Welcome to Week 20 of the TWC Power Rankings! Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray. Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
|1||–||Tampa Bay Lightning||3-0-0||47-11-4||890.3|
|3||-1||San Jose Sharks||2-1-1||37-18-8||810.0|
|4||-1||Toronto Maple Leafs||1-1-1||37-20-4||802.9|
|6||–||New York Islanders||1-1-1||36-18-7||786.2|
|9||+2||St Louis Blues||2-1-1||33-23-6||763.6|
|10||-1||Columbus Blue Jackets||2-2-0||35-23-3||762.1|
|14||-4||Vegas Golden Knights||0-2-1||32-26-5||752.1|
|23||–||New York Rangers||2-1-1||27-26-9||683.2|
|25||-1||New Jersey Devils||1-2-0||24-30-8||662.9|
|28||–||Detroit Red Wings||0-2-1||23-31-9||633.8|
|30||-1||Los Angeles Kings||0-3-0||23-32-6||626.5|
Power Ranking Notables
Did you know the Tampa Bay Lightning have won eight straight games? I guess when you are the class of the league, accomplishments like that get somewhat lost along the way. It will be fascinating to see what the team does at the deadline, as the team is miles ahead of everyone. Do they even need to make any moves?
The Calgary Flames regained their second place position after winning their fifth consecutive game as a part of their perfect week. Although they have the lead in the Western Conference with games in hand, the team has some holes they could fill via the deadline. Of all the teams in play, the Flames could be the one to make the most noise. Will they go all-in and try to acquire Mark Stone, or seek out cheaper options like Kevin Hayes?
The San Jose Sharks, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Boston Bruins round out the top five. The latter two teams appear destined for another first round playoff match-up, which is unfortunate knowing one of these two high calibre teams won’t make it into the second round.
The statistical wizards, a.k.a. the Carolina Hurricanes, remain in the 6th spot in our rankings. Currently tied for the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference, the Hurricanes look to continue their surge into the post-season.
The two most interesting teams from this week would be the Washington Capitals and Minnesota Wild. Both had a very successful 3-1-0 week, but only saw very limited movement on our rankings. The Wild cling to a playoff spot by one point, while the Capitals sit in second place in the Metropolitan Division.
Both teams are on completely opposite ends of how our model ranks the teams. The Wild are statistically one of the better teams in the league, but their record is sinking team down the list. The opposite can be said for the Capitals, whose offensive outbursts overshadows their poorer underlying numbers. Being ranked in the middle is not necessarily a bad thing, but it shows how two the teams are in completely different scenarios.
Looking at the bottom of our list, the Anaheim Ducks’ solo win last week was somehow good enough to vault them out of last place. Largely due to the fact that things went much worse for the Los Angeles Kings and Ottawa Senators, who went a combined 0-7-0. They now rank 30th and 31st respectively. Both teams look to be having an estate sale for the deadline, with the Senators already running with a depleted crew. The summer can’t come quickly enough.
Biggest Gainer and Loser
Gainer: Nashville Predators (+5)
The Predators may have played the most games in the NHL at the moment, but a 2-1-0 week has them neck and neck and neck with the Jets for the division lead and making the list as our biggest gainer. Last week’s record is nothing to marvel at, as the majority teams losing ground caused the Predators to jump up.
The Predators are still a strong team statistically, and they will continue to make their way up the list. It will be extremely interesting to see what Nashville does by the end of the day, as losing out on Matt Duchene was a tough one to swallow.
Loser: Vegas Golden Knights (-4)
Although they sit comfortably in third place in Pacific Division, the Knights have been faltering as of late. Going 0-2-1 last week, the team hasn’t been able to keep pace with the Sharks and Flames. They look destined to open the playoffs on the road against one of those teams, but if they continue to lose then that third position could become much more interesting come April.
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
TWC Power Rankings:
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.