The losses continue to stack up. Following the NHL Trade Deadline, the Calgary Flames have lost seven of their last nine games. Their latest loss came against one of the league’s worst in the Chicago Blackhawks by a 3–1 score. Now that playoffs are officially off the table, a focus on the NHL Draft and the draft lottery become front and centre.
At this point, losing games isn’t the end of the world. You can never ask your team to lose games. But given their position, it’s not the end of the world if they continue to lose games. Just a few days ago, the loss against the Sabres propelled them to 10th overall in the draft lottery—a much better position than the 16th overall position they drafted last year, but it’d be even better if they could get a higher pick than 10th.
Why it is beneficial to get a higher draft pick
Some can argue the difference between say ninth overall and 12th overall isn’t very big. But based on past data, your chances of hitting both an NHL player and a star player increase as you move higher in the draft. It’s not a guarantee, but it is mathematically proven that your hit rate on a player does increase the higher you draft. Given that playoffs are off the table, it is a beneficial strategic point.
This is before you even look at the lottery odds, which increase the lower a team falls standings-wise. Macklin Celebrini is going to be a great player, and winning the lottery to select him would be franchise-altering. Moving from 11th overall to eighth overall, for example, doubles the lottery odds from 3.0% to 6.0%. By no means are those favourable odds to win, but there is a small chance that the Flames fortunes change for the better. With the NHL’s recent draft lottery changes, a team can only move up ten spots. So, it is automatically favourable when rebuilding to fall at least into the bottom eleven for a chance at securing the top pick.
A look at the NHL’s updated standings
Tuesday’s results favoured the Flames’ lottery position. The Pittsburgh Penguins, who held onto the ninth overall position before tonight, moved past the Flames with a 4–1 win over the Hurricanes. The Seattle Kraken, who hold the eighth overall position, beat the Anaheim Ducks by a score of 4–0.
With the Flames loss, and Kraken and Penguins wins, here’s an updated look at the bottom sixteen standings, sorted by points percentage:
| Team | Draft Position (pre-draft lottery) | Games Played | Points | Points Percentage | First Overall Lottery Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Sharks | 1st | 71 | 40 | 0.282 | 25.5% |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 2nd | 72 | 47 | 0.326 | 13.5% |
| Anaheim Ducks | 3rd | 72 | 52 | 0.361 | 11.5% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 4th | 72 | 58 | 0.403 | 9.5% |
| Arizona Coyotes | 5th | 72 | 65 | 0.451 | 8.5% |
| Ottawa Senators | 6th | 70 | 64 | 0.457 | 7.5% |
| Montreal Canadiens | 7th | 71 | 66 | 0.465 | 6.5% |
| Calgary Flames | T-8th | 71 | 71 | 0.500 | 6.0% |
| Seattle Kraken | T-8th | 71 | 71 | 0.500 | 6.0% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | T-10th | 71 | 72 | 0.507 | 3.5% |
| Buffalo Sabres | T-10th | 72 | 73 | 0.507 | 3.5% |
| New Jersey Devils | 12th | 73 | 76 | 0.521 | – |
| New York Islanders | 13th | 71 | 75 | 0.528 | – |
| Minnesota Wild | 14th | 71 | 77 | 0.542 | – |
| Detroit Red Wings | 15th | 72 | 79 | 0.549 | – |
| St Louis Blues | 16th | 72 | 80 | 0.556 | – |
A step in the right direction
The right thing for the Flames to do to close out the season is to play their young prospects for an assessment of the future, and then lose a few more games for the betterment of the future.
The out-of-town scoreboard worked out very well for Calgary in the March 26 slate of games. Let’s hope it keeps panning out in Calgary’s favour.
