Welcome to Week 13 of the TWC Power Rankings! Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray. Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
|1||–||Tampa Bay Lightning||2-1-0||32-8-2||883.1|
|2||–||Toronto Maple Leafs||1-1-0||27-12-2||821.5|
|4||+3||Vegas Golden Knights||3-0-0||26-15-4||797.1|
|6||-1||San Jose Sharks||2-1-0||23-13-7||784.6|
|8||–||Columbus Blue Jackets||2-1-0||24-14-3||770.2|
|11||+3||New York Islanders||3-0-0||23-13-4||764.3|
|20||+2||New Jersey Devils||2-2-0||16-18-7||688.2|
|23||+2||St Louis Blues||1-2-0||16-19-4||669.1|
|24||-1||New York Rangers||1-3-0||17-17-7||664.5|
|28||–||Los Angeles Kings||2-2-0||17-23-3||634.2|
|30||+1||Detroit Red Wings||1-2-1||16-21-7||622.5|
Power Ranking Notables
The top three are unchanged from last week. The Tampa Bay Lightning remain the class of the league, and it would take a massive massive shift to knock them off the top. The Toronto Maple Leafs and Calgary Flames continue to jostle for the title of second best team on our rankings, with the Leafs retaining that title in week 13.
A team that has been making moves the past few weeks would be the Vegas Golden Knights. Currently on a six game winning streak and up to fourth in our rankings, the Golden Knights have also moved into a tie with the Flames in the Pacific Division. Even after last season’s surprisingly historic run, this season continues to impress. Max Pacioretty seems to have found his scoring groove, netting back to back game winners, and Marc-Andre Fleury is putting up Vezina numbers. Counted out earlier in the season due to a slow start, the Golden Knights have once again found themselves back in the contender category.
Rounding out the top five are the Winnipeg Jets, who have been absolutely ravaged by injuries as of late. A solid, though not perfect, 2-1-0 week only dropped them a single spot, but the next few weeks may be a bit more challenging. Life without Dustin Byufglien and Nikolaj Ehlers will be difficult, but for one of the deepest teams in the league it will be easier for them than others.
Two interesting teams to note would be the two Eastern Conference wild card teams: the New York Islanders and Buffalo Sabres. Both teams are on somewhat opposite trends as . The Islanders have exceeded even the wildest expectations and, after a perfect 3-0-0 week, they find rank 11th on our list. They aren’t blowing anyone away in terms of fancy stats, where they sit at or below average, but they are getting extremely solid goaltending from Robin Lehner. He has won his past six starts and has done a fine job to really steal points for his team. The Sabres on the other hand have been trending in the opposite direction ever since leading the league back in November. They are 3-5-2 in their past ten and after a 1-2-0 week they dropped four spots to 17th on our rankings. It is always interesting to see two teams sitting in playoff positions that couldn’t be more different.
As we move further down the list, we see that even with a perfect 4-0-0 week (which was the best in the entire league), the Carolina Hurricanes didn’t see that much of a jump. Even though they still lead several categories in our model, they are still being bottomed out by a poor winning percentage. This week is a step in the right direction.
At the bottom of our list, we have a new #31: the Ottawa Senators. Currently in the midst of an eight game losing streak, and sitting in last place in the NHL, the Senators appear to be headed towards another disastrous season. With rumors of Matt Duchene and Mark Stone on the trade block, and with no first round pick this season, you can’t help but feel awful for everyone involved. Prayers up for the Senators fans.
Biggest Gainer and Loser
Gainer: Boston Bruins (+4)
While there were a handful of teams with unbeaten records last week, the Boston Bruins were the recipients of the biggest jump. Only four spots on our list, but that puts the Bruins back inside the top ten. The Bruins are at somewhat of a disadvantage in the Atlantic Division as they sit behind the two of the best teams in the league. Luckily for them, they also deserve to be considered in that phrase. The Bruins have one of the best lines in the game and sit in the top half of the league across all statistical categories measured. They also sit first in SV%, due in large part to a strong Jaroslav Halak resurgence, and a recent return to form by Tuukka Rask. Expect the Bruins to continue their pace.
Loser: Washington Capitals (-6)
I guess things aren’t perfect at the top. Even though the Capitals are continuing to lead the Metropolitan Division, after a 1-2-1 week they find themselves dropping six spots to 12th. Frankly this isn’t that big of an issue and is mainly due more to the fact other teams are riding some hot streaks. Interestingly, the Capitals only sit in the upper half of the league in one statistical category: 10th in SV%. In terms of CF%, SCF%, and HDCF% they sit 22nd, 19th, and 28th respectively. Their drop in our rankings is more aligned with their statistical drop in play, but they are still in first so no love lost here. They’re a good team, but aren’t without their issues.
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
TWC Power Rankings:
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.