With the 2023–24 NHL season officially at the halfway mark and the 2024 All-Star break on the horizon, it’s fair to start making some conclusions about players in fantasy. No longer are players experiencing hot or cold starts. At this point in the season as the fantasy playoff push ramps up, players who haven’t lived up to expectations are officially in bust territory.
Every season there are a handful of players who are hyped up going into the year, drafted high, and then produce well below their ADP. This year is of course no different even if there are no mega 2022–23 Jonathan Huberdeau-level busts this season. Here are some of the biggest fantasy disappointments at the halfway mark of the season. Goaltenders are voodoo, so I’ll omit them from this list.
Timo Meier – N.J. Devils – F
ADP: 40 | Current Rank: 307
Even after a disappointing playoff run in New Jersey last year, most expected Timo Meier to settle in this season alongside Jack Hughes in the juggernaut Devils offence. Coming off a 40-goal, 66-point season it seemed like Meier was a lock for a big year. As such he was being drafted right around the fourth round with an ADP of 40, and as the 29th forward off the board.
Fast forward a few months and Meier currently sits with just nine goals and 15 points in 28 games. Injuries aside, even when he’s healthy he’s been ineffective most nights as his offence has seemingly disappeared. He’s also currently averaging under three shots a game after putting up over four a game just last year and he doesn’t provide much in the way of hits or blocks. Unless he has a giant bounce-back second half, he’s set to be arguably the biggest bust of the year.
Pierre-Luc Dubois – L.A. Kings – F
ADP: 89 | Current Rank: 339
With a big move in the offseason to the rising L.A. Kings after a career year in 2022–23, big things were expected of Pierre-Luc Dubois this season. It’s easy to forget he put up 63 points in 73 games last year. Unfortunately, things have been downhill ever since for the 25-year-old. With 38 games under his belt, Dubois is sitting with just seven goals and 16 points. He’s currently on track for just 15 goals and 34 points, both of which would be the lowest full-season totals of his entire career.
As it stands, he ranks outside the top 250 skaters for points, and outside the top 200 for goals. He’s also on track for only 151 shots after putting up over 200 in the last two seasons. It’s not like it was just a slow start on his new team either, as he’s currently riding a seven-game pointless streak. Dubois’ ownership in Yahoo! has dropped to nearly 40% and continues to fall.
Trevor Zegras – Anaheim Ducks – F
ADP: 146 | Current rank: 591
To be fair to Trevor Zegras, he’s dealt with a couple of unfortunate injuries this season. Still, that doesn’t eliminate the fact that in the 20 games he’s played he’s posted just four goals and seven points. That’s an 82-game pace of 16 goals and 29 points. After putting up a career-high 65 points last year on a dreadful Ducks roster, there was hope that Zegras may finally move into point-per-game territory this year on a supposedly improved Ducks roster.
Instead, he’s currently on track for the worst full season of his career and may even be on the trade block. It’s hard to understand how and why Zegras’ offence has completely evaporated this year. It’s not like a poor supporting cast is to blame as Zegras ranks 10th among all Ducks for points per game. He’s gone from a potential breakout candidate at the beginning of the season to drop-able just a few months later.
Andrei Kuzmenko – Vancouver Canucks – F
ADP: 105 | Current rank: 336
Given where the Canucks currently rank first in the entire NHL for goals per game, this one has to sting for any Andrei Kuzmenko drafters. After finishing last year as the sleeper of the year, Kuzmenko is on track to be one of the biggest busts of 2023–24 despite the Canucks success. A reminder that Kuzmenko was dominant in his first NHL season last year, putting up 39 goals and 74 points.
This season has been a completely different story though. Kuzmenko has registered just eight goals and 19 points in 36 games and is on pace for essentially half of his production from last season with only 17 goals and 41 points. On top of that, he’s found himself watching from the press box on multiple occasions this year and is averaging nearly two minutes less per game than he did last year. He’s currently just 51% owned and hasn’t had a point since December 23.
Johnny Gaudreau – Columbus Blue Jackets – F
ADP: 90 | Current Rank: 202
Despite a disappointing albeit okay first season in Columbus last year with 74 points, Johnny Gaudreau has gone in the opposite direction than most people expected in 2023–24. Any optimism around a big bounce-back year is completely gone. He currently has just seven goals and 25 points through 42 games, a pace of 14 goals and 49 points. Both would be career lows by a wide margin for the former 115-point man.
At an ADP of 90 and only two years removed from his monster 115-point season, it seemed like Gaudreau could potentially provide massive value to anyone who took a gamble on him. Instead, he’s turned into a big-time bust and is barely rosterable at this point amid the worst season of his career.
Erik Karlsson – Pittsburgh Penguins – D
ADP: 38 | Current Rank: 124
Erik Karlsson was never going to live up to his historic 101-point season from last year, but after making a move to the Penguins in the offseason it was expected he would remain an elite fantasy option from the blueline. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened as his production has fallen off this year. After being drafted as the third defenceman off the board behind only Cale Makar and Adam Fox, Karlsson currently ranks 12th among defencemen for points and 22nd for goals.
The thought of a power play featuring Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin and Karlsson seemed like a dream situation, but instead, Karlsson has only nine points on the power play this year, the 23rd most among defencemen. His current pace of 59 points would represent a gigantic 42-point drop-off from last year. He’s not having a terrible year by any means, but after last year’s point totals and a move to a much better team, a pace of under 60 points is incredibly disappointing for the third-ranked defenceman in drafts.
Players in search of fantasy value
It’s always hard to let go of these types of players as they all have the capability to bounce back for stronger second halves, especially if the sense is that the only direction they can go is up. But, in fantasy hockey, exercising too much patience can prove costly.
