The Calgary Flames’ second quarter of the 2023–24 season was more of the same, as the team experienced both winning streaks and losing streaks and finished the quarter right in the mushy middle of the NHL standings.
After each quarter mark of the season,I will assign a letter grade from A to F to each Flames player who logged over 100 minutes TOI in the quarter. These grades will take into consideration the 21 games between November 25 and January 9. The Flames went a very mediocre 10–9–2 this quarter, gaining 22 of a possible 42 points. Entering the second half of the season they rank 24th in the NHL, sixth in the Pacific division, and two points out of a wild card spot with four more games played.
As a team, the Flames finished the quarter 14th for CF%, 19th for xGF% and 18th for HDCF%.
How do TWC’s POET rankings work?
A reminder that these rankings are based on a model that evaluates 5v5 play. In order to grade players, we will be using the TWC Player Offensive Evaluation Tool (POET).
The model operates similarly to the power rankings model we update on a weekly basis. The player model takes specific on-ice statistics including CF% at various danger levels, xGF%; individual statistics including goals, assists, offensive contributions, and penalty differentials; and includes an adjustment for time on ice, PDO, and offensive zone starts.
Each player’s statistics are put through the model and combined to produce an overall TWCScore. These scores are then compared to the rest of the league to determine what letter grade they fall into. If their TWC score is above 0 on their player cards then they are above average compared to all other players of the same position (forwards or defencemen).
It is important to note that the model is based on player performance at 5v5. This is not meant to diminish the efforts of the Flames’ work on special teams but to be more representative of a player’s form against equal opposition. Only players with over 100 minutes at 5v5 were given grades. Let’s see who ranks where on the Flames squad.
All numbers are 5v5 score- and venue-adjusted (SVA) courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.com.
Forwards
A+
Nazem Kadri
Nazem Kadri continued his strong season with the best quarter among Flames forwards. Through 21 games in the quarter, Kadri led the team in 5v5 goals with six, and 5v5 points with 14. He also generated the most shots and iCF at 5v5 as well.
His underlying numbers were also strong. He finished fourth for CF%, first for xGF%, and third for HDCF% among Flames forwards. Kadri was arguably the Flames’ MVP at forward in the second quarter and it’s a shame he wasn’t selected as their all-star representative.
B+
Blake Coleman
After a strong second quarter, Blake Coleman is tied for the team lead in points at the halfway mark of the season. He finished second behind only Kadri with 12 points at 5v5 and led the team with nine 5v5 assists this quarter. He also generated the second most shots at 5v5 behind only Kadri.
His underlying numbers were just a tad behind Kadri though. His CF% ranked fifth, his xGF% was sixth, and his HDCF% was second among Flames forwards. All said, Coleman has come out of nowhere to be a key offensive contributor for this team.
Mikael Backlund
Mikael Backlund was doing Mikael Backlund things in the second quarter as he became the second longest-tenured player in franchise history. Backlund posted eight points at 5v5, the fourth-highest total among Flames forwards. As well, his 20 iHDCF in the quarter were second most on the team.
He also finished second for CF%, fourth for xGF%, and tops for HDCF%. Time is just a construct to Backlund as he continues to chug along as a key player for the Flames at 5v5.
B
Connor Zary
Connor Zary continued his strong rookie season in the second quarter, finishing third for points at 5v5 with nine, and second for goals at 5v5 with five. All this despite registering just 18 shots at 5v5.
He’s also stayed above water at even strength, an impressive feat for a rookie. In the second quarter, he ranked sixth for CF%, third for xGF%, and eighth for HDCF% among Flames forwards. Zary continues to be a breath of fresh air in Calgary.
Jonathan Huberdeau
Jonathan Huberdeau continued to underwhelm in the second quarter, but his start to 2024 offered some optimism. He finished the quarter with seven points at 5v5, tied for fifth among Flames forwards. He also led the team in primary assists at 5v5 with five.
He also put up some decent underlying results, finishing the quarter third for CF%, seventh for xGF%, and fifth for HDCF%. The Flames still need so much more from Huberdeau, but at least this quarter was a step in the right direction.
C+
Yegor Sharangovich
Yegor Sharangovich had an interesting second quarter. His offence, and in particular goal scoring was strong but his underlying numbers were among the worst on the team. His five 5v5 goals were second on the team at least, and his seven 5v5 points were tied for fifth.
That said he ranked second last for CF%, xGF% and HDCF%. Despite his offence coming around, he regularly got caved in at 5v5 which tanked his grade and overall impact.
C
Andrew Mangiapane
Andrew Mangiapane’s second quarter was a tale of two halves. After he was reunited with Backlund and Coleman he bounced back from a brutal start to the quarter. He posted seven points at 5v5, tied for fifth most among Flames forwards, with four of them coming in the final eight games of the quarter. He also led the Flames with 21 iHDCF.
His underlying numbers were pretty ugly though, mostly due to his rough play on the top line. He finished 10th for CF%, eighth for xGF%, and fourth for HDCF%. The main lesson from the second quarter is to never separate a child from his parents.
D+
A.J. Greer
A.J. Greer continued to be a mainstay on the Flames’ fourth line in the second quarter, offering pretty much exactly the type of offensive output you’d expect from a waiver claim. He posted two points at 5v5, both goals, ranking 10th for points among Flames forwards.
