How Brayden Pachal has looked with the Calgary Flames so far

The Calgary Flames have made a lot of moves this season, with the most notable being the trades they’ve made. One we saw Wednesday night sent Chris Tanev to the Dallas Stars for defensive prospect Artem Grushnikov, a 2024 second round pick, and a conditional 2026 third. Other than trades, they have also made a pair of waiver claims. The first came earlier in the season with A.J. Greer and the second more recently with Brayden Pachal. Pachal was struggling with the Vegas Golden Knights, but it’s been the opposite since joining the Flames.

Breaking down the numbers

We’ll take a look at Pachal’s overall 5v5 adjusted numbers via NaturalStatTrick when he was on the Golden Knights and compare them to his time with the Flames so far.

Player/Team	CF%	xG%	SCF%	HDCF%	xGA/60
Brayden Pachal (Overall)	45.62	46.24	51.29	40.70	2.61
Brayden Pachal (VGK)	41.00	37.48	44.05	29.55	3.26
Brayden Pachal (CGY)	48.18	59.32	56.41	54.90	2.17

Starting by looking at the overall numbers, they are not the greatest. Almost every stat being under 50.00% is not good at all, and the 40.70 HDCF% looks very concerning. An xGA/60 of 2.61 isn’t bad, but it’s very very average. His overall stats don’t look like anything special, but when you break down his two separate stints, you can get a better understanding.

With the Golden Knights, Pachal was downright terrible in his 17 games. Each stat is below 45.00%, which is hard to state how bad that is. His HDCF% being at 29.55 is actually crazy. This would put him as one of the worst players in a singular category in the entire league. An xGA/60 of 3.26 isn’t pretty either.

But, since Pachal joined the Flames, he’s been the exact opposite performance-wise of what he was in Vegas. His 10 games in Calgary so far have seen him improve to having every stat above 50.00% except for his CF%, which is very close at 48.18. Other than that, each category has an impressive number, especially his xG% being near 60.00% at 59.32. His 2.17 xGA/60 is also very good.

The craziest thing to look at is the difference in the numbers during his time with Vegas compared to his current time with the Flames. The lowest difference is a 7.18% rise in his CF%, which is still a pretty solid difference on its own. But the other gaps put it to shame. The other three see changes above 10.00%, the least of the three being a +12.36% difference with his SCF%. Then you get to the differences with xG% and HDCF% and it’s absurd. Both show a +20.00% difference, which shows a strong improvement in play. His xGA/60 has also dropped by more than a goal.

Evaluating Pachal’s play using a model

Now, we’ll take a look at Pachal through an analytics model. Using HockeyViz.com, let’s view both Vegas’ and Calgary’s 5v5 game with and without Pachal.

Looking here, we get the same story that Pachal was not very good with Vegas. Starting with the offence, it dropped an ugly -19%. With smaller sample sizes, the model can create lots of areas with deep colour, and while it likely wouldn’t be as exaggerated with more time, it still gives a good idea. With Pachal on the ice, there was a strong lack of offence in many areas. Most importantly, the slot and around the net area is where the largest absence was. Then, moving to the defensive end, it isn’t as bad—but it’s close. Vegas went from a +3% to a +14%, and considering that a positive score is bad when it comes to defence, this is once again terrible. The slot and around the net area have a bad impact, which plays a huge role.

Again, Pachal with the Flames has been the opposite of him with Vegas. The offence improves a lot, going from -4% to +13%—a change of +17%. This trend continues with the offence in the slot and around the net area being produced at a high rate and not a complete absence like in Vegas. With defence, it’s not as big of an improvement, but it’s still good. It increases by +9%, going from +3% to -6%. The best defensive impact comes from the middle of the zone, stretching all the way down to the net. This does cover the slot area again.

Brayden Pachal looks great so far in Calgary

After being claimed off waivers, Brayden Pachal has been quite good with the Calgary Flames. He’s looked way better than he did with the Golden Knights and has brought a positive impact both offensively and defensively. We went over purely stats and analytics in this article, but Pachal looks good as you watch, too. With Tanev being traded Wednesday night, Pachal could make his way up the lineup, and if he does, it’ll be interesting to see if he can continue this play in a larger role.