On a Calgary Flames team with so many pending unrestricted free agents this season, the biggest name on the list is first line centre Elias Lindholm. The Flames and Lindholm were unable to agree on a contract extension this summer after Lindholm’s camp reportedly asked for a long-term deal with an average annual value of $9 million.
At the time, the Flames were seemingly unwilling to give Lindholm that kind of coin, and with the way he’s played so far this season, it would appear that Craig Conroy and co. were correct.
Through 29 games, over 35% of the season, Elias Lindholm is by far one of the worst-performing 1Cs in the entire NHL.
Elias Lindholm’s struggling compared to other centremen
I went through each team’s roster and isolated the stats of their 1Cs. Due to injuries, really bad teams, etc. there were some liberties that had to be taken. Here are the notes on the data set. It’s important to note that none of these decisions made a marked difference in the outcome for Lindholm.
- J.T. Miller has played more minutes than Elias Pettersson this season, but Pettersson was chosen as the Vancouver Canucks’ 1C
- Due to the injury to Tage Thompson, Casey Mittelstadt is the Buffalo Sabres’ 1C
- Boone Jenner is the 1C for the Columbus Blue Jackets despite Adam Fantilli skating in that role most recently
- Vincent Trocheck is the New York Rangers’ 1C over Mike Zibanejad. This is because Trocheck is centring Artemi Panarin, and has more TOI than Zibanejad overall.
- Leon Draisaitl has more total TOI than Connor McDavid this year so far, but McDavid is, of course, the Oilers’ 1C
- Alexander Wennberg has more TOI than Matty Beniers, but Beniers is the Seattle Kraken’s 1C
- Josh Norris is currently centring Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux, but due to his early season injury, Tim Stutzle has been more of a 1C this year for the Ottawa Senators
- Andrew Copp has the most TOI among centers for the Detroit Red Wings this year, but Dylan Larkin is their 1C
- For the Boston Bruins, it was a toss-up between Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle; Zacha was chosen as the 1C due to his most common linemates
- Wyatt Johnston has the most TOI among centers for the Dallas Stars, but Roope Hintz is their 1C
- It was a toss-up between Dylan Strome and Evgeny Kuznetsov for the Washington Capitals; Strome was chosen
- Adam Henrique has the most TOI among centers for the Anaheim Ducks, and Leo Carlsson has spent time more recently in that role, but Ryan Strome was chosen as the 1C for this analysis
Elias Lindholm’s stats on the score sheet
Through 29 games, Lindholm is actually one of the most relied upon centers in the NHL. He plays a ton of minutes, in all situations, and is one of the most important players on the team. However, he simply has not produced at even close to the level he should be, and even further from what you’d expect from a player demanding $9M a year.
| Lindholm All Strengths | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw | 602:16 | 7 | 11 | 18 |
| Rank | 5 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
In all situations, Lindholm has played the fifth most minutes out of 1Cs in the NHL. However, he has just seven goals, 11 assists, and 18 points. Out of 32 players, that’s good for 27th in goals, 28th in goals, and 29th in points. There are only three other 1Cs with fewer points than Lindholm, and all have played fewer minutes. Jenner is tied with Lindholm in points, but has 13 goals compared to Lindholm’s seven.
At 5v5 only, it’s a similar picture.
| Lindholm 5v5 | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw | 397.4833 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| Rank | 13 | 25 | 23 | 27 |
Once again, Lindholm is among the league leaders in TOI, though at 13th he’s in the middle of the pack rather than in all situations being near the very top. Still, he has just four goals and six assists for 10 points, which ranks 25th, 23rd, and 27th respectively league-wide.
Of the five players with fewer points at 5v5 than Lindholm, only two have played more minutes than him, and those players are Nick Schmaltz and Matty Beniers.
It’s not great by any means for your 1C to be that low down the list in these types of statistics. Lindholm is expected to produce, and simply isn’t.
Elias Lindholm’s underlying analytics
Is Lindholm at least playing well despite not putting points on the board? Based on his possession numbers, the answer is unequivocally: no.
| Lindholm 5v5 | CF% | SCR% | HDCF% | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw | 47.67 | 44.54 | 48.8 | 46.36 |
| Rank | 28 | 31 | 25 | 30 |
Lindholm is underwater, by a significant margin, in every single possession metric. It’s mind-boggling that a player who was widely considered to be one of the league’s premier two-way centres has been run over this hard all season long.
Lindholm is ranked 28th out of 32 in shot share, 31st in scoring chance share, 25th in high-danger chance share, and 30th in expected goals share.
Consistently, Lindholm allows more shots, more scoring chances, and more high-danger chances than he creates. This isn’t even close to what you’d expect from a Selke Trophy calibre player. Simply put, he’s not in that echelon at all, at least this season.
The players who are below him in these categories include Tomas Hertl, Connor Bedard, and Ryan Strome, all 1Cs from teams fighting for the right to select first overall in next year’s draft. They are without consistent NHL-level teammates and are not expected to be good this year. Lindholm is not supposed to be in that group.
What’s going on with Lindholm?
At the end of the day, the numbers do not lie. Lindholm is getting buried when he’s on the ice, can’t put up points on the score sheet, and, to be frank, is consistently hurting the team more than he’s helping it.
Something’s got to give. Right now, Lindholm isn’t worth a contract extension, let alone one at $9M per year, and I can’t imagine teams around the league who were previously interested in acquiring him would be as interested looking at his numbers this season.
For those of you on Team Tank, Lindholm is helping the effort in a big way so far.
