We have now reached the midway mark of the 2023–24 season. The Calgary Flames hold a record of 18–18–5, for a points percentage of 0.500. That equates to 41 points in 41 games. With a record like that, you would think the Flames are pretty much eliminated from playoff contention. While that will be the likely case at season’s end, they still have “a chance.”
The Western Conference sees some really good teams, but also a lot of mediocre teams. Currently, here is the playoff race:
I’ve included the Los Angeles Kings in there because the Edmonton Oilers are surging. I could definitely see them passing the Kings by year’s end.
As we can see, there are a lot of teams hanging around the playoff mix. If Calgary wants to make the playoffs, they have to pass a lot of teams. It’s not impossible, but as we look into various playoff models below, the math isn’t on their side. A key thing to note is that these are models. Games are obviously played for a reason, and you can never be sure whether a team will win or lose a game on a given night. Take the Flames losing to the Rockford Ice Hogs on Sunday.
Comparing Calgary Flames playoff odds from various sources
MoneyPuck.com
MoneyPuck.com currently has the Flames playoff chances at 15.9%.
The Athletic
The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn projects the Flames playoff chances at 23%, with a projected finish of 89 points, and drafting 14th overall. Sounds about Flamesy.
Evolving-Hockey
Evolving-Hockey.com is the highest on the Flames, by far, with odds of 57.5% of making the playoffs. However, that projection still has them missing by 0.8 points in favour of the Seattle Kraken. Wouldn’t that be something?
LeftWingLock
LeftWingLock.com has the Flames at 23.46%.
HockeyViz
HockeyViz.com projects the Flames at 24.7%.
Hockey-Reference
Hockey-Reference.com has the Flames playoff chances at 19.0%.
Playoff Status
PlayoffStatus.com projects the Flames at 20% to make the playoffs.
Looking at the average of all of these models
We looked at seven playoff models. By taking the average of these seven models, we can get the most accurate weighting possible. In doing that, the Calgary Flames playoff chances sit at 26.22%. If the Flames do end up making it, remember that Evolving-Hockey was the highest on their chances. If you remove the Evolving-Hockey model, the Flames chances from the other six models all fall between 15.9 and 24.7%. That sounds like the right threshold, and it’s notable that six out of the seven models are so close. That’s probably a good indication that the Flames won’t make it.
There is a lot of hockey to be played, but the playoff chance math isn’t on the Flames side.
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