Rasmus Andersson has led the Calgary Flames in time on ice per game for the last three seasons—never dipping below 22 minutes a night. He’s seen the most power play time of the defence corps for four straight years and led the team in points by a defenceman for two years coming into this one.
But his play this year has been nothing short of a huge disappointment.
He’s been on the ice for more goals against than ever in his career at 5v5 according to Natural Stat Trick, his expected goals percentage at 5v5 is also the lowest of his career, and his defensive numbers have fallen off a cliff.
The worst part is Andersson’s dragging his teammates down with him. So what’s going on?
Andersson’s defence has been really, really bad
Andersson has never been the most defensively responsible player in the world, but this year he’s gone from middle of the pack to downright bad. Teams are having no issues getting to high-danger areas when he’s on the ice, and it’s translated to giving up more chances and goals than ever before.
The Flames have never given up more than 2.7 goals per 60 minutes at 5v5 with Andersson on the ice. This year, that number sits at 3.2.
This isn’t even close to good enough, obviously.
According to Natural Stat Trick, Andersson is 21st in the whole league in expected goals against so far this year, and where MacKenzie Weegar sits at 29th, at least he has contributed to more expected goals for than against. Andersson’s expected goal percentage is less than 47%.
A massive part of the reason Andersson’s defence has been so bad is the giveaways. In about 200 fewer minutes than he played last year and the year before, he’s already passed those seasons’ turnover numbers. He’s also doing it in the defensive zone more than ever, according to MoneyPuck.
Turnovers in the D-zone are the easiest way to give up grade-A scoring chances and odd-man opportunities. Andersson hasn’t been careful enough with the puck around the net, leading to him giving up the most high-danger chances in his career at 5v5 per Natural Stat Trick.
It’s very hard to win games when your quote-unquote number-one defenceman is giving up over 3.2 goals against per 60 minutes at 5v5. It’s also very hard when they make just about everyone they play with’s numbers drop off a cliff.
Not many Flames defenders are better with Andersson on the ice
For the vast majority of the year, Andersson and Weegar have played beside one another. They’ve been on the ice at 5v5 for over 740 minutes together, with Andersson’s next-highest defence partner being the now-traded Noah Hanifin at just 209 minutes.
At 5v5, the pair has been outscored 41–34, and have a 47% expected goal share according to Natural Stat Trick. They give up a ton of high-danger chances, even though they start in the offensive zone more than the defensive zone.
But the thing is, Weegar owns a 55% expected goal share when playing with anyone not named Rasmus Andersson. With any other partner, Weegar has been a top-level defenceman for the Flames.
Head coach Ryan Huska has put Andersson with Oliver Kylington a lot since the latter returned to play, but the pair have been outscored 9–5 at 5v5 in 139 minutes. They own a 45.7% expected goal share together, but again, Kylington plays to a 51% share with everyone else combined.
The only other defenceman Andersson has played over 15 minutes with who’s still on the team is Dennis Gilbert, and that pair hasn’t worked either.
Flames forwards also struggle with Andersson
It’s a similar story with the forwards, too.
Andersson has played over 300 minutes at 5v5 with Yegor Sharangovich, Andrew Mangiapane, Nazem Kadri, Blake Coleman, Mikael Backlund, and Jonathan Huberdeau. Only one of them—Mangiapane—has a higher expected goal rate with Andersson on the ice rather than off according to Natural Stat Trick.
Huberdeau jumps from 45 xGF% with Andersson at 5v5 to 55% without him. Backlund improves by 2%. Kadri jumps over 8.5%. Sharangovich jumps almost 10%.
These numbers are honestly crazy. At least Andersson’s leading the tank now.
Have the Flames found a new power play quarterback?
Like I mentioned earlier, Andersson has been the most consistent power play defenceman for the Flames for four years running. But as I examined recently, Calgary’s new acquisition Daniil Miromanov might be taking his job.
Since he was acquired, Miromanov has run the first power play unit quite a bit. If the trend continues, one of Andersson’s biggest assets might not be used any longer, hurting his worth to the team even more.
Now, Miromanov’s numbers in a very small sample of running the power play haven’t been great, so there’s still a chance they give the role back to Andersson. But Miromanov is a former forward with great offensive instincts, so the Flames will probably give him at least a few more reps over the rest of the season to test it out.
A lot of Andersson’s point production in the last two years has come on the man advantage. Without the points and with a declining defensive game, Andersson’s $4.5M AAV contract might not look like such a bargain anymore.
Let’s hope for a bounce back from Andersson
Andersson has been superb for an extended time spanning over several seasons. He’s super talented offensively and has been good enough defensively in the past to be a top-pair guy.
Just last year, he owned a 54% expected goal share at 5v5 and produced 21 power play points. He’s consistently helped create high-danger chances and goals for the Flames while leading the team in ice time.
Bad years happen, and this has definitely been one for Andersson. He’s been way too nonchalant in the defensive zone, and it’s cost Calgary a lot.
But if he comes into next season with an emphasis on D-zone play and gets back to the Rasmus Andersson of last year, he’ll be just fine.
