The Calgary Flames’ first quarter of the 2023–24 season was a rollercoaster experience. The team started the year about as poorly as possible which led to discussions around a full tear-down rebuild, only for them to turn it around in the second November and get right back into the playoff race.
After each quarter mark of the season, we will assign a letter grade from A to F to each Flames player who logged over 100 minutes TOI in the quarter. These grades will take into consideration the 20 games between October 11 and November 24. The Flames went a very mediocre 8–9–3. Now, they currently sit ninth place in the Western Conference and two points out of a playoff spot.
As a team the Flames finished the quarter 10th for CF%, 15th for xGF% and 14th for HDCF%.
How do TWC’s POET rankings work?
A reminder that these rankings are based on a model that evaluates 5v5 play. In order to grade players, we will be using the TWC Player Offensive Evaluation Tool (POET).
The model operates similarly to the power rankings model we update on a weekly basis. The player model takes specific on-ice statistics including CF% at various danger levels, xGF%; individual statistics including goals, assists, offensive contributions, and penalty differentials; and includes an adjustment for time on ice, PDO, and offensive zone starts.
Each player’s statistics are put through the model and combined to produce an overall TWCScore. These scores are then compared to the rest of the league to determine what letter grade they fall into. If their TWC score is above 0 on their player cards then they are above average compared to all other players of the same position (forwards or defencemen).
It is important to note that the model is based on player performance at 5v5. This is not meant to diminish the efforts of the Flames work on special teams, but to be more representative of a players form against equal opposition. Only players with over 100 minutes at 5v5 were given grades. Let’s see who ranks where on the Flames squad.
All numbers are 5v5 score- and venue-adjusted (SVA) courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.com.
Forwards
A+
Connor Zary
Connor Zary may not have started the season in Calgary but since joining the team on November 1 he’s been a revelation and arguably the team’s best forward in the first quarter of the season.
Zary finished the quarter fifth among forwards for CF% and xGF% and second for HDCF%. What’s even more impressive is the fact he finished the quarter with seven points at 5v5 in just 10 games played. The total was fifth on the team despite playing in half the team’s game in the quarter. Not bad for a rookie.
Martin Pospisil
No Flame has come out of nowhere like Martin Pospisil this season. A fourth-round pick in 2018, Pospisil made his NHL debut a couple of weeks into the season and hasn’t looked back since. Like Zary, he was one of the team’s best forwards of the quarter.
Pospisil finished the quarter leading all forwards for CF%, xGF% and HDCF%. Offensively he’s posted five 5v5 points in 10 games. His three 5v5 goals were tied for second among all Flames forwards in the quarter despite him only logging 10 of 20 games.
A
Andrew Mangiapane
Andrew Mangiapane hasn’t had a perfect start to the season, but he remains a very strong two-way player who floats whatever line he’s on. He finished the quarter fourth for CF%, second for xGF%, and third for HDCF% among Flames forwards.
It’s his offensive production that really caries his grade though. His 11 5v5 points were tops on the Flames, as were his eight assists and five primary assists. If he can pick up his goal scoring he’s in for a solid season.
A-
Blake Coleman
Blake Coleman quietly had a very solid first quarter of the season. Despite playing in his usual third line role, he was one of the team’s top producers at 5v5. His 10 points at 5v5 were second to only Mangiapane while his six goals led the entire team. His 42 shots at 5v5 were also tops on the team.
On top of that, he finished second on the team for CF%, third for xGF%, and ninth for HDCF%. Overall a really solid quarter for the veteran with some surprising offensive impact for a player who is usually not on the scoresheet often.
B+
Nazem Kadri
Despite having a disastrous first couple of weeks of the season, Nazem Kadri really turned things around to close out the quarter and saved his overall grade. He finished the quarter with eight points at 5v5, good for a tie for third among Flames forwards. His 82 iCF was tops on the team.
In terms of underlying numbers, his CF% ranked seventh, while his xGF% and HDCF% ranked sixth. All said, a decent quarter from Kadri despite a terrible start.
Mikael Backlund
Mr. Reliable Mikael Backlund was back at it again to start the season, providing the team with some strong play even if his offensive numbers weren’t strong. He finished the quarter third for CF%, fourth for xGF%, and 10th for HDCF%.
Offensively he chipped in six points at 5v5, good for seventh on the team among forwards. His 41 shots at 5v5 ranked second on the team while his 5v5 shooting percent ranked third last suggesting there’s likely some positive regression coming soon.
B-
Yegor Sharangovich
After a really slow start to the season, Yegor Sharangovich picked up his play to close out the quarter and earned a decent grade. He finished the quarter with seven 5v5 points, good for sixth on the team among forwards. As well his four 5v5 goals ranked second behind only Coleman.
In terms of underlying results, he was just alright. His CF% ranked ninth, his xGF% ranked seventh and his HDCF% ranked fifth. Overall some positive signs from Sharangovich in his first 20 games as a Flame.
C+
A.J. Greer
For a waiver pickup, A.J. Greer provided the Flames with exactly what they needed in the first quarter. He was never expected to chip in offensively so anything he adds is a big bonus. He finished the quarter with a very solid six points at 5v5, good for ninth on the team among forwards.
In terms of his underlying results, his CF% and xGF% ranked 10th, while his HDCF% ranked eighth. Again as a waiver pickup, Greer did exactly what was expected of him and then some.
