Calgary Flames Over/Under 2018-19 Recap

Before the 2018-19 season started, we polled Flames fans about how various Flames players would perform. There were 24 questions, each about a different individual or team statistic. Now that the season has concluded, we thought we’d revisit the poll and see how things went.

Calgary Flames Over Under Results

From 59 responses, here’s how the predictions broke down:

QuestionO/U ValueActualO/U Result% Correct
Johnny Gaudreau Points81.599Over83%
Sean Monahan Goals33.534Over85%
Elias Lindholm Shots163.5182Over69%
Matthew Tkachuk Penalties Drawn39.532Under34%
Mikael Backlund Corsi For %55.555.3Under43%
Michael Frolik Goals9.516Over79%
Dillon Dube Games Played49.525Under22%
James Neal Goals26.57Under59%
Sam Bennett PIMs54.593Over53%
Mark Jankowski Goals14.514Under46%
Austin Czarnik Points29.518Under14%
Andrew Mangiapane Games Played41.544Over14%
Mark Giordano Points44.574Over69%
T.J. Brodie Assists36.525Under61%
Noah Hanifin Points38.533Under34%
Rasmus Andersson Games Played16.579Over78%
Juuso Valimaki Games Played29.524Under32%
Mike Smith Games Played55.542Under47%
David Rittich Save Percentage0.89950.911Over78%
Number of double digit goal scorers10.511Over71%
Longest winning streak7.57Under59%
Powerplay Rank12.518Under54%
Wins against Oilers2.52Under17%
Wins42.550Over88%

Biggest Hits

Team Wins: 42.5

The marker was set at 42.5, the exact threshold to make the playoffs this past season. Most thought the Flames would be a playoff team, and selected the over. With 50 wins, this one was wrapped up by mid-March.

Success Rate: 88%

Sean Monahan Goals: 33.5

Sean Monahan set his career high in goals the year prior with 31, and most predicted he’d hit at least the 34 goal mark this season. He manged to hit exactly that mark, establishing a new career high.

Success Rate: 85%

Johnny Gaudreau Points: 81.5

After eclipsing the point per game mark for the first time in his career, it was a big measuring stick year for Johnny Gaudreau, as many hoped he would take another step forward. There aren’t many players who hit the 82 point plateau, but Gaudreau finished with 99 at the end of the season. Will he hit 100 next year?

Success Rate: 83%

Biggest Misses

Andrew Mangiapane Games Played: 41.5

He was left off the season opening roster, and with the marker at a half-season, many didn’t expect Andrew Mangiapane to be a full time NHLer. He made his season debut with the Flames on December 2nd, and played another 43 games after that. He’ll likely play in all 82 games next season, barring an injury.

Success Rate: 14%

Austin Czarnik Points: 29.5

Austin Czarnik had an excellent preseason playing with Mikael Backlund and Matthew Tkachuk, and it looked like he’d be a permanent fixture in the Flames’ middle six. His career high was 13 points at the time, and being even the third wheel on the second line would have been enough for Czarnik to flirt with the 30 point mark. Unfortunately, he played in just 54 games and averaged just over 11 minutes per night, finishing the year with 18 points.

Success Rate: 14%

Wins against Oilers: 2.5

The Battle of Alberta. The last time the Flames won the BOA was the 2015-16 season. With a largely overhauled roster, many predicted this would be the season the Flames finally came out on top. Unfortunately, the Oilers won three of five games, and won the BOA for the third straight season. Perhaps the tides will turn next season.

Success Rate: 17%

Splits

Sam Bennett PIMs

Before the season, fans were split down the middle on Sam Bennett’s penalty minute total. With a history of taking bad penalties in the past, Bennett had reduced his PIM count from 75 to 59 the two seasons prior, but rebounded in a bad way this past season. He took the sixth most penalties in the NHL with 31, and the 10th most minor penalties with 24. Bennett finished with 93 PIMs, much more than the 54.5 mark we set.

Response Variance: 3%

Mark Jankowski Goals

Mark Jankowski had a breakout year with 17 goals in 2017-18. However, four of those goals came in the last game, and with that being his rookie season, it was tough to predict whether Jankowski would build on his previous season or endure a sophomore slump. The marker was set at 14.5 goals, and fans were undecided.

Response Variance: 4%

Mike Smith Games Played

Mike Smith performed better in the 2017-18 season than many expected, and with the backup goalie position going to an unproven commodity in David Rittich or Jon Gillies, it looked like Smith would need to play in the vast majority of games this season as well. Still, he was 37 years old and clearly regressing. As a result, fans were split on how many games he’d play. The mark was set at 55.5.

Response Variance: 3%

Powerplay Rank

The Flames’ powerplay in 2017-18 was a disaster. It operated at 16.0%, good for 29th place in the NHL. With new personnel in the fold including Elias Lindholm and James Neal (oops), Calgary’s powerplay was due for an improvement. Top 12 was a contentious mark though, as fans weren’t sure just how significant that improvement would be.

Response Variance: 4%

Close Calls

Longest winning streak

In 2017-18, the Flames enjoyed a seven game winning streak. The also suffered through a seven game losing streak, en route to missing the playoffs. This season, the mark was 7.5: would the Flames have an even better winning streak than the year before? 59% of respondents said they wouldn’t, and were correct in that answer. However, it was very close, as the Flames had a seven game winning streak, which would have been eight if they hadn’t lost a shootout to the Florida Panthers.

Variance: 0.5

Mark Jankowski Goals

Jankowski hitting the 15 goal plateau was a perfect question for this season. Fans were split on whether he’d hit that mark or not, and rightly so as he finished the season with 14.

Variance: 0.5

Sean Monahan Goals

Monahan scored 34 goals this season, just passing the over/under mark of 33.5. He was on pace to eclipse that mark for almost the whole season, until he went though a cold streak scoring just seven times in the final 32 games of the season.

Variance: 0.5

Number of double digit goal scorers

The Flames had 10 double digit goal scorers in 2017-18: Monahan Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Micheal Ferland, Dougie Hamilton, Jankowski, Backlund, Giordano, Bennett, and Frolik. Only two of those players, Ferland and Hamilton, were not on the team’s roster for 2018-19, but their scoring was expected to be replaced by new additions Lindholm, Neal, Czarnik, and Derek Ryan. The question at the beginning of the season was whether three of those four players could hit the 10 goal mark. The Flames did manage to beat last year’s total with 11 double digit goal scorers this year: Lindholm and Ryan were joined by the unexpected Garnet Hathaway who scored 11 goals.

Variance: 0.5


Next Season

Stay tuned for next season’s over under predictions poll!

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