Welcome to Week 26 of the TWC Power Rankings! Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray. Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!
|1||–||Tampa Bay Lightning||3-1-0||62-16-4||874.9|
|5||–||San Jose Sharks||2-1-0||46-27-9||788.1|
|6||-3||Toronto Maple Leafs||1-2-1||46-28-8||786.6|
|7||+2||St Louis Blues||3-0-1||45-28-9||782.8|
|8||-1||New York Islanders||2-1-0||48-27-7||780.7|
|11||-1||Vegas Golden Knights||1-2-0||43-32-7||767.4|
|12||–||Columbus Blue Jackets||2-1-0||47-31-4||763.8|
|27||–||New Jersey Devils||2-1-0||31-41-10||658.4|
|28||-3||New York Rangers||1-2-1||32-36-14||656.4|
|29||+1||Los Angeles Kings||2-2-0||31-42-9||641.4|
|30||-2||Detroit Red Wings||1-2-0||32-40-10||637.0|
Power Ranking Notables
It’s all over. The 2018-19 regular season is complete, and only 16 teams remain in the elusive hunt for the Stanley Cup. Tampa Bay and Calgary continued their stand at the top of our rankings, with the Boston Bruins making one final push to acquire the third position. The Carolina Hurricanes, who were advanced statistic darlings all season, made a huge push up the rankings over the final few weeks to finish in the fourth position.
Some top teams didn’t fare as well, as three playoff teams saw their rankings falter a bit down the stretch. Starting with the Toronto Maple Leafs, who went 1-2-1 last week and are 3-4-3 over their last 10. The Leafs are built for success, but stumbled near the end.
A lot of their playoff run and overall ability to win games will ride on Frederik Andersen‘s ability in goal, as it’s been all season long. With the goaltender drama they’ve gone through to end the season with the demotion of Garret Sparks and recalling Michael Hutchinson, having Andersen in net to start the playoffs will be a needed source of stability.
The Leafs don’t get the favourable first round draw at all, as Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, Zdeno Chara and company make for a tough opponent. Toronto will need to exorcise some demons in all aspects of their play if they ever want to stand a chance.
The Pittsburgh Penguins also fell a bit, with a 1-1-1 week. At one point in danger of missing the playoffs all together, the Penguins should obviously not be underestimated. It’s hard to tell what kind of impact they will have in the post season, but you can never count Sidney Crosby‘s team out. A matchup with the New York Islanders could be an interesting test, especially given how good Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss have been throughout the season. A good goaltender can lead a team to the Cup; the Islanders have two.
Finally, the Washington Capitals continued to fall down our rankings, despite clinching the Metropolitan Division. We have touched on their stats many times in the past, and although the fans haven’t liked their placing it’s simply due to their below average numbers. Their complete game isn’t as dominant as other teams, but other teams don’t have Alex Ovechkin. They have the playoff experience now, but how do they fare this time around?
Drawing Carolina easily creates one of the most exciting first round matchups. Carolina’s been making waves all season long, and with Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen enjoying career years, not to mention Dougie Hamilton leading all defencemen in scoring, they not an easy out. The Hurricanes are a good team and ending their long playoff drought with a first round exit is probably not on their itinerary.
As we touched upon last week, the Montreal Canadiens and Colorado Avalanche remain in the same positions. The two teams are on in opposite positions based on the playoff cutoff, and it’s tough to see the Canadiens who had great numbers all year just narrowly miss the mark. That being said, it is good news for another Canadian team, as the Flames draw the Avalanche in the first round.
Biggest Gainer and Loser
Gainer: Carolina Hurricanes & Nashville Predators (+4)
What a way to finish the season. Both the Hurricanes and Predators won their final three games of the season to head into the post season on a hot streak. The Predators win streak allowed them to clinch the Central Division, while the Hurricanes were almost able to jump into a Metropolitan divisional seed. These teams are the hottest of all the playoff teams at the moment, so hopefully the brief break doesn’t cool them down too much.
Loser: Toronto Maple Leafs, Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals, and New York Rangers (-3)
The three former teams we already touched on above, but the New York Rangers are one team that we haven’t spoken of in awhile. Due to the fact that they were a rebuilding squad, they didn’t make much noise this season. They had a tough final week, but went out on a winning note. With lots of young prospects in the system, and tons of cap space this off season, the Rangers could be a surprise team with a quickly finished rebuild in one or two seasons.
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
TWC Power Rankings:
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.