From the beginning of the season, there has been speculation and talk regarding Calgary Flames defenceman Noah Hanifin, particularly the situation around his contract extension. With a contract that was ruled to be completed just after the season kicked off, after the Flames poor start, all of those extension talks were put on hold. That was until Saturday night, when Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported on Saturday Night Headlines that the Flames and Hanifin were talking about a contract once again.
That has begged the question around the team and the city: Would the Flames be better off extending Hanifin, or would they be better off moving the player for future assets?
The timeline on Hanifin’s negotiations
Before we get into whether Hanifin’s extension is a good or bad idea for the Flames, let’s take a look at everything that has happened leading up to this point in time.
Let’s take a trip back to locker cleanup day last year, while there were a few players who didn’t want to comment on staying with the Flames or not, Hanifin was vocal about staying a Flame, something that maybe many did not expect for him to say.
We didn’t hear any news on Hanifin until the draft, then everything broke loose. The Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravelli was dropping bombs on the lead-up to the draft and one name he mentioned was Hanifin’s. He stated that Hanifin would prefer to play in the States and that he wouldn’t entertain an extension in Calgary.
Now we go to the beginning of this season, a press conference was supposed to be scheduled with Hanifin and General Manager Craig Conroy, but that never happened. Speculation was that the Flames were going to announce an extension with Hanifin in the area of the contract that Colorado Avalanche defenceman Devon Toews signed not too long before. Soon after, the Flames would call off all contract talks after being embarrassed in the Heritage Classic by their rival.
That brings us to today, where it looks like both sides are trying to agree on a new deal.
The case for signing Hanifin
If the Flames were to extend Hanifin, I personally do not think it would be the end of the world for them. When you look at all the players that will be free agents at the year’s end, if you had to sign one of them, the one that I think everyone would lean toward would be Hanifin. He is going to be turning 27 at the end of the month, so this is not a situation where he is already in his thirties and his best hockey is probably behind him, this is a player who is right in the midst of his prime years in the NHL.
Players like Hanifin are not easy to find either. He can skate, he can defend, he can eat a ton of minutes, he is a good offensive driver, and you can rely on him in almost any situation. He has really come into his own since the 2020–21 bubble season after being a mess for the couple of years he had prior and he has become a very important piece of the Flames blueline.
Whether you are under the belief that is all because of Chris Tanev or not (Tanev has played a massive role in Hanifin’s development), Hanifin has become a very good top-four defenceman, and replacing him in the future would be difficult to do.
If the Flames do go into a rebuild or retool, you need guys that can be there when you finally come out of it, I think Hanifin is a player that will age well, and I just can’t see a massive falloff coming anytime soon.
The case for trading Hanifin
Now, why should the Flames consider moving Hanifin as opposed to signing him long-term? Well, the Flames need to pick a direction in where they want to go, the way the team is being operated right now seems like they are just making decisions on a week-to-week basis instead of figuring out a long-term plan. One week it’s: “Let’s compete we are good enough” and another it’s: “We have to tear it down and trade guys, we aren’t good enough.” That is the issue plaguing the Flames, they don’t know what they want to be.
Onto the player though, like I mentioned above, Hanifin has turned into a good player for this Flames team, and that can actually be an issue. The team is stuck in limbo, they are not bad enough to bottom out and get a top-five pick, but they are also not good enough to go far into the playoffs if they were to get there. They are in the worst spot you can possibly be if you are a professional sports team—they are just mediocre. Signing Hanifin to a long-term deal would push that forward. Sure, they might move out some guys between now and the trade deadline, but they still won’t be a basement dweller or a contender. They would be right on pace to pick at spot #16 in the draft.
The AAV is also a big part of Hanifin’s new deal, the rumoured amount back near the beginning of the season was around $7–7.5 million a year on a seven- or eight-year deal. That is elite defenceman money. While Hanifin is a good player, he is not an elite number one. He is not a game changer or a game breaker on the backend like a Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Adam Fox or Miro Heiskanen, and that is what they would be paying him like.
I believe anything more than MacKenzie Weegar’s $6.25 million AAV would be a massive mistake for the organization to make. They already have lots of money tied up in a lot of veteran players, and they are going to need the cap space for when guys like Connor Zary, Yegor Sharangovich (and to a lesser extent), Jakob Pelletier and Matt Coronato are all due up for extensions.
Lastly, the possible return you can get for Hanifin may be too good to pass up. Hampus Lindholm was moved from Anaheim to Boston a couple of years ago for Urho Vaakanainen, a first-round pick and two second-round picks. While yes, you have to hit on those picks, that is something the Flames haven’t had in a while—a lot of picks for a draft. Now would you rather have Hanifin or a young player a bunch of picks? I believe the Flames need the young players and picks right now in hopes of growing their own new Hanifin as opposed to keeping him.
What is the most likely outcome?
At the end of all of this, for better or for worse, I think this saga ends with Hanifin extending in Calgary. The extension was basically done just a few months ago, the player has been vocal about staying, and management clearly wants to keep this player.
Whether that would be the right play or not, only time will tell if it becomes the right decision or the wrong decision in the long run, and we will all just have to wait to see how this all plays out.
Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire
