With a come-from-behind win on Monday, the Calgary Flames moved one step closer to the playoffs as we enter the final two months of the season. The closer we get to the trade deadline, the more the trade rumours spark up.
Front and center in those rumours in recent days has been Jacob Markstrom. After Elliotte Friedman revealed the Flames and New Jersey Devils had what he called “serious talks” on Markstrom, he immediately moved up to number one on NHL trade boards.
Whether or not the Flames should move Markstrom is an entirely different discussion, but if he does become available, who would be potential trade fits for the Flames? With his big salary and current age, there are likely only a couple true fits for the 34-year-old. Let’s take a look at some teams who could use Markstrom’s services.
Comparable trades over the years
Starting goaltenders of Markstrom’s caliber don’t become available on the trade market very often, if ever. There have only been a couple instances over the past 15 years where a player like Markstrom was traded. Here’s how the most comparable trades looked.
| Season | Goaltender Traded | Return |
|---|---|---|
| 2021–22 (Offseason) | Darcy Kuemper | 2022 1st, 2024 3rd, Connor Timmins |
| 2016–17 (Offseason) | Frederik Andersen | 2016 1st, 2017 2nd |
| 2013–14 | Ryan Miller | 2015 1st, 2016 3rd, Jaroslav Halak, Chris Stewart, William Carrier |
| 2013–14 (Offseason) | Cory Schneider | 2013 1st (9th overall) |
| 2011–12 (Offseason) | Semyon Varlamov | 2012 1st, 2012 2nd |
The first thing that stands out is just how rare a trade like this is during the season. Dating back to the 2011–12 season, only one true starting goaltender of Markstrom’s caliber has been traded during the season. That lone example is when a 34-year-old Ryan Miller was shipped to the Blues for a haul at the 2014 trade deadline.
Miller was in the midst of a strong season, sitting with a .923 save percentage and 2.72 GAA across 40 games for a poor Buffalo Sabres roster. All things considered, this is a near-perfect comparison for Markstrom, and the return is right around what the Flames should be targeting. The Sabres got a 1st round pick, a 3rd round pick, a veteran cap dump in Jaroslav Halak, as well as two younger roster players with potential.
The one big difference is that Miller was a pending unrestricted free agent when he was dealt. Markstrom having two years left on his deal should only increase his return compared to Miller.
Markstrom’s superb season
Despite some recent struggles, Markstrom has been tremendous for most of the 2023–24 season. He’s by far been the team’s most valuable player and is the main reason they remain in the playoff hunt. His numbers have been near the top of the league among starters, as he’s looked like a true Vezina candidate this season.
| Stat | Jacob Markstrom | League Rank (among goalies with 20+ GP) |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 18 | 11th |
| Save Percentage | .913 | 12th |
| GAA | 2.60 | 13th |
| HDSV% | .882 | 1st |
| GSAx | 30.29 | 2nd |
Markstrom’s primary numbers really don’t match just how good he’s been this season. Playing behind a porous Flames group can do that. When you dig a little deeper though, you realize just how good he’s been. He currently leads the entire NHL in high danger save percentage (HDSV%) and is second in goals saved above expected (GSAx). Connor Hellebuyck—who is currently the Vezina frontrunner—is the only other goalie league-wide with a GSAx of at least 30.
It’s not like the Flames are making it easy on him either. The Flames have been incredibly average in their own zone this year and far the defensive juggernaut they were over the past couple seasons under Darryl Sutter. Despite this, Markstrom is still dominating and giving them a chance to win every night.
Below are his save percentages compared to his expected save percentage given the team he plays behind. It’s quite clear Markstrom is putting up these incredible results in spite of the Flames, not because of them.
The frontrunner – New Jersey Devils
As well know, the Devils are the clear frontrunner for Markstrom if he’s dealt. They’re the only team so far that we know has had discussions with the Flames, so much so that it’s been reported Markstrom was even asked to waive his no-move clause to go there.
It’s easy to understand why the Devils have been the main team in on Markstrom so far. The fit is just perfect for both sides. The Devils came into the season expected to be a true contender in the East but have found themselves chasing a playoff spot all season, in large part due to poor goaltending. The Devils’ starter, Vitek Vanecek, has posted an ugly .890 save percentage across 32 games this season and, as a team, the Devils rank 27th in the NHL for save percentage at 5v5.
Vanecek has now lost his starting job to rookie Nico Daws. If the Devils are hoping to save their season, they desperately need a surefire starting goaltender before it’s too late. On top of that, with Markstrom still signed for two more years, it gives the Devils another two shots at the cup with Markstrom behind their impressive young core and allows him to settle into the team this season.
For the Flames, the Devils have a lot to like in terms of assets they could acquire for Markstrom. They’ve got plenty of draft capital to throw around as they hold their first-round picks in the next three drafts, as well as their second-round picks in 2025 and 2026. On top of that, they possess a plethora of young talent in their system that could interest the Flames as they look to get back to being a competitive team.
Here is the framework for a deal that could work for both sides.
To New Jersey: Jacob Markstrom ($2,000,000 retained)
To Calgary: 2024 1st round pick (top 10 protected), 2024 3rd round pick, Alexander Holtz, Vitek Vanecek
Overall, this deal is very similar to the Miller one back in 2013–14. The Flames get some draft capital as well as a valuable young roster player in Alexander Holtz, plus a veteran cap dump in Vanecek. Holtz just hasn’t found a home in New Jersey and has fallen out of favour with head coach Lindy Ruff this season. He’s regularly found himself playing under 10 minutes a night this season and looks ready for a change of scenery.
As a 6’0″ right shot winger with a ton of skill, Holtz is exactly what the Flames should be looking to add to their organization right now. He would immediately become one of the most exciting talents in the organization and would help them get younger and more skilled.
The main stickup in the original deal was reportedly salary retention, so I have Calgary retaining right around 33% on Markstrom as well as taking back Vanecek’s contract and getting a third-round pick for their troubles. Vanecek would be a pure cap dump for the Flames, as they’d likely look to move him in the summer to make room for Dustin Wolf next season.
Overall, I think this deal would work for both sides as the Flames get younger and increase their draft capital, while the Devils get their elite starting goalie for the next two and a half years to make a run for a Stanley Cup.
Selling high on Markstrom
There’s no question that the Flames have the opportunity to cash in on their 34-year-old netminder. Markstrom’s value is likely higher now than it will ever be again, meaning the Flames would be wise to consider moving him before it’s too late and his value plummets to where it was just a few months ago. Whether or not Craig Conroy pulls the trigger is up for debate, but there’s a strong chance Markstrom is playing somewhere else on March 9.
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