The Calgary Flames’ ownership made a number of major changes this season—like moving on from their top centre and three defencemen—but have been clear that the team still intends to make the playoffs this season. The playoffs however, still seem like a long way away. The Flames sit a whopping eight points out of the playoff picture and are sixth in the wild card race, not great for their Stanley Cup odds.
The Flames will certainly have to beat the odds just to sneak into the playoffs as the second wild card team this year. Not to look too far ahead, but the second wild card position will all but guarantee a first round date with one of the Vancouver Canucks, Dallas Stars, Winnipeg Jets, or Colorado Avalanche. Anyway, I’m getting ahead of myself; here are the odds of them making the postseason this year.
What does the playoff picture look like?
Three teams in the Pacific Division that are currently in a playoff spot are the Canucks, Edmonton Oilers, and Los Angeles Kings. Both Vancouver and Edmonton are pretty firmly in the playoffs right now, while Los Angeles is right on the cusp right now.
If the playoffs started today, the Vegas Golden Knights and Nashville Predators would take the two wild card spots in the West, with both tied with the Kings with 73 points this season. The Kings, however, have two games in hand.
The challenge is that the Central Division is pretty tied up to this point. The lowest team in that division has 83 points, and the fight will be between them to duke out who sits first, second, and third. There is a slim chance that one of those teams will fall out of the playoff picture, but odds are that all the teams in the Central will be fighting for a wild card spot.
What are the odds the Flames make the playoffs?
The Flames sit with 65 points on the season, eight points back. However, they do have 21 games remaining in their season, among the most in the entire conference. This should give them the greatest chance to close the gap. Unfortunately, their first couple of games after the trade deadline don’t exactly inspire many as a team capable of closing said gap.
The glimmer of hope comes from the fact that the Flames have a remarkably easy schedule on paper remaining in the year. According to Tankathon, the Flames have the 29th most difficult schedule remaining, or the fourth easiest schedule remaining on the year.
For the balance of the year, the Flames take on the Chicago Blackhawks once, San Jose Sharks twice, Anaheim Ducks twice, Arizona Coyotes once and the Montreal Canadiens once. Their tough opponents remaining are the Canucks and Kings twice, as well as the Jets, Avalanche, and Edmonton Oilers once a piece. The Flames have tended to be much better against tough opponents than easier ones, so this may ironically not be good news for the Flames.
Currently, the Flames sit with a 6.7% chance of making the playoffs, which is really not great. According to Moneypuck, the Canucks, Oilers, and Kings have a greater than 90% chance of making the playoffs, with Vegas and Nashville both having a greater than 80% chance. In the west, Seattle and Minnesota both have greater playoff odds than the Flames this season.
A different model over at Hockey Reference has similar numbers, The Flames sit at a 10% chance of making the playoffs, with Vancouver, Edmonton, Los Angeles, and Vegas all earning a playoff spot from the Pacific Division.
What does this all mean for the Flames?
There is a very low chance that the Calgary Flames make the playoffs this season, and will instead find themselves in the draft lottery for the chance to pick first overall. As part of any rebuild, the Flames should be pushing for a higher pick in the lottery. This likely involves playing their younger prospects more, and seeing if they can not win a little more often.
There will be a point in the season where the Flames will have to be real with themselves, from the front office to the coaching staff to the players. No one wants to lose games on any given night, but the team’s decisions from now until the end of the season can have a major role on reducing the number of losses in the future well beyond this season. Getting buy-in to the bigger picture from the players for future years is arguably just as important a job as getting single-season buy-in each and every year.
