It’s not the first time Elias Lindholm was involved in a blockbuster trade with the Calgary Flames, but it will almost certainly be the last.
The deal to send Lindholm to the Vancouver Canucks in return for two picks, two prospects, and Andrei Kuzmenko is by far the biggest deal to happen this season, and it gives the Flames a brand new outlook on the ice.
Kuzmenko is the only NHLer coming back in the deal, and since he’s only been in the NHL for one season, let’s take a closer look at what he is as a player and what he’ll bring to the Flames.
Kuzmenko’s pre-NHL career
Kuzmenko is a 1996-born Russian winger, standing at 5’11” and 194lbs. He was not drafted in his draft year 2014, despite being ranked 26th among international skaters by Central Scouting. He was ranked again in 2016 as a 20-year-old, 47th among international skaters, but again was not drafted.
He’s played in Russia for most of his career, working his way up from the MHL, to the VHL, and finally the KHL for the first time full time in 2016-17. Kuzmenko’s production steadily increased every single year until the 2021-22 season when he had a huge breakout year scoring 20 goals and 53 points in just 45 games for SKA St. Petersburg. He finished second overall in scoring that year, but fell short of the Gagarin cup as SKA lost to the eventual champions CSKA Moscow in a seven-game conference final series.
Internationally, Kuzmenko represented Russia at the World Juniors in 2015-16, playing seven games and scoring zero points, but earning a silver medal. He also represented Russia in 2020-21 at the World Championships scoring two points in two games.
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | PIM | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | Krasnaya Armiya Moskva | MHL | 49 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 0 |
| Russia U17 | WHC-17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | – | |
| 2013-14 | Krasnaya Armiya Moskva | MHL | 36 | 13 | 18 | 31 | 2 | 17 |
| 2014-15 | CSKA Moskva | KHL | 12 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| Krasnaya Armiya Moskva | MHL | 37 | 20 | 21 | 41 | 20 | 8 | |
| Russia U20 (all) | International-Jr | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | – | |
| 2015-16 | CSKA Moskva | KHL | 15 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| Zvezda Chekhov | VHL | 17 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | -4 | |
| Krasnaya Armiya Moskva | MHL | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | |
| Russia U20 | WJC-20 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 2016-17 | CSKA Moskva | KHL | 34 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 6 | 11 |
| Zvezda Chekhov | VHL | 23 | 11 | 17 | 28 | 4 | 19 | |
| Krasnaya Armiya Moskva | MHL | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | |
| 2017-18 | CSKA Moskva | KHL | 45 | 13 | 12 | 25 | 12 | 21 |
| Zvezda Chekhov | VHL | 7 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 7 | |
| Russia II (all) | International | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | – | |
| 2018-19 | SKA St. Petersburg | KHL | 58 | 12 | 19 | 31 | 20 | 23 |
| Russia (all) | International | 8 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2019-20 | SKA St. Petersburg | KHL | 49 | 14 | 19 | 33 | 6 | 20 |
| Russia (all) | International | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2020-21 | SKA St. Petersburg | KHL | 57 | 18 | 19 | 37 | 14 | 17 |
| Russia | WC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Russia (all) | International | 5 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3 | |
| 2021-22 | SKA St. Petersburg | KHL | 45 | 20 | 33 | 53 | 10 | 15 |
It’s clear that Kuzmenko is a classic case of a late bloomer. Scouts identified him as having potential all the way back in his draft year, but it took years of hard work in the KHL to reach that potential. His final KHL season was phenomenal, and Kuzmenko became one of the hottest commodities on the market as NHL teams fought to sign him. The Canucks ended up winning those sweepstakes, and he was fantastic in his first season in the NHL.
Kuzmenko’s time in Vancouver
It wasn’t clear exactly how well Kuzmenko would adjust to the NHL. Would he be like Vadim Shipachyov, or Kirill Kaprizov? The answer was somewhere in between, which was a huge win for the Canucks.
In his first season in the NHL, Kuzmenko played almost exclusively on the wing with Elias Pettersson, en route to a historical season in Vancouver. In 81 games, Kuzmenko put up 39 goals and 78 points, a performance that would have guaranteed his name be etched on the Calder Trophy if he was born seven months later.
In Vancouver, it was extremely apparent that Kuzmenko was a very talented player and a fantastic goal scorer, however he shot at 27% last year and it was expected that regression would happen at some point. That point was this season, when the head coach changed from Bruce Boudreau to Rick Tocchet. Under Tocchet, Kuzmenko saw his ice time drop by 17% and the narrative do a complete 180.
On a per-60 basis, Kuzmenko shot the puck more, but hit the net less, and was heavily criticized for his work ethic by his new coach. “Kuzy needs to start playing harder” was a common theme since Tocchet took over. Sometimes things just don’t work with a new coach, and that’s what it looked like for Kuzmenko under Tocchet.
For a Canucks team that was rolling right out of the gates this season, any type of slow start or a fit that wasn’t working just couldn’t be tolerated, and Kuzmenko fought to stay in the lineup. A change of scenery was something many saw as a need for Kuzmenko, and he got it.
