Just shy of the midway point of the season, the Calgary Flames sit two points out of a wild card spot. The downside? They are 25th in the NHL and have played four more games than the Edmonton Oilers who currently hold the second wild card spot in the NHL’s Western Conference, and three teams—all of whom have more points and fewer games played than the Flames—stand between the Flames and Oilers.
The hot topic leading up to the March 8 trade deadline is what the Flames will do with their pending unrestricted free agents. Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev, and Oliver Kylington are all pending UFAs, but today I wanted to look at what the Flames should do with goaltender Jacob Markstrom, provided he is willing to waive his no-movement clause.
In addition to Markstrom holding the cards on his future, trading him would signify commitment to a direction—something the team has managed to delay so far.
Markstrom has been one of the best Flames this season
Markstrom—who turns 34 years old at the end of this month—has been the Flames’ unquestioned starting goaltender since he was signed as a free agent in 2020. He has retained that title this year, while being one of the few bright spots on the team.
Despite a losing record so far, the numbers show that he’s arguably in the midst of his second-best season as a Flame, posting a 0.908 save percentage and 2.67 goals against average. Among the 28 NHL goalies who have played 20 or more games this season, Markstrom’s 0.908 save percentage is tied for 11th, and his 2.67 GAA is 10th.
Looking at the Flames’ goalies’ numbers at all strengths, Markstrom is the one who is giving his team the best chance to win games. Take a look at the below stats from NaturalStatTrick.
| GOALIE | SV% | GAA | GSAA | HDSV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar | 0.883 | 3.42 | -7.42 | 0.759 |
| Dustin Wolf | 0.893 | 3.46 | -1.55 | 0.688 |
| Jacob Markstrom | 0.908 | 2.67 | 3.48 | 0.861 |
Why the Flames should keep Markstrom
After the retirement of Miikka Kiprusoff in 2013 (we still miss him), the Flames endured seven seasons of instability between the pipes. Karri Ramo, Jonas Hiller, Brian Elliott, Mike Smith, and David Rittich were all tasked with backstopping the team, but none were able to be “the guy” for back-to-back seasons. The signing of Markstrom marked the first time since Kiprusoff left that the Flames had stability in goal.
All this to say that it’s not easy to find good goaltending, and the Flames have that in Markstrom. With the team still in the playoff mix, if ownership and management want to push for playoffs, Markstrom is the guy to turn to. He’s signed for two more years after this one at a manageable $6,000,000 cap hit, so keeping him would also keep the Flames’ window to compete open longer.
The Flames have a top goaltending prospect waiting in the wings in Dustin Wolf. Wolf has already gotten his feet wet at the NHL level, and could learn a lot more from a goalie like Markstrom—a veteran of 460 NHL games—than he would from the less experienced Daniel Vladar (68 NHL games). Markstrom could also help shelter Wolf in the unlikely event that the Flames opt to rebuild.
I know we all want to see more of Wolf now, but keeping Markstrom in the fold allows Wolf to develop at his own pace. How sweet would it be to see Markstrom pass Wolf the starting goalie torch in a year or two?
Why the Flames should trade Markstrom
As mentioned, Markstrom will turn 34 years old before the trade deadline. History has shown us that goalies tend to decline—sometimes sharply—in their mid-thirties. We don’t need to look any further than Kiprusoff for an example. After one of the best seasons of his career as a 35-year-old in 2011–12 (he finished seventh in Vezina voting), Kipper’s play fell off a cliff in 2012–13 and he retired before the next season.
Markstrom has been good on a not-so-good Flames team this year. Given his age, it’s very likely that his trade value will not get much higher at this point.
With Wolf pushing for an NHL job, the Flames are starting to have something of a logjam in goal. If Wolf is ready to be a full-time NHLer—and it doesn’t seem like he’s far off with how well he’s played in the AHL—one of Markstrom or Vladar needs to go as both are signed for at least one more year. The more likely scenario is that Vladar is the one to be dealt. Markstrom would fetch a much better return though as he’s the more likely of the two to help a team go on a deep playoff run.
The Flames have seven players on their roster right now that are pending UFAs. If the team decides to commit to a rebuild as many fans are clamouring for, Markstrom would be an additional valuable trade chip to help kickstart that rebuild. Trading Markstrom would all but guarantee that the team is rebuilding, and most (if not all) of their UFAs would be in play. This would give the Flames their best opportunity to acquire young talent and prepare for the future.
If the team decides to rebuild now, adding top prospects through trades and the draft will create even more excitement when they start playing in their new arena in a few years. There really doesn’t seem like a more perfect time to rebuild!
There is a market for goaltenders
The New Jersey Devils are a team on the rise that has had to rely on shaky goaltending. After missing the playoffs for four straight years, the Devils returned to the playoffs last season and advanced to the second round. So far this year, they hold the second wild card in the Eastern Conference despite allowing the sixth-most goals in the league.
The Devils need some stability in goal, and Markstrom can provide that. A trade may require some salary cap finessing, but the Devils certainly have the assets to make such a deal.
The Colorado Avalanche have seemingly been in the market for a goalie forever, and this year is no exception. They’re fifth in the NHL, but only two teams who currently occupy a playoff position have allowed more goals, and both are in the Eastern Conference. If the Avalanche want to get through the gruelling Western Conference, they’ll need to upgrade on Alexandar Georgiev in goal.
Per CapFriendly, the Avalanche currently have $5,600,000 cap space. Including Georgiev in a deal for Markstrom should make the cap work. The Avalanche also have most of their picks as well as some enticing prospects like Calum Ritchie, Mikhail Gulyayev, and Sean Behrens that they can use to seal the deal.
Other teams like the Oilers, Carolina Hurricanes, and maybe even the Toronto Maple Leafs and Nashville Predators could also look to shore up their goaltending.
There is a low likelihood of a Markstrom trade happening
The chances we see Markstrom traded out of Calgary are very low. As I said, a Markstrom trade signifies that the team is rebuilding, and that’s something that ownership has not been willing to commit to up until this point. Even if ownership listens to the fans, Markstrom has a no-movement clause and could nix a trade entirely. Too many things need to align for Markstrom to be traded, but only time will tell.
Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire
