Following the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline, the Calgary Flames now hold 14 picks in the first three rounds of the next three NHL drafts. That total is top five in the entire NHL as the organization has fully invested in their future. With many of those picks come some interesting conditions that could make the Flames draft capital even more valuable.
With so many conditions to watch for, let’s take a deeper look at some of the best and worst outcomes for each draft pick the team now owns.
Vegas’ 2024 third-round pick
The Flames currently own Vegas’ third-round draft pick in 2024 as part of the Noah Hanifin trade. The trade can become a second-round pick if conditions are met. Given the return for Hanifin was already considered light, it’s pretty important for the Flames to have this pick turn into a second to make the return more palatable.
Best case scenario
The conditions on this one are pretty clear. If Vegas wins at least one round in the 2024 playoffs, the Flames will receive the Golden Knights’ second-round pick in 2025 instead of their third-round pick in 2024. Given they’ve stacked up at the deadline, this one seems like a strong bet, although with Vegas currently sitting in a wild card spot, it won’t be a cakewalk either.
As of right now, their most likely opponents would be the Canucks or Stars. Even if they move into a seeded Pacific Division spot, they’d likely face the Edmonton Oilers in round one. In short, Vegas is far from a guarantee to win a round even with their recent additions.
If we’re talking best-case scenario, the dream would be for the Golden Knights to win a round this season and then fall off next year, meaning their second-round pick sent to Calgary would land in the first half of the second round and somewhere in the 33–50 range. If the fall-off extends to 2025–26, then the first-round pick to Calgary could be an even better fetch as well.
Worst case scenario
Like the best-case scenario, the worst-case scenario is straightforward. If Vegas fails to win a round this year the Flames will stick with Vegas’ third-round pick in 2025. As mentioned above, it looks like Vegas is going to get a really tough opponent in the first round and won’t have it easy, so this is a very real possibility even after they stacked up.
Currently, The Athletic has Vegas with a 46% chance of making the second round of the playoffs so it’s essentially a coin flip on whether or not Calgary gets stuck with the third-round pick. In an absolute worst-case scenario, Vegas makes a run to close out the regular season, climbs way up the standings, but then loses in the first round this year. This would leave the Flames with a third-round pick in the 88–92 range.
Vancouver’s 2024 fourth-round pick
Calgary currently owns the better of Vancouver’s fourth-round picks in the 2024 draft from the Elias Lindholm. The pick can become a third-round pick if conditions are met.
Best case scenario
If the Canucks make the Western Conference Final this season, the Flames will receive a third-round pick in 2024 instead of a fourth-round pick in 2024, so that’s what we’re rooting for. Currently, the Canucks are first in the Pacific Division and the Western Conference and are a lock for home-ice advantage until at least the conference final which is good news for the Flames.
That said The Athletic currently has the Canucks with a 19% chance of making the conference final this season. They actually have them with fourth-best odds in the Western Conference so they aren’t confident despite the Canucks’ place in the standings.
The absolute best-case scenario would be the Canucks somehow falling out of the division lead in the Pacific to close out the regular season. With Thatcher Demko out for the next three weeks and the Oilers holding three games in hand, it’s not impossible. We would then want the Canucks to make the conference final and lose. This would mean the Flames would receive the Canucks 2024 third-round pick that could be as high as 93rd overall depending on regular season standings.
Worst case scenario
The Flames sticking with a fourth-round pick seems much more likely. The inverse of 19% of making the conference final is an 81% chance to miss it, so the odds aren’t in the Flames’ favour right now. If they fail to make the final four, the Flames are stuck with a fourth-rounder.
The good news is if the pick remains a fourth-rounder, the Flames will receive the higher of the New Jersey Devils fourth-round pick or the Canucks. Given the current standings, it’s essentially a guarantee they receive the Devils’ pick.
However, if we want to consider the worst-case scenario, the Devils would squeak into the playoffs and then go on a run to the Conference final. The Devils are currently six points out of the playoffs with a 2% chance to get in according to the Athletic so there is still a slim chance it happens. If this happens and the Canucks finish first place in the NHL and then lose in the second round of the playoffs, the Flames would end up with the Canucks pick that would be 124th in the draft.
Dallas’ 2026 third-round pick
Calgary owns Dallas’ third-round pick in the 2026 draft as part of the Chris Tanev trade, however, the Flames will only receive the pick if conditions are met.