Kuzmenko’s strengths and weaknesses
Sportsnet’s Jason Bukala broke down Kuzmenko’s game in mid-December once trade rumours around the player started to swirl. Here’s a summary of what he said in the article:
- In the NHL, players have different roles, and everyone can’t do everything. In Kuzmenko’s case, he’s an offense first player and shouldn’t be tasked with a heavy defensive shutdown role, that’s just not what he’s built to do.
- Kuzmenko is an effective player between the faceoff dots and below the hash marks in the offensive zone. That’s where he can make a big impact and it’s important to get him to those spots to be successful, ideally on the power play and at 5v5.
- He might be having a down year, but his stats are really not that bad this season. With eight goals and 21 points in 43 games, Kuzmenko is on track for 15 goals and 40 points over 82 games while playing a brutal fourth line role.
- As I stated above, he’s actually shooting the puck more frequently than he did last season, but is playing less and isn’t hitting the net as often. That’s okay, and bound to correct as the season goes on.
- Kuzmenko’s confidence is at an all-time low. He has the potential to get back to the player he was last season, but he was just not feeling it in Vancouver. “There’s been nothing crisp with his handling of the puck. He’s having pucks slide off his blade in high-danger scoring areas and he’s trying to make an extra play instead or ripping the puck on net.”
- The best note is this: “My advice would be for the Canucks to be careful what they ask for. Kuzmenko’s element is hard to find. Sometimes you don’t know what you have until it’s gone.”
For his whole career, Kuzmenko’s calling card has been a purely offensive game. He’s not the smoothest skating player but plays a fast game, has excellent vision in the offensive zone, and has an absolutely lethal shot. He’s not a physical player and shouldn’t be relied on to play strong defensively, but it’s a give and take with players like this.
Kuzmenko’s analytics
It’s interesting looking into Kuzmenko’s underlying metrics because by all accounts he’s having a solid season, the production just hasn’t followed.
Here’s what his underlyings look both last year and this year:
| Season | GP | CF% | SCF% | HDCF% | GF% | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 81 | 51.97 | 51.94 | 50.99 | 57.66 | 53.51 |
| 2023-24 | 43 | 53.06 | 54.70 | 55.91 | 52.00 | 52.71 |
Across the board, Kuzmenko has incredible underlying numbers this season, which are better than his solid numbers last season.
He’s consistently on the ice for more chances for than against, and despite a slower year on the goal scoring front, he’s still coming out ahead when looking at actual and expected goals when he’s on the ice.
Raw values on a per-60 basis are also very strong.
| Season | TOI /GP | CF /60 | CA /60 | SCF /60 | SCA /60 | HDCF /60 | HDCA /60 | GF /60 | GA /60 | xGF /60 | xGA /60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 12:38 | 54.2 | 50.1 | 29.1 | 27.0 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| 2023-24 | 10:31 | 60.8 | 53.8 | 30.1 | 24.9 | 13.8 | 10.9 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
In 2023-24, his “down year”, Kuzmenko is creating offense at a very high rate, essentially in the top-100 for every stat percentage wise among all forwards with 250 minutes at 5v5, which would easily equate to a high-end top-six forward.
Looking at his charts from two popular public models, Kuzmenko is a positive player in both zones, which is very promising.
From HockeyViz.com, he’s an above average player offensively which is expected, but even this +1% is significantly lower than last year when he was at +4.9%, a very high end play driver. On the defensive end, being at -2% is very impressive, especially for a player not known for his defensive play.
From Evolving-Hockey.com, Kuzmenko looks downright elite. He’s an incredible offensive play driver, and more than holds his own defensively.
It really seems like Tocchet didn’t like Kuzmenko’s defensive game, and relegated him to fourth line and pressbox duties for it. It’s a very Darryl Sutter-esque mentality, something that he should not have to deal with in Calgary under Ryan Huska.
Kuzmenko’s fit on the Flames’ roster
With Lindholm’s departure, there’s a very easy way to just plug Kuzmenko onto that line. Simply shift Yegor Sharangovich to the center position and slot Kuzmenko on the right wing. It’s probably how the Flames will start things off, espeically because Kuzmenko’s 39-goal season last year happened on Pettersson’s wing. Putting him with highly offensive players is in the Flames’ best interest.
However, the options are really endless with the way the Flames operate by committee. They had three lines with basically the same ice time, so if the Flames choose to move Connor Zary to the middle, for example, which is something he has expressed interest in, perhaps Kuzmenko can fit in there.
Regardless of where he slots in at 5v5, he’ll get a ton of opportunity to showcase his offensive game, which should instill a ton of confidence in Kuzmenko and give him the fresh start he needs.
The real benefit here is his work on the power play. With Kuzmenko being a right shot just like Lindholm, you can easily swap him onto the top power play unit. The power play hasn’t been a bright spot this season, but adding a player which a much higher offensive ceiling could be the key to unlocking this part of special teams. Kuzmenko’s vision and creativity down low can really open things up for the Flames and perhaps bring an element they didn’t have this season.
A smart gamble
For a team that is trying to enter a new era of offensive creativity, the move to bring in Kuzmenko is a smart one. He’s coming to the Flames in a deal where he’s serving as a cap dump, so really he’s at his lowest possible value, and there is only one way to go from here: up.
Watch for Kuzmenko to come out flying, and be a truly fun player to watch go to work in the offensive zone.
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