also contributed a team-leading five primary assists at 5v5. Mangiapane may not be producing points at an overly high rate, but he was an incredibly strong possession player this quarter.
Andrei Kuzmenko
Included as a cap dump in the Elias Lindholm return, Andrei Kuzmenko has made an immediate impact with the Flames. He finished the quarter fourth among Flames forwards in CF% and xGF% as well as first in HDCF%.
His goal production has been equally impressive, as he added three goals at 5v5 in just 10 games in the quarter. For context, Elias Lindholm had no 5v5 goals in eight games for the Flames this quarter before being traded.
A-
Mikael Backlund
Mikael Backlund truly is an ageless wonder. A week away from turning 35 years old, he continues to be one of the Flames’ most important forwards. He finishes the quarter second in CF%, third in xGF%, and fourth in HDCF%, all while playing difficult minutes.
On top of that, he also produced nine points at 5v5, which was third most on the team among forwards. With Elias Lindholm out the door, Backlund has seen his role increase, and he hasn’t missed a beat.
Blake Coleman
Blake Coleman continued to rack up 5v5 points in the third quarter, pacing the Flames with 11 across the team’s 20 games. His five goals ranked second among forwards, as did his six assists. He’s truly done it all for the Flames this year.
He also finished third in CF% and HDCF% and second in xGF%. Like his linemates—Backlund and Mangiapane—Coleman was a key possession driver for the Flames this quarter.
B+
Nazem Kadri
It was a tale of two stories for Nazem Kadri in the third quarter. He continued to rack up points at an impressive rate, but his underlying numbers took quite a dip. He finished last among Flames forwards in CF% and second last in xGF% and HDCF%, which hurt his overall grade a bit.
The good news is he was tied with Coleman for the team lead in 5v5 points with 11 and was tied for the team lead in 5v5 assists with seven. He also tied for the most 5v5 shots with 44. Kadri continues to pace the Flames offence as its most important piece.
B-
Yegor Sharangovich
Yegor Sharangovich produced goals at a high clip in the third quarter, but the move to centre after the Lindholm trade really impacted his underlying numbers and shot generation. He led all Flames with six goals at 5v5 but produced just 20 shots at 5v5, which was tied for worst among regular Flames forwards.
He also ranked eighth in CF% and fifth in both xGF% and HDCF%. Considering the circumstances and his switch to the middle of the ice, this was a solid quarter for Sharangovich, who is much more suited as a winger.
C+
Connor Zary
Connor Zary slowed down a bit in the third quarter, which is reflected in his grade here. Among Flames forwards, he finished fifth in CF% and seventh in both xGF% and HDCF%. In terms of production, he finished the quarter with three goals and seven points at 5v5, good for the seventh-highest total on the team among forwards. He also generated just 20 shots at 5v5 which was tied for worst among regular forwards.
Considering Zary is still just 22 years old and in his first NHL season, growing pains were expected, and we saw a bit of that this past quarter.
C
Jonathan Huberdeau
Overall, Jonathan Huberdeau’s third quarter was arguably his best as a Flame since coming over from the Florida Panthers in 2022. Unfortunately, there’s still plenty of room for improvement. His underlying numbers were just okay, finishing seventh in CF% and sixth in xGF% and HDCF%.
At 5v5, he produced eight points, tied for the fifth-highest total among Flames forwards. His seven 5v5 assists, however, were tied with Kadri for the most on the team. Overall, this was a step in the right direction for Huberdeau, but much more is still needed to live up to his contract.
C-
Martin Pospisil
Perhaps this grade is a tad harsh, but Martin Pospisil didn’t exactly blow the doors off in the third quarter of the season. His possession numbers weren’t great, and he didn’t contribute a tonne offensively. He finished eighth in CF%, 10th in xGF%, and dead last in HDCF%.
In terms of offence, Pospisil only had five points at 5v5, which ranked as the lowest total among Flames forwards other than Kuzmenko, who only played 10 games. If this were solely a rating of how much of a pest you are, Pospisil would earn an A+.
Defencemen
A
Noah Hanifin
Noah Hanifin‘s final quarter as a Calgary Flame was a strong one, as he graded out as the team’s top defenceman. He finished third among Flames blueliners in CF%, xGF%, and HDCF%. He also led all Flames defencemen with nine points at 5v5. His seven 5v5 assists also led the Flames.
He earns an F for helping his general manager facilitate a trade that benefits both sides, but his play on the ice was very strong as he heads off to Vegas, and we wish him the best.
B+
Rasmus Andersson
Rasmus Andersson continued his good-not-great season in the third quarter. He finished second behind MacKenzie Weegar in CF% but ranked fifth in xGF% and HDCF%. He was strong offensively, producing seven points at 5v5, ranking second behind only Hanifin. His six 5v5 assists were also second behind Hanifin.
Andersson also finished third on the blueline behind Weegar and Hanifin in both 5v5 shots and iCF. With both Tanev and Hanifin now gone, Andersson will be heavily relied on in the fourth quarter.
B+
MacKenzie Weegar
MacKenzie Weegar‘s play slipped a bit this quarter, but he continued to rack up goals at an impressive rate. His underlying numbers were all over the place, as he finished the quarter first in CF%, last in xGF%, and fourth in HDCF%.
Where he earns a huge boost is his goal production. Weegar scored five goals at 5v5 in the quarter, three more than any other Flames blueliner. He was also tied for first among defencemen across the entire NHL in the same time span. On top of that, he posted 40 5v5 shots and 102 iCF, both tops among Flames defencemen. The vibes were immaculate this quarter.
B
Oliver Kylington
It feels so good to see Oliver Kylington in these report cards again. After nearly two years away from hockey, Kylington jumped back into the lineup and looked great, considering how long he’s been off. He finished the quarter last in CF% and HDCF% but fourth in xGF%.
He also added two goals and three points at 5v5. His most impressive feat was putting 20 shots on net at 5v5 as well as 40 iCF, despite only playing in 14 of 20 games in the quarter. With the Flames losing two top-four defencemen, Kylington has a great opportunity to earn a larger role to close out the season.
Chris Tanev
Chris Tanev did Chris Tanev things in his final quarter in Calgary, even chipping in offensively at times. He finished his last quarter in Calgary with six points at 5v5, all assists. The total was tied for third among Flames blueliners, much higher than he usually ranks in that category.
He also ranked fourth in CF% and second in both xGF% and HDCF%. Tanev will be missed in Calgary, and we wish him the best in Dallas.
D
Brayden Pachal
Picked up as a waiver claim, Brayden Pachal did about as well as you’d hope for from a player who was picked up for free. He finished the quarter with 12 games played, ranking fifth in CF% but first in both xGF% and HDCF%.
His offence isn’t exactly his specialty, as he registered just one point—a secondary assist—at 5v5, which ranked last on the Flames blueline. Pachal was a solid zero-cost addition to the Flames bottom pairing this quarter.
Entering the stretch drive
This Flames team truly is something special. After their best quarter of the season so far, we still don’t know if they’ll finish in a playoff spot or with a top-10 draft pick. With multiple major names moving on this quarter, the fourth quarter is sure to be an interesting one as the roster adapts to some major holes in the lineup.
Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire
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