C
Elias Lindholm
Remember when Elias Lindholm turned down nearly $9 million AAV from the Flames? The Flames’ top line centre has been in a word, disappointing to start the season as he’s really struggled to look like an impact player. He finished the quarter with just eight points at 5v5, which was third on the team among forwards. However, he registered just 2.48 ixG across 20 games, eighth on the team.
His underlying numbers are where it gets ugly. He finished 11th for CF% and xGF%, and seventh for HDCF%. Not exactly the numbers you expect from your first line centre.
C-
Adam Ruzicka
Adam Ruzicka was given a fresh start this year under a new head coach and so far he’s completely squandered it. Ruzicka has found himself out of the lineup on multiple occasions as the offence just hasn’t come. Through his 15 games in the quarter, he managed just four points at 5v5, tied for the worst total among regular forwards.
On top of that, he mustered up just 15 shots at 5v5 and only 23 iCF across 15 games. He also ranked last for CF% and eighth for xGF%. Time may be running out for Ruzicka in Calgary.
Walker Duehr
Like Ruzicka, Walker Duehr has struggled to keep his spot in the lineup due to poor results in the first quarter. Across his 14 games, he posted just four points, tied with Ruzicka for worst among Flames forwards. He also somehow managed just eight shots at 5v5 in 110 minutes of ice time.
He also ranked second last for CF% and HDCF% and last for xGF%. If Duehr doesn’t turn it around soon he’s in danger of losing his spot in the lineup for good.
D+
Jonathan Huberdeau
Oof. Jonathan Huberdeau, the Flames highest paid player grades out as their worst forward of the first quarter. Huberdeau showed some signs of life briefly but the first quarter was mostly more of the same for Huberdeau as he struggled to make an impact.
Huberdeau posted just six points at 5v5, eighth most on the team among forwards. He also didn’t have a single primary assist at 5v5. Lastly, his 21 shots at 5v5 were seventh on the team, tied with fourth liner Greer.
Huberdeau’s underlying numbers weren’t great either as he finished sixth for CF%, ninth for xGF%, and 12th for HDCF%. There’s not much else to say. The Flames need so much more from their top player.
Defencemen
A+
MacKenzie Weegar
The vibes were immaculate for MacKenzie Weegar in the first quarter of the season. Weegar was dominant offensively and easily the team’s best defender. Weegar posted seven points at 5v5, leading the Flames blueline in both goals and primary assists. His 43 5v5 shots were also by far the best from the blueline.
His underlying weren’t as good though. His CF% ranked third, his xGF% ranked fourth and his HDCF% ranked sixth. Still, though, Weegar racked up shots and points from the blueline this quarter.
A
Noah Hanifin
Noah Hanifin did a nice jump pumping up his trade value this quarter. His six 5v5 points ranked tied second from the blueline while his three primary assists and two goals both ranked second behind Weegar.
Like Weegar, Hanifin’s underlying numbers weren’t the best. He ranked sixth for CF%, fifth for xGF%, and third for HDCF%. Either way, his offensive numbers were solid and among the best on the team.
A-
Nikita Zadorov
Despite his trade request Nikita Zadorov finished the first quarter of the season as a Flame. Overall it was a roller coaster first quarter as Zadorov looked great at times and then looked awful at times. His six points tied Hanifin for second from the blue while his five assists were second among Flames defenders.
His underlying numbers were strong throughout. He finished the quarter tops for CF% on the blueline, second for xGF%, and fourth for HDCF%. Could the second quarter be his last as a Flame?
Nick DeSimone
I’m just as surprised as you are. Nick DeSimone used a small sample size and some really strong underlying numbers to earn the fourth-highest grade on the Flames blueline. DeSimone finished the quarter second for CF%, first for xGF% and HDCF% as the only defender with an HDCF% above 60%.
He even added in four points at 5v5 in only eight games played. Overall DeSimone was solid in the time he played even if it wasn’t much.
C
Chris Tanev
This is the quarterly reminder that these are offensive report cards which is of course not Chris Tanev’s specialty. As such he grades out on the lower end. He finished the quarter with five 5v5 points, fifth on the blueline. He did however post just 17 shots at 5v5, the worst among regular Flames defenders.
He did however post some solid underlying numbers, finishing fifth for CF%, third for xGF%, and and second for HDCF%. Tanev continues to be one of the best defensive defenders on the team but his offensive impact will never be great.
Rasmus Andersson
Rasmus Andersson was the definition of mid in the first quarter. He really did move the needle in any way. His six 5v5 points were tied for second from the blueline, but all six were assists with four of them being secondary assists. He also posted just 19 shots at 5v5 across 16 games.
When looking at his underlying numbers, it gets even worse. He finished last for CF% and was the only defender under 50%. He also finished last for xGF%, and fifth for HDCF%. Not a great first quarter for Andersson.
F
Dennis Gilbert
Dennis Gilbert unsurprisingly was the team’s worst blueliner offensively in the first quarter. Gilbert posted just one point, a secondary assist, across his 11 games in the quarter. He also put up just nine shots.
His underlying weren’t the best either as he finished the quarter fourth for CF%, sixth for xGF%, and last for HDCF%. Gilbert is what he is, a replacement-level defenceman.
A slow start for the Flames
There’s no doubt the Flames kicked off the 2023-24 season with a lacklustre first quarter of the season. Most of the Flames roster really struggled offensively as the team only had a few standout performers, and even that group wasn’t anything special. Here’s hoping for some improved performances in the second quarter… unless you’re on Team Tank.
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