Best case scenario
This one is pretty straightforward. The Flames will only receive Dallas’ third-round pick in 2026 if they make the 2024 Stanley Cup Final this season. Currently, The Athletic has Dallas with a 21% chance of making the final, the best odds in the entire Western Conference. It’s still a long-shot bet, but there may not be a better team to bet on than Dallas right now.
The best scenario for the Flames is that Dallas of course makes the final, and then loses. This would land the pick as the second last pick of the third round, at 95th overall. Considering the alternative, that’d be a big win.
Worst case scenario
There isn’t much else to discuss here considering the conditions on the pick. The worst-case scenario is that Dallas does not make the final which means the Flames will not receive any pick from Dallas.
The worst case scenario in the entire Western Conference playoffs
You might have noticed that there are three playoff teams all in the West that having clashing conditions. There’s the absolute worst case that botches all the conditions against Calgary’s favour in one fell swoop.
If we want to discuss the most painful scenario, Dallas knocks off both Vancouver and Vegas, thus ruining the Flames other conditional picks, only to lose in overtime of Game 7 of the conference final. We fully expect this to happen because, as per Calgary Flames destiny, of course it will.
Calgary’s 2025 first-round pick, sent to Montreal
Turning to picks that were traded away rather than acquired, there’s a big one for Calgary.
As we all know now, Calgary will give up a first-round pick in one of the next three drafts to Montreal due to the Sean Monahan deal. Given it’s essentially a guarantee that the pick won’t be in 2024, there are some clear best- and worst-case scenarios starting to form as we near a conclusion to the seemingly endless conditions.
Best case scenario
As of right now, there is a clear best-case scenario forming for the pick the Flames owe Montreal. Unless Calgary pulls off a miracle and finishes in the 20–32 range this season and Montreal for some reason wants that pick, the 2025 draft is where Calgary will very likely send Montreal a first-round pick.
For some further context, the Flames will own both their own pick as well as Florida’s first-round pick in 2025. The Flames’ pick is top 10 protected, as is Florida’s pick. However if one or both of the picks are outside the top 10, the Canadiens will receive the higher pick of the two.
With the above knowledge, the best-case scenario would be for the Flames to finish in the bottom 10 and Florida to win the Stanley Cup next season in 2024–25. This would mean the Flames will retain their pick in 2025 as it’s top 10 protected, and Montreal will receive Florida’s first-round pick which would be 32nd overall. Losing a first-round pick is tough, but if it’s the absolute last pick of the first round it would be much less painful.
Worst case scenario
Now for the fun part. There are a plethora of worst case scenarios for the Flames given how light some of the protections are in the original deal. Thanks, Brad Treliving. When going over all the possible outcomes, there are two very clear absolute worst cases.
As we discussed above Calgary’s pick in 2025 is top 10 protected, but so is Florida’s. The start of the worst-case scenario for the Flames would be Calgary and Florida both finishing in the bottom 10. Given where Florida is as an organization right now it seems highly unlikely they are a bottom 10 team next season, but it’s far from impossible.
In the unlikely event, this does happen and both teams are in the bottom 10 next season, Florida will retain their 2025 first-round pick and Montreal will receive Calgary’s pick in 2025 with the only protection being if it’s first overall. So in this worst-case scenario, Florida finishes anywhere in the bottom 10 and Calgary finishes second last in the NHL next season meaning Calgary will give Montreal the second overall pick. Not great.
However, there is a potential even worse case scenario depending on how you look at it. If the above happens and both Calgary and Florida finish in the bottom 10, but Calgary finishes with the first overall pick in 2025, Montreal will then receive Calgary’s unprotected 2026 first. So in this worst-case scenario Calgary then finishes the 2025–26 season with the first overall pick (AKA Gavin McKenna) and has to send it to Montreal.
For this to occur Calgary would have to earn the first overall pick in the 2025 draft, so there is some debate to be had if it would be worse to straight up lose the second overall pick in 2025, or get the first overall pick in 2025 but then lose the first overall pick in 2026. Given the likely first overall pick in 2026 is a potential generational talent in McKenna, this scenario could haunt the Flames for decades even if it means they’re picking first in 2025.
Vested interests in the playoffs
The upcoming 2024 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs will be one where tuning into virtually every series will be a necessity to keep track of all the draft pick movements for the Calgary Flames. Far too many series are guaranteed to impact the Calgary Flames’ future. Let’s hope it’s for the better.
