Dustin Wolf has proved he is too good for the AHL. In 140 career games, he’s posted a .926 save percentage, taken home two goalie of the year awards, and has won league MVP. But for the 6’0″ netminder, the biggest question is whether his size will hold him back in the NHL.
It’s never stopped him from succeeding before. Wolf has won everywhere he’s been, never posting a save percentage below .924 in a full season since joining the WHL in 2017–18. There’s a reason he wasn’t drafted until the seventh round, though.
Of the 29 goalies in the NHL with over 15 wins this season, just one is Wolf’s height or shorter: Juuse Saros.
It’s very simple. The bigger a goalie is, the more of the net he takes up. Tall goalies rule the league, with the likes of Connor Hellebuyck, Jacob Markstrom, Thatcher Demko and Adin Hill (the top four in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes with at least 30 games played according to MoneyPuck) all standing at 6’4″ or taller.
Wolf will have to be an outlier to have success in the NHL. But there’s proof it’s possible.
Success stories for shorter goaltenders
Juuse Saros is the best example of a small goalie that’s made it to the top. He posts a career .918 save percentage and led all goalies in goals saved above expected last season according to MoneyPuck. At just 5’11”, he has to rely on elite edges, instincts and vision to keep up with his taller counterparts.
Even Igor Shesterkin is only an inch taller than Wolf at 6’1″. Like other small goalies, Shesterkin needs to be able to cut off shooters aggressively to take away the net. Taller goalies like Jacob Markstrom can stay lower in the crease to give themselves more time to react without leaving too much of the net open. Shorter netminders don’t have that luxury.
Some of the most successful goalies of the 2010s were also smaller, but none as short as Wolf. Hall of Famer Henrik Lundqvist is 6’1″, along with Braden Holtby and Jonathan Quick (who’s having a crazy bounceback year this season).
So it’s not impossible for Wolf to translate all his success to the NHL. Being 6 feet tall does not disqualify him from being a Vezina-level goalie, it just makes it harder.
The odds are still stacked for shorter goalies
There have been just two goalies under 6’1″ taken in the first three rounds of the NHL draft in the last five years. No one with a height starting with the number 5 has been picked. Simply put, small goalies have a much harder time getting their shot than their taller competition. The fact Wolf has even gotten this far is impressive in itself.
But there are goalies who have had similar trajectories to Wolf who fizzled out.
Short goalies who were the best in the AHL
In two straight seasons in the early 2010s, a goalie 6’0″ or under won the Baz Bastien Memorial Award for the AHL’s best goaltender.
First, it was Brad Thiessen in 2010–11. Thiessen put up a .922 save percentage with seven shutouts after putting up a .914 as a rookie the year before. He played five NHL games the next season with a dreadful .858 save percentage. Thiessen struggled towards the end of his career, but consistently put up save percentages in the .920s during his peak in the AHL. Yet, he never got a real shot in the NHL.
Then it was Yann Danis in 2011–12. Danis’ best stretch of AHL goaltending came with the Oklahoma City Barons where he posted a .924 SV% and 2.07 GAA in 43 appearances. Danis had a unique path as a goaltender. He was undrafted and debuted in the AHL in 2003–04. After two successful AHL seasons, he got called up in 2005–06 by the Montreal Canadiens and played his way to a .908 save percentage in six games (similar to Wolf’s .905 in his first 10 games).
Danis got a chance to really play in 2008–09 for the New York Islanders and finished the year with a .910 in 31 games. Even with pretty good NHL results, he would only play 18 NHL games for the rest of his career.
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What to expect of Wolf
Thiessen and Danis were never top prospects like Wolf, and they didn’t put up quite the same numbers as he has in the AHL. But they are both cautionary tales that Wolf’s success might not follow him to the NHL.
Games like Wolf’s latest appearance against the Montreal Canadiens make me think he’ll be fine, though. Wolf displayed his elite quickness and appropriate aggressiveness all night, leading the Flames to a 5–2 win as they were outshot 38–28. His lateral movement has always been a strength, and it will help make up for his lack of size moving post to post.
If the Flames decide to sit Jacob Markstrom the rest of the way—or even trade him in the offseason—Wolf will get more opportunity than Thiessen and Danis ever did. And that’s the biggest thing for Wolf. He has cemented himself as a goalie too good for the AHL but needs the chance to prove himself in the NHL.
Smaller goalies are never given the benefit of the doubt. Even if he ends the season well, there might still be questions surrounding Wolf heading into next year. But the way things are going, it looks like the Flames have their goalie of the future.
Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire
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