His underlying numbers were average at best, ranking seventh for CF%, fifth for xGF%, and ninth for HDCF%. For a fourth liner, you shouldn’t be expecting much more.
D
Elias Lindholm
Was Elias Lindholm turning down a supposed eight-year $9 million AAV extension the biggest bag fumble of all time? The Flames top line centre had a horrific second quarter, grading out as the team’s third worst forward as his value continues to decline.
Lindholm finished the quarter with seven points at 5v5, and just one goal. He also added only 10 iHDCF, the third-worst total among Flames forwards. On top of that, he got absolutely crushed at 5v5. He finished the quarter last among Flames forwards for CF%, xGF%, and HDCF%. Could the third quarter be his last as a Flame?
Martin Pospisil
Martin Pospisil’s scoring really slowed down in the second quarter which ruined his grade, but his underlying results remained strong at 5v5. He finished tops among Flames forwards for CF%, was second for xGF%, and sixth for HDCF%.
In terms of production, he registered just five points at 5v5, including only one goal. However he did put up 25 shots at 5v5. Pospisil was never going to keep up his scoring pace from the first quarter, but it’s nice that his underlying impacts remain strong.
D-
Adam Ruzicka
Adam Ruzicka is running out of time to prove he should be part of the Flames’ future as he didn’t do much of anything this quarter. Ruzicka posted just one single point in the quarter at 5v5 across the 19 games he played. He also added just nine shots at 5v5.
His underlying numbers weren’t any better. He ranked eighth for CF%, 10th for xGF%, and seventh for HDCF%. Ruzicka may lose his lineup spot permanently with Jakob Pelletier returning soon.
F
Dillon Dube
Where do we even begin with Dillon Dube? Dube’s disastrous second quarter built on his already poor first quarter. He was quite literally a black hole offensively. He was the only forward on the team to register 0 points at 5v5 in the quarter, and only provided 18 shots at 5v5.
He ranked ninth for CF% and xGF%, and 10th for HDCF%. His quarter concluded with him watching from the press box on Tuesday night, signifying just how bad things went for the 25-year-old in the second quarter.
Defencemen
A
MacKenzie Weegar
For the second quarter in a row, MacKenzie Weegar finishes as the Flames’ highest graded defenceman. Weegar finished tops among Flames blueliners for goals at 5v5 with four and shots with 38. He was also second for points with seven.
His underlying impacts were solid considering the minutes he plays, and a step above his fellow top-four blueliners. He finished third for CF%, fourth for xGF%, and second for HDCF%. Weegar’s second quarter reaffirmed that he is the team’s best offensive weapon from the blueline.
A-
Noah Hanifin
Noah Hanifin did a solid job this quarter of either upping his trade value or adding some extra money to his next contract in Calgary. He led all Flames defenders with eight points at 5v5, including three primary assists. His three 5v5 goals ranked second behind only Weegar.
His possession numbers weren’t great though. He ranked sixth for CF%, third for xGF%, and fourth for HDCF%. Overall though, a solid quarter for Hanifin as we get closer to the trade deadline.
B+
Rasmus Andersson
Rasmus Andersson picked up his offensive game this quarter, registering six points at 5v5 including a pair of goals. Both totals ranked third on the Flames blueline. He also generated the second most shots at 5v5 behind only Weegar with 35, and the most iHDCF with five.
As expected, like most of the team’s top-four, his underlying numbers were weak. He finished fifth for CF%, last for xGF%, and sixth for HDCF%. A decent albeit unspectacular quarter from Andersson.
C+
Nick DeSimone
After Andersson, there’s a big drop off in offensive impact as Nick DeSimone grades out as the team’s next best defenceman despite playing in just 11 games. He finished the quarter with a single point at 5v5, and only 11 shots.
His underlying impacts were surprisingly okay. He finished second for CF%, fifth for xGF%, and last for HDCF%. All said, about what you’d expect from a number six defenceman.
C-
Dennis Gilbert
Dennis Gilbert had some surprising offensive production in the second quarter, although it was mostly empty calories. He posted six points at 5v5, tied for third among Flames blueliners, but five of them were secondary assists. He also only managed 13 shots at 5v5 across 206 minutes.
He did however have some decent underlying numbers. He finished fourth for CF%, second for xGF%, and third for HDCF%. Like DeSimone, it’s unreasonable to expect anything more from Gilbert.
D-
Chris Tanev
Chris Tanev is a defensive defenceman. As such, his offensive impacts were the worst on the team among blueliners. He finished with two points at 5v5 across 282 minutes of ice time, adding just 12 shots.
He also posted some uncharacteristically poor underlying metrics, finishing last for CF%, sixth for xGF%, and fifth for HDCF%. With Tanev potentially on the trade block, the next quarter could be his last as a Flame.
A wild third quarter awaits
The Flames followed up their mediocre first quarter with an even more mediocre second quarter, as they failed to solidify the future direction of the team. With the team sitting on the cusp of the playoffs or a top-five draft pick at the same time, the next 20-game stretch leading up to the trade deadline is sure to be a wild one in Calgary.
Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire
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