When signing a six-year deal with the Calgary Flames in free agency in 2021, Blake Coleman was expected to come in and fill a third-line role. Well, that’s exactly what he’s done. What usually flies under the radar is just how perfectly he plays his role. Because of this, Coleman has become an underrated piece to the Flames.
Coleman is a heart and soul kind of guy
Blake Coleman is the type of player to leave his all out on the ice. It doesn’t matter if he’s winning or losing, he gives 100% every shift. He plays a hard-working style, generating positive results at both ends of the ice. He and Mikael Backlund mesh well together creating a third line that can not only produce on offence but also shut down the opposing team. This style of play usually bodes well for both those viewing the game and the spreadsheet after it.
Coleman is currently on a six-game point streak where he has posted three goals and eight points. This has helped him reach second on the team in scoring only behind Nazem Kadri by a single point. His bnine goals, 12 assists, and 21 points in 31 games have him on pace to set career highs in all categories. Across 82 games if he keeps his pace, Coleman will finish with 24 goals and 31 assists for 55 points which breaks his previous career bests by 2 more goals, 11 more assists, and a whopping 15 more points. He also leads the Flames in some interesting stats such as game-winning goals and shorthanded goals.
Coleman’s numbers
With a guy like Coleman, his underlying numbers are typically very good. Models love players who not only forecheck and generate offence but can also shut down the opposing team’s attack.
Here’s how Coleman stacks up against the other Flames forwards who have played 200+ 5v5 minutes this season. All stats via NaturalStatTrick.com at 5v5 score- and venue-adjusted.
| Metric | CF% | xG% | SCF% | HDCF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Coleman | 54.65 | 54.23 | 52.91 | 50.77 |
| Team Rank | 2nd | 4th | 3rd | 6thh |
Coleman makes his way into the top half for every single metric. He’s in the top three for half of them. Only one player places ahead of him consistently in every category and that’s Martin Pospisil as he leads every single one. When we take that into consideration, we could say Coleman is the second most consistent player on the Flames analytically which is a pretty solid feat.
Models paint the same positive story of Coleman
Using charts from HockeyViz.com, we’ll be looking at Coleman’s isolated and with/without impacts.
Isolated Impact
Starting with his isolated impact, Coleman posts positive results throughout the chart. First off is his offensive impact. Coleman has posted a +7% score placing higher in league-wide terms. There’s a big area of the zone being covered in red. These are some more dangerous areas which is another positive. Coleman seems to be generating offence around the net and in the high slot.
Secondly, his defensive impact, despite not being as great as previous is still good. A score of -2% will place him above the league average, highlighting him as a solid defensive once again. There are no real standout areas unlike the offensive end, but it is kind of funny how both sides of the net are complete opposites.
Finally, his sG score (similar to WAR), sits at +3.8. For a third liner, this is fantastic as it is a score that you would mostly find for a player of first-line impact. The majority of this positive score comes from his two-way play with the offensive and defensive results giving +3.2 and +1.1 respectively. The biggest negative seems to be his finishing, giving his sG a -1.1 score.
With and Without
When it comes to the Flames’ 5v5 offence and defence with and without Coleman, it reads similarly to his isolated impact but to a stronger extent. With Coleman, you can see that the Flames’ offence has gone from a score of -8% to +8%, a complete change in signs. The positive jump of 16% is impressive considering you only see it with smaller sample sizes and top analytical players. The xGF/60 goes from 2.45 to 2.88, roughly 0.45 of a goal per 60 minutes of playing, pretty good. Around the net and the high slot still both have great results along with the addition of the right circle and bottom of the left.
Defensively, the Flames are still better with than without Coleman, just not to the same stretch offensively. The defensive score goes from -2% to -4%, so only a change of -2% which is solid. Looking at the two charts, it may look like the Flames should have a worse score without Coleman based on all the red, but most of that is saved by the decently sized pool of blue between the circles. With Coleman, offence from the opposing team seems to be rarely generated from around the net, the high slot, and almost a whole stretch across just below the middle of the zone.
When it comes down to where Coleman makes the biggest impact, it might be the penalty kill. With Coleman out on the ice when killing a penalty, the Flames go from an abysmal score of +31% to a solid score of -2%. The difference between the two is -33% which is mind-blowing. A quick look at the xGA/60 and it goes from 9.62 to 7.15, a change of around 2.5 goals per 60 minutes. There’s also a considerably smaller amount of offence being generated by the opposing team in some more dangerous areas.
Blake Coleman deserves more appreciation
Ever since coming to Calgary, Coleman has served his role to perfection. He’s continued his hard-working game and has been a part of a great two-way duo with Mikael Backlund. For most seasons, you’d have to look at a chart or pay closer attention to games to realize Coleman’s greater impacts. So far this season, you can notice that by the number of points he’s producing. The increase in production has helped keep Coleman as an analytical darling. Blake Coleman continues to show that he is the perfect third liner for any hockey team.
Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire
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