The first of four major unrestricted free agent dominoes fell on Thursday when the Flames dealt Nikita Zadorov to the Vancouver Canucks for two draft picks. Zadorov was the domino likely to fall first, due to his very public trade request earlier in November. The Zadorov trade return garnered an interesting reaction on social media, due to fan perception on the return expected for Zadorov. I can include myself in that category because I expected a higher return. That was due to looking at the Ben Chiarot return as what the Flames should be looking for. Admittedly, that was a reach on my end.
Looking at other trades for bottom-pairing defencemen—like Luke Schenn at last year’s deadline going for a third-rounder—means the Flames probably got closer to Zadorov’s value than what I and others had anticipated. It still wasn’t a slam dunk by any means, but it also isn’t as bad of a deal as people originally thought. With that said, I wanted to take a look at other comparable trades for their other three big UFAs: Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin, and Chris Tanev. This will hopefully provide us with a roadmap of what to expect if or when the Flames move these players.
Important note: No one knows exactly what the Flames target in terms of picks, young players, or prospects. A first could mean the pick, or it could mean its equivalent value if the Flames choose the young player or prospect route.
The possible return for Elias Lindholm
After rejecting a large offer from the Flames this offseason, it seems like Lindholm is on the way out. He also hasn’t helped himself with his play so far this season. After convincing most of the world he was that ideal first line centre a few years ago, Lindholm has trended closer to being an ideal second line centre on a contender.
There are two recent examples of this type of centre being moved in recent years in Bo Horvat and Claude Giroux. Those two deals are as follows.
Canucks trade Horvat
Vancouver Canucks trade Bo Horvat @ 25% retained to the New York Islanders in exchange for Anthony Beauvillier, 1st, and Aatu Raty.
I think the Horvat deal is almost as clean of a comparable as you can get. Both are around similar ages and points per game. Horvat’s $8.5×8 deal has also been used as a comparable for Lindholm’s next contract. It’s important to note that the Islanders weren’t in a playoff spot when they made this deal, so the first-round pick value was higher than compared to that of a contender at the deadline.
The Islanders did make the playoffs but lost in the first round, meaning the pick ended up being 17th overall. So, I would expect a Lindholm deal to garner a prospect with a bit higher potential than Raty, assuming Lindholm is dealt to one of the top teams.
Flyers trade Giroux
Philadelphia Flyers trade Claude Giroux @ 50% retained, along with minor pieces, to the Florida Panthers in exchange for Owen Tippett, 1st, 3rd.
This is another comparable, although Giroux was older when his contract expired and therefore doesn’t fit quite as well as the Horvat trade.
Lindholm’s perceived value (@ 50% retention): First-round pick, A-level prospect, cap dump/someone in need of a change of scenery
What Noah Hanifin could net
After being close to a rumoured eight-year, 7.5M AAV extension earlier in the year, both parties halted contract talks after the Flames’ rough start. With over 600 games under his belt at 26 years old, Hanifin should command a high return. He’s still in a good age range where a team can extend him long-term and not worry about a complete fall-off.
I am glad Calgary didn’t give him that rumoured extension, however. There are a few recent examples of defenceman of Hanifin’s calibre being dealt in Hampus Lindholm and Dmitry Orlov.
Ducks trade Lindholm
Anaheim Ducks trade Hampus Lindholm 50% retained to the Boston Bruins in exchange for a 1st, 2nd, 2nd, Urho Vaakanainen, John Moore)
I think Hampus Lindholm is the closest comparable to Hanifin. Both guys might not be the flashiest guys, but they can be a strong 2/3D on a good team and pitch in 40 points a year. Assuming one of the seconds was included to take on John Moore’s contract, that means Lindholm’s value is a first-, second-rounder, and a young defenceman.
Vaakanainen was a first-round pick that hadn’t panned out in Boston. Someone like that included in the Hanifin deal makes a lot of sense. Calgary will give them playing time and see what they have.
Capitals trade Orlov
Washington trades Dmitry Orlov @ 50% retained (along with Garnet Hathway) for a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, and cap dump). Orlov also had 25% of his contract further retained through Minnesota, for a 5th round pick.
Hanifin’s perceived value (@ 50% retention): First- and second-rounders, and a young defenceman
Chris Tanev’s value on the market
Tanev is such an awesome player. If the Flames decide to move him, there will no doubt be a massive bidding war. There are quite a few instances of defencemen of similar playing time and style being dealt.
Blue Jackets trade Savard
Columbus Blue Jackets trade David Savard 50% retained to the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for a first- and third-round pick. Savard was also dealt through Detroit who retained another 25% on Savard’s deal, in exchange for a fourth-round pick.
Tanev is older than Savard was when he was dealt, but they are similar-style players so that return is worth noting. Honestly, it’s tough to gauge Tanev’s exact value. He is so highly regarded, but he’s on the older side and has an injury history. I don’t think the return gets as high as Savard, but you never know.
Ducks trade Manson
Anaheim Ducks trade Josh Manson 50% retained to the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for a 2nd and prospect Drew Helleson)
Canadiens trade Kulak
Montreal Canadiens trade Brett Kulak @ 50% retained to the Edmonton Oilers in exchange for a 2nd, 7th, and roster player.
To me, I think a Tanev deal could net a conditional second-rounder that turns into a first if the acquiring team makes the conference finals and Tanev plays a certain percentage of games. That is similar to what the Flames did with Kris Russell when they dealt him to the Stars in 2016.
Tanev’s perceived value (@ 50% retention): Conditional second-round pick (turns into a first-round pick depending on conditions met) + mid-round pick or prospect
It’s on Calgary to get the best return
A major noticeable thing in all of these deals is the retention. In every deal, the traded player was retained 50% (with the exception of the Horvat deal which was 25% retention to meet Beauvillier’s salary). Calgary not using a retention slot on Zadorov is a real positive if the team decides to use all three slots on Lindholm, Hanifin, and Tanev.
Ultimately, Calgary is hopefully walking out of the March 8 deadline with two extra firsts, two extra seconds, a prospect or two, a young defenceman, and a few cap dumps. That would definitely set the franchise in the right direction going forward. If the Flames decide to make the smart decision and move these guys, the returns should be quite solid, given recent comparables.
