NHL Fantasy: What to do with underperforming goalies

We’re almost at the quarter pole of the 2023-24 NHL season. As teams start to separate themselves, the same thing is happening in fantasy leagues. If you took some swings on players in your draft and have been holding onto them despite poor performances to this point, now is the time to make decisions. Here are five goaltenders who are underperforming based on their pre-season rankings, and what the stats say you should do about it.

All stats are courtesy of Hockey-Viz. Using HockeyViz’s new graphic, you can visually see when a goalie has performed better and/or worse than expected.

1. Filip Gustavsson – MIN

• Preseason rank: 94
• Current rank: 456
• Ownership: 75%

The Minnesota Wild goalie has posted two wins, 4.15 GAA, and .882 SV% so far this season.

Gustavsson has had five awful games this season, but has performed at or better than expected in five. A mixed bag that has puts him at -2.2 GSAx this season, however his bad games have come primarily against very strong offensive teams: the Rangers, Devils, Oilers, Maple Leafs. There’s a good chance Gustavsson steadily improves as the season goes on. Even in last night’s game against the very good Avalanche, he performed well in the loss.

Decision: Hold

2. Devon Levi – BUF

• Preseason rank: 127
• Current rank: 468
• Ownership: 60%

The Buffalo Sabres goalie has posted three wins, 3.66 GAA, and .897 SV% so far this season.

Of his eight starts, Levi has actually performed very close to what would be expected. He had one truly bad game against the Bruins last week, but other than that he’s actually been fairly good. His overall GSAx is positive at +1.8. Despite being a rookie goalie, which is never easy, Levi has done an admirable job in Buffalo’s crease. In keeper leagues he’s obviously a no brainer to keep, but even this season his performance warrants a longer look.

Decision: Hold

3. Stuart Skinner – EDM

• Preseason rank: 132
• Current rank: 523
• Ownership: 63%

The Edmonton Oilers goalie has posted four wins, 3.66 GAA, and .865 SV% so far this season.

Skinner has played the most games out of any goalie on this list, and has had quite a few stinkers this year – six to be exact. However, on six other occasions he was positive in goals saved above expected. In total, Skinner sits at -0.8 GSAx, which is significantly higher than I would have thought based on how the Oilers goaltending is being covered. After Jack Campbell was sent to the AHL, Skinner has done a very good job in net, posting a +2.7 GSAx.

Decision: Buy

4. Ilya Samsonov – TOR

• Preseason rank: 141
• Current rank: 435
• Ownership: 76%

The Toronto Maple Leafs goalie has posted four wins, 3.56 GAA, and .878 SV% so far this season.

Joseph Woll has been the better goalie thus far in almost every category. He has more starts as a result, though Samsonov has put up his fair share of solid starts, too. Samsonov sits at +0.1 GSAx on the season, almost exactly at breakeven. He’s had three really awful starts that skew things in the wrong direction, and his past three starts have actually been very impressive, though they’ve come against easier opponents like the Blackhawks, Red Wings, and Predators. Woll, on the other hand, sits at a very impressive +7.8 GSAx, and has better-than-expected performances against much better opponents like the Lightning, Stars, Capitals, and Lightning again.

At the end of the day, Samsonov is not the best goalie in Toronto, and for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations, that’s all that matters.

Decision: Sell

5. Darcy Kuemper – WSH

• Preseason rank: 140
• Current rank: 304
• Ownership: 68%

The Washington Capitals goalie has posted four wins, 3.04 GAA, and .892 SV% so far this season.

The Capitals have played much better of late, not including their horrid 5-0 shutout loss last night that Kuemper watched happen from the bench. Despite the emergence of Charlie Lindgren who has racked up five starts and very impressive numbers on the scoreboard, Kuemper has hot performed as poorly as his stat line suggests.

Kuemper sits at +5.9 GSAx on the season, soured by two very poor games in October at the hands of the Senators and Maple Leafs. Outside of those two games, Kuemper has performed at or above expected in essentially all the rest, including solid starts against the Flames, Canadiens, Wild, Panthers, and Sabres. In comparison, Lindgren sits at +9.2 GSAx, very impressive, with solid performances against the Golden Knights, Devils, and Blue Jackets.

Lindgren should mix in some starts as he has done very well, but Kuemper is the bit ticket goalie and he’s done well enough to still start the majority of the games. This is not a Jack Campbell situation. Kuemper has had a good year, and, this is so far above what Lindgren has done in his career it makes sense to trust Kuemper over him.

Decision: Buy