Tank watch has been on for a while now for the Calgary Flames, as they played themselves out of playoff contention and into the NHL draft lottery. With just five games left, their final spot in the standings becomes closer and closer to being locked in.
As a fan, it’s easy to cheer for losses. Of course, you want the best odds in the lottery for the future of the team. But players don’t think like that. Flames players will be trying to win the rest of the way, even if it means moving up.
Let’s take a look at what could happen, and what probably will happen.
The Flames standings range
There is still a wide range of possibilities even at this point in the season. Lots of teams are grouped up in the bottom third of the league, and with the most games left of any of them, the Flames control a lot. If they lose, they can move down a few spots. If they win, well, they can move up quite a bit.
How much Calgary can increase their lottery odds
Three teams below Calgary could pass them if the Flames don’t register another point. The Arizona Coyotes, Montreal Canadiens, and Ottawa Senators, who’ve all played 78 games, have 71, 72, and 72 points. Calgary has 75.
Calgary holds the tiebreaker against Ottawa and Montreal, so they’ll need to be behind them in the standings, not tied. Just two wins in their last four would give each of them 76 and put them ahead of the Flames if they go 0–5–0.
Arizona would need three wins in their last four to pass the Flames.
In a perfect tanking scenario, Calgary could drop all the way to 28th overall, giving them the fifth-best lottery odds. The Columbus Blue Jackets, Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks, and San Jose Sharks are all out of reach.
How much Calgary can climb the standings
If the Flames win out, they’ll finish the year with 85 points.
Right now, 85 points puts them tied with the Washington Capitals for 17th overall. But the top of that range play each other a lot to end the season, so it’s more complicated than that.
The teams the Flames can realistically pass are the Buffalo Sabres, New Jersey Devils, and Seattle Kraken, all with 79 points. None of them play each other, so they could all end with 79. Three regulation wins for the Flames would make Calgary pass all of them if they each go winless (which isn’t likely, but still).
After that, it gets tricky. The Philadelphia Flyers have 83 points, but they play the Devils and Capitals. The Penguins and Red Wings both have 84, but play each other, so only one can be caught.
Theoretically, they could move up to above 20th, but realistically, 22nd is probably the highest.
So 22nd to 28th is the “realistic” range for the Flames.
A look at the Flames remaining schedule
Unfortunately for those on Team Tank, the Flames play three teams below them in their five games left. They’ll need to play some bad hockey to move down in the standings.
The Los Angeles Kings are first up, trying to fight off the Vegas Golden Knights in the Pacific Division. After a cold stretch, they’ve played better recently, but the Flames beat them less than two weeks ago. The Kings will be the betting favourites for sure.
Then it’s the Ducks and Coyotes. Anaheim has been horrible all year but also beat Calgary on April 2.
If the Flames beat Arizona, they can’t fall below them in the standings. The Coyotes have been better than Calgary lately, but then again basically everyone has. The Flames have been tanking well.
Vancouver might be resting players by the time the squads face off on April 16, but the Canucks have been money all season. Unless they have their whole team in the press box, Vancouver should be favourites.
Then, in the final game of the year, the last-place Sharks come to town. One of the worst teams in recent memory, San Jose sits at 45 points in 78 games right now.
Realistically, the Flames should get two or three wins in their last five. The Coyotes game is a bit of a toss-up, but the other four are fairly predictable. This is hockey, though, so you never really know.
A look at the odds
Using Tankathon we can see how the final spots in the standings affect lottery odds.
Right now, the likeliest scenario is the Flames stand pat at the eighth-best odds. It’ll take a lot of losing, and a lot of luck, to move down. Even if they win three of their remaining five, they’ll probably only move up one or two spots.
The jump from ninth to 10th is one of the worst in the draft, going from a 10.4% chance of moving into the top three to a 7.3% chance. The Flames should try to stay in the bottom nine, at least.
If everything stays the same, the Flames would have a 12.4% chance of moving into the top three, which isn’t nothing. They’d also have just a 3.2% chance of drafting 10th.
Going 0–5–0, and getting jumped by Arizona, Montreal, and Ottawa, would give Calgary a 17.4% chance of getting a top-3 pick. The lowest pick they could get in that scenario would be seventh.
Like I said before, players never want to lose. But for the future of the franchise, continuing the horrid stretch of play they’ve been on would help the Flames a lot.
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