The Calgary Flames’ disappointing 2023–24 season continues. Their 5–2 loss to the Minnesota Wild has given them a 10–12–3 record and places them 23rd in the league, or 25th if you go off points percentage. A few storylines have followed the Flames this season, some of the major ones include the gift of youth and the large amount of pending free agents. One ties into another, younger players arriving and performing great gives more reason to sell off UFAs.
The Flames seemed to be destined to place where they always place: in mediocrity. The team wants to win, which makes sense as no team wants to lose unless they’re tanking, which the Flames aren’t. They don’t appear bad enough to fully bottom out, but also not good enough to make the playoffs or do damage. This year’s Flames could be like the 2014–15 Flames. Sell off some players and have the injection of youth carry into the playoffs potentially.
With Nikita Zadorov being shipped to Vancouver, this leaves three major pending UFA names: Elias Lindholm, Chris Tanev, and Noah Hanifin. Defenceman seem to be the rage right now as Tanev and Hanifin have both been linked to teams, but for now, let’s focus on Hanifin.
Near the start of the year, the Flames and Hanifin were supposedly close on an extension. The reported deal was an eight-year contract worth $7.5M or more yearly. Due to the rough start for the Flames, both Hanifin and the Flames paused contract talks to see the direction the team was headed. As of today, it seems way more likely Hanifin is on his way out of Calgary via trade rather than staying for another eight years.
Many teams have been speculated to be interested in Hanifin, including the Toronto Maple Leafs, New York Islanders, Arizona Coyotes, and even the San Jose Sharks. One of these teams has stuck out in the past week or so, and that team is the Arizona Coyotes. Elliotte Friedman reported that the Coyotes have been pushing hard around the Hanifin trade front and are likely the team most interested. There’s no deal imminent, but it’s not nothing either.
Why would the Coyotes want to trade for Hanifin
The Coyotes currently sit in the first West wild card and fourth in the Central Division, only two points back of the Winnipeg Jets for third. Based on expectations, the Coyotes have had a really good start to the season, which has been added onto with a five-game winning streak. Their offence is led by Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, and Matias Maccelli with help from the likes of Logan Cooley, Michael Carcone, and others.
While their offence is an underrated part of their team, the defence is not as strong. Janis Moser and Sean Durzi have put up some very good results as a top pairing, Juuso Valimaki and Michael Kesselring have been solid in more limited roles, but despite that their defence doesn’t look too good. Right-hands are playing left-side to make up for the lack of left-side defencemen as Travis Dermott is out with injury and Valimaki was as well. To make matters worse for them, Durzi looks to be out with a major injury too.
A defence corps of Moser, Dumba, Valimaki, and Stecher isn’t the most attractive thing in the world, and even when you add a healthy Durzi, it still feels bare. This is where Hanifin could come in. While Durzi’s out, he could likely slot as their top defenceman, filling in for a potential top pair role, being on the top special units, and playing the most minutes. When Durzi’s healthy, Hanifin would probably find himself on the second pairing, just due to the chemistry Durzi and Moser seem to have. The Coyotes could go the long-term or rental route, neither would really surprise me. A long-term route would seem more likely, but the Coyotes do have Dmitri Simashev in the pool and it’s extremely possible he’ll fill a top-four role one day.
What a potential trade might look like
A 26-year-old top pairing defenceman, 2015 5th overall pick, having already played over 600 games, entering the prime of his career… this list has all the makings for Noah Hanifin to fetch a very solid for the Flames. There are a couple of trades that have gone down in the past few years that could be comparable to a potential Hanifin return.
Boston Trades
First, the Dmitry Orlov and Hampus Lindholm trades to Boston. Orlov (50% retained by Washington + 25% retained by Minnesota for a 5th) with Garnet Hathaway went to the Bruins at the trade deadline last year. In return, the Capitals received a package of a first-round pick in 2023, a second in 2025, a third in 2024, and Craig Smith. Smith was on an expiring deal and added to make cap work and let’s say the third was for Hathaway. That still leaves a first- and a second-round pick going to Washington for Orlov.
Lindholm went to Boston a year prior also at the deadline. What Anaheim got in return included a 2022 first-round pick, 2023 second, 2024 second, John Moore, and Urho Vaakanainen. Considering Moore had multiple years left on his contract, he was more a cap dump than Smith, so likely one of the second-rounders or Vaakanainen was added to take on his deal. That still left the Ducks with a package of a first- and two second-rounders, or a first- and second-round pick, and struggling young player for Lindholm
Trades with term
Two other trades that could be viewed as comparables are the trades that sent Jakob Chychrun and Filip Hronek to their respective teams. I would only look at these as comparables if the Flames are willing to trade Hanifin with an extension in place as both had more than one year left on their contract. Chychrun was shipped to Ottawa and in exchange, the Coyotes got a top five protected 2023 first-round pick, a conditional 2024 second, and a 2026 second. Now there were conditions on the 2024 second that would make it a first-round pick, but they were pretty farfetched nonetheless. Hronek went to Vancouver from Detroit for a 2023 first- and second-round pick.
What made these first-round picks different from those featured in the Boston trades is that they ended up being higher picks, Ottawa’s first-round pick was 12th overall, and Vancouver’s was 17th. Boston traded away picks 22nd and 28th—pretty big difference.
With all of this considered, it seems that the Flames should be able to get some sort of package including a first, second(s), and/or a struggling, young player or prospect.
Mock trade with Coyotes
| Flames Receive | Coyotes Receive |
|---|---|
| 2024 1st Round Pick (Top 10 Protected, becomes 2025 1st) | Noah Hanifin (50% retained) |
| 2026 2nd Round Pick | |
| Jan Jenik/Victor Soderstrom | |
| 2025 5th Round Pick |
I feel that this trade is fair value for both the Flames and Coyotes. It mainly follows the outline return that the Flames should expect for Hanifin—keyword: should—a first, a second, and a younger player. Coyotes add protection on the first just to ensure that they’re legit and are not having a hot start.
There’s two possible players that cross the box of a struggling, young player. First is centre Jan Jenik, drafted in the third round in 2018. Jenik hasn’t found his footing in Arizona, mainly playing in the AHL. Another player the Flames could target is defenceman Victor Soderstrom. He was the 11th overall pick in 2019 and he has struggled to make the jump to the NHL and a change of scenery seems likely. I sense that Jenik would be the most probable to be moved due to the fact Soderstrom was a top 12 pick whereas Jenik was a third-round selection.
