It’s been less than two months since the Calgary Flames dealt Elias Lindholm to the Vancouver Canucks, but it’s shaping up to be a fleecing by Craig Conroy.
The Flames received Andrei Kuzmenko, Vancouver’s 2024 first-round pick, and prospects Hunter Brzustewicz and Joni Jurmo in the deal. The way things are going for Lindholm in Vancouver, it looks like a 1-for-1 swap with him and Kuzmenko would’ve been fair.
Lindholm, on a contract year, has mustered just four goals in 19 games with his new team. His underlying numbers are rough, and he’s been moved down to the third line away from Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller.
Things can change. Lindholm could explode in the playoffs and lead the Canucks to a Stanley Cup. But right now, it looks like the Flames made out like bandits.
New prospects in Calgary’s system
It will take years to see how the prospects impact the Lindholm trade, but especially Hunter Brzustewicz looks like he could be a key NHLer for the Flames in the future.
Brzustewicz was taken in the third round of last year’s draft by the Canucks and has really broken out as part of the Kitchener Rangers in the OHL this year. He leads the entire league (as a defenceman, mind you) in assists with 77 to go along with 12 goals. Amid such a great draft+1 year, it’s no wonder Conroy saw Brzustewicz as a key piece for the Flames’ future.
Another third-round pick by the Canucks, defenseman Joni Jurmo was selected in 2020 and will need to right the ship if he wants to play in the NHL. He started the year with Ilves in Liiga—the top Finnish league—but his minutes plummeted and he was traded to KooKoo. He’s also struggled there, seeing his ice time go to other defencemen. He’s a big body who was once a highly-touted prospect but will need to get his game back on track if he wants to make an impact with the Flames.
What happened to Elias Lindholm
Once seen as a franchise centreman, Lindholm is now being deployed with Ilya Mikheyev and Sam Lafferty on Vancouver’s third line. Two seasons removed from scoring 42 goals, why has his production plummeted?
For one, he’s no longer playing with Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk. The trio formed one of the best lines in all of hockey in the 2021–22 season, but it’s looking more and more like that was because of Gaudreau and Tkachuk, not so much Lindholm.
In 2021–22, Calgary outscored their opponents 85–38 while Lindholm was on the ice at 5v5. Last year, they won his minutes 52–46. Before being dealt this year, the Flames were losing his minutes 34–29. His expected goals percentage was even lower, sitting at 44.7% according to NaturalStatTrick.com. This year is the first since his rookie stint he sits at below 50% expected goals for.
Things have not improved since joining Vancouver. His expected goals percentage is the same, and the Canucks are losing his 5v5 minutes 9–7. He has played with Elias Pettersson more than any other Vancouver forward but as mentioned, has fallen out of favour with Rick Tocchet and is now centring their third line. After paying so much to get him, the Canucks can’t be very happy with his play.
Andrei Kuzmenko should be a key piece for the Flames moving forward
The only NHLer the Flames received in the deal, Kuzmenko broke into the league last year and scored 39 goals as a rookie (albeit a 26-year-old one). His scoring dipped this year, as he scored just eight goals for the Canucks before the trade. He was healthy scratched multiple times in Vancouver—a sign they were probably ready to move on.
Underneath the hood, though, Kuzmenko’s numbers remained solid. At 5v5, he owned a 52.7% expected goals rate on the Canucks, and the team won his minutes 26–24. While he was on the ice, Vancouver produced 22 more high-danger chances than their opponents according to NaturalStatTrick.
Since joining the Flames, it’s been a similar story. The team has been outscored while he’s on the ice, but Calgary is dominating his minutes in terms of high-danger chances and his expected goals percentage sits above 50 at 5v5. His production hasn’t reached last year’s levels, but he is back to scoring goals with five in 15 games.
He and Yegor Sharangovich seem to have great chemistry, owning 61.5% of expected goals playing together. The Flames will probably want to find them a winger not named Dryden Hunt to help them out, though. Hunt has held his own with a strong NHL stint right now, but other options may work better for Sharangovich and Kuzmenko.
Kuzmenko adds to Calgary’s power play
Kuzmenko is also a great addition to the Flames’ brutal power play. He scored 14 goals on the man advantage last year and has already scored two in Calgary. The power play is easily one of the Flames’ biggest weaknesses, so getting an upgrade over Lindholm for the top unit is tidy business.
With another year on his deal, Kuzmenko will have plenty of time to prove to Flames’ management he deserves another contract with the team.
Best case scenario for the Flames
I haven’t even mentioned the first-round pick the Flames received in this year’s draft. And with the Western Conference being an absolute blood bath, it would not be a surprise to see Vancouver bounced early in the playoffs. They could end up playing the reigning Cup champions—the Vegas Golden Knights—in the first round.
So how does Calgary end up the decisive winner of the deal?
I think it’d be a combination of two things.
First, is if Kuzmenko’s production starts to climb. If he can prove to be a 30-goal scorer consistently, and a power play asset, it would be a great get for the Flames who desperately need a scoring spark.
I don’t see Jurmo as an NHLer anytime soon, but if Hunter Brzustewicz and whoever the Flames pick with Vancouver’s first-rounder can make an impact in the league, Calgary will have received three solid players for an expiring, struggling Elias Lindholm.
What will make the Flames massive winners of the trade is if Lindholm continues his poor play and leaves the Canucks in the offseason. Realistically, this doesn’t change the package Calgary received and doesn’t directly impact them at all. But it would be a giant waste for the Canucks, and as a result, a huge win for the Flames.
