Visualising 2023–24 NHL goals saved above expected up to the All-Star break

Name a more iconic duo than NHL goalies and there being no reasonable way to predict their season-over-season performances. One year’s Vezina finalist could be the next year’s dud. While there are elite goalies in the league who are the epitome of consistency, the reality is that most years, goaltenders see massive swings in their performances and results.

You can reasonably chalk it up to players getting better at shooting, and teams changing entire offensive systems to prioritise high-danger shot quality, or you can simply accept the truth: goaltending is voodoo.

Now that the 2024 NHL All-Star break is complete, teams are returning to action with the finish line in sight. Here are this year’s goals saved above expected (GSAx) results for every goaltender who’s made an appearance in the NHL. Let’s see who reigns supreme.

Goals saved above expected

A refresher on GSAx: it is a measure made to evaluate how many goals a goalie saves above what is expected. Expected goals are models derived from all sorts of quantitative shot data. It can include measures like shot location, events that occur before the shot, and who’s taking the shot.

In short, if a shot has an expected goal of say 0.03 xG, it means based on all historical data, that exact type of shot usually goes in 3% of the time (maybe a shot from the blueline with no traffic). If a shot has a 0.90 xG, then it goes in 90% of the time (maybe a shot from the blueline on an empty net). The shot types described in brackets there don’t actually have xGs of 0.03 and 0.90, but I’m more so illustrating what xG is meant to measure.

Thus GSAx measures the total number of goals a goalie saves above what is expected. If a goalie faces 100 shots that all have xG values of 0.03, then they’d be expected to let in three goals. But if they save all 100 shots instead, they’d have three goals saved above expected.

Hopefully, that clears it up a bit and gives more context to the following charts. GSAx values are calculated using all situations data from NaturalStatTrick.com. All observations are in context of GSAx to provide a different perspective against traditional stats like save percentage and goals against averages.

Western Conference GSAx

The Western Conference saw Cam Talbot of the Los Angeles Kings, Jake Oettinger of the Dallas Stars, and Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets representing them as the initially named All-Stars. After the fan vote, Thatcher Demko of the Vancouver Canucks and Alexandar Georgiev joined them.

When it comes to which goalie has been the best in the West in terms of GSAx, it’s none other than Connor Hellebuyck. He leads the West with a whopping 22.58 GSAx. Scratch that, he leads the league outright. Don’t be surprised if his name is a common one on Vezina ballots by season’s end.

Second in the west is… not-an-All-Star Jacob Markstrom. His return to form after a disastrous season last year has been nothing short of magical and he could also be earning some Vezina votes as well for his game-stealing performances.

Along with Hellebuyck, the West’s All-Stars were also led by Demko. The other three All-Star goalies posted pedestrian results, with Talbot being wedged in the middle of the Pacific, while Georgiev and Oettinger both have negative GSAx results. Georgiev has actually allowed the most goals in the league so far with 115.

Surprise names in the West include Connor Ingram and Joey Daccord, whose ascents as number-one goalies have both been highly inspiring and noteworthy all season long.

Some struggling goalies include Arvid Soderblom, Daniel Vladar, and Marc-Andre Fleury.

Eastern Conference GSAx

In the East, Igor Shesterkin of the New York Rangers was the only representative initially named to the All-Star Game. He was joined by Jeremy Swayman and Sergei Bobrovsky after the fan vote.

In terms of GSAx, Shesterkin has the worst total among Eastern All-Stars, whereas Swayman leads the entire conference. Swayman’s 15.77 GSAx puts him first in the East and fifth in the league. Tristan Jarry joins Swayman as the only Eastern Conference goalies with double-digit GSAx. In contrast, the Western Conference has seven.

The big surprises in the East are notably 38-year-old Jonathan Quick being one of the best goalies in the conference with a solid GSAx in limited minutes, Sam Montembeault making his case as a definite starter, and the team dominance from the Boston Bruins.

Struggling goalies include Joonas Korpisalo and Vitek Vanecek. They both hold the two lowest GSAx in the league. Vanecek is at the very bottom with -15.11 while Korpisalo is not far behind with 14.86.

Finishing the season strong

With the second half of the season already well underway, most teams are going to be turning to the trade deadline as the next big milestone event. Will there be any goalies traded or will teams hold their netminders tight? Only time will tell. One thing is certain, it’s going to be a wild finish to the season and goaltending will definitely factor into that.