I’ll argue both cases and we’ll see where it lands us. Note, the stats in the article are accurate as of Sunday, January 21, 8:30 p.m. MST from NHL.com.
Some optimistic positives for the Flames
There are no two ways about it, the Flames have been playing impressive hockey—that was at least before the unfortunate, borderline-cursed losses to Toronto and Edmonton. They were 10–4–0 in their last 14 games, and 7–2–0 in their last nine. Those point percentages (.714 and .777, respectively) over those two stretches are among the best in the league.
Jacob Markstrom is probably the player that generates the most optimism on this team. The 2021–22 Vezina finalist started poorly but over the aforementioned stretch has been dominant, with a .936 save percentage and a 2.02 goals against average. This is encouraging because, even though Markstrom has been excellent, good goaltending is almost always a result of better team defending, something that was sorely missed at the start of this season.
The penalty kill is also a bright spot for the Flames. It is ranked fourth (84.3%) in the NHL this year and is tied for second in the NHL with 10 shorthanded goals.
Now the main reason we are able to consider the possibility of the Flames making the postseason is not only the recent excellent play of the Flames but also the recent slide of the Los Angeles Kings. The Kings started the season exceptionally but are now knee-deep in a dismal January after a very middling December. They have now surrendered their Pacific third place position to the Oilers, thus falling into the free-for-all that is wild card contention.
With play similar to the 14-game stretch, the Flames could easily hold off the other wild card contenders (Nashville, Seattle, Arizona, St. Louis) and I would not be so surprised to see five teams from the Pacific Division in the Playoffs. Let’s not forget that 14 games is not a short stretch; if they did it for this long they could do it for longer.
A prorated look at the Western Conference standings
An obvious point to be raised against the Flames’ playoff chances is that, even though they are very near a wild card spot, they have played more games than most teams. Here is a look at the Western Conference wild card standings if each team had played an equal number of games (47 as has Colorado) based on their current points percentage, as well as the points they would have over the full 82-game season if they held to that points percentage.
Pacific
| Rank | Team | Points | Points Percentage | End-of-season Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VAN | 67 | 0.717 | 118 |
| 2 | VGK | 60 | 0.641 | 105 |
| 3 | EDM | 59 | 0.631 | 103 |
Central
| Rank | Team | Points | Points Percentage | End-of-season Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WPG | 68 | 0.727 | 119 |
| 2 | COL | 63 | 0.670 | 110 |
| 3 | DAL | 62 | 0.656 | 108 |
Wild card
| Rank | Team | Points | Points Percentage | End-of-season Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAK | 57 | 0.605 | 99 |
| 2 | NSH | 53 | 0.565 | 93 |
| 3 | ARI | 50 | 0.534 | 88 |
| 4 | SEA | 49 | 0.522 | 86 |
| 5 | CGY | 48 | 0.511 | 84 |
| 6 | STL | 49 | 0.523 | 86 |
| 7 | MIN | 46 | 0.489 | 80 |
| 8 | ANA | 32 | 0.344 | 56 |
| 9 | CHI | 31 | 0.326 | 53 |
| 10 | SJS | 27 | 0.283 | 46 |
All else being equal the Flames would need better than a .565 p% in order to make the playoffs.
Some sobering negatives
Let’s start with a bit of a good news bad news situation. Good news first naturally. According to Tankathon.com, the Flames have the ninth easiest schedule awaiting them in the second half of the season. The bad news is that L.A. has the easiest, Nashville the fifth, Seattle the sixth, and St. Louis the seventh. So the Flames, while having a relatively easy schedule, have the toughest (except for Arizona) schedule of the teams that they need to fend off.
Further, the Flames’ power play is arguably the worst part of their game and is 29th in the league—an abysmal 13.8%, BLECH!! The power play was better during the hot streak but was still only 16.7% and 22nd in the league. Plain and simple, that is not good enough.
In the end, the most persuasive argument as to why the Flames can’t make the playoffs is that the hot streak that has allowed us to entertain playoff hopes seems unlikely to continue. Every team in the show goes through ups and downs throughout the season (unless you’re the 2022–23 Boston Bruins in which case you can simply exchange a record-breaking regular season for the feeling of shaving a playoff beard that hasn’t seen its first paycheque). The encouraging stats and scenarios I quoted in the pros section above are almost entirely based on the 14-game stretch in which the Flames played so well. If they can’t keep relatively close to those stats, they will fall into true mediocrity.
A look at the wild card race
The Los Angeles Kings currently lead the wild card race in the West. If I’m being perfectly honest, I can’t really see the Flames passing L.A. for good, they are fast and deep and rest on solid goaltending. Even through L.A.’s lengthy slump, Cam Talbot and David Rittich are posting some impressive numbers. You never know though, it is possible they can’t get the season back between the lines and the wild card parking lot gains another space.
As of right now, it looks like Nashville is the main team the Flames need to be better than. The Predators are a solid team but Juuse Saros has played 36 of 46 games so far this year—second most in the NHL. If he continues at this pace his game is likely to fall off.
The Seattle Kraken do look very fast and hard-working; however, they are also relying heavily on goaltender Joey Daccord who is seeing his first season of serious ice time and who has not put up good numbers in his admittedly small sample size of games.
Lastly, the Arizona Coyotes are surprising this year and are a team I expect to be impressive in years to come, under the same name or otherwise. As of right now, though, they are young, relying on the play of one goaltender, and looking at a difficult second-half schedule in the face.
How Calgary stacks up
I could easily see all of these teams, with the possible exception of L.A., falling off in the tail end of the season whereas I believe the Flames, with their mix of youth and experience, an excellent goalie with a solid backup, and scoring depth, are capable of playing the .565 hockey; which is only a .055 increase to where they are now and is well under the .714 p% they posted over the 14-game stretch.
If they can just split the difference between their current 0.511 clip and the .714 rate they will sneak into the first or second wild card spot. Whether or not the fans want that is another question entirely.
Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire
