With the Vancouver Canucks officially eliminated from the playoffs on Sunday, the Flames now have some more clarity on Vancouver’s 2024 first-round pick that they received in the Elias Lindholm deal. With the Canucks failing to make it to the Conference Final, but being the first division winner to be eliminated, the Flames will be receiving the 28th overall selection from Vancouver.
The Flames have picked 28th overall just once in franchise history, also with a draft pick acquired via a trade. In 2013 the Flames used the Pittsburgh Penguins first-round pick acquired in the Jarome Iginla trade on Morgan Klimchuk at 28th overall. Needless to say the Flames don’t exactly have a storied history with the 28th overall selection.
Regardless, how often does the 28th overall selection work out? Let’s take a look at who has been picked in that slot over the years.
The last ten 28th overall picks
2023 – Easton Cowan – Toronto Maple Leafs
The most recent 28th overall selection, Easton Cowan went from being a gigantic reach to what looks to be one of the better picks of the first round. It just goes to show how much of a lottery the end of the first round is. After putting up only 53 points in the OHL in his draft year, Cowan was projected as a third-round pick before the Maple Leafs selected him 28th.
Fast forward a year and Cowan just completed a 96 point season in the OHL in which he won both the regular season and playoff MVP awards. This looks like great value at 28th overall less than a year after it looked like an instant mistake.
2022 – Jiri Kulich – Buffalo Sabres
It’s still very early, but Jiri Kulich looks like a potential homerun selection at 28th overall by the Buffalo Sabres. Kulich made the immediate jump to the AHL after being drafted in 2022, a rarity for 28th overall picks. He made the most of it though, as he’s since posted AHL seasons of 46 and 45 points respectively and only turned 20 a month ago. Kulich was ranked as the 21st best drafted prospect by The Athletic in March, a list typically dominated by top 10 selections. You can’t do much better than Kulich at 28th overall as he already looks like a big-time steal.
2021 – Chase Stillman – New Jersey Devils
As a refresher, the Ottawa Senators forfeited the 11th overall selection in the 2021 draft so although Chase Stillman is listed as the 29th overall pick, he was technically the 28th player off the board. Stillman spent two more seasons in the OHL after being drafted but failed to register a point per game season in junior. This recent season, two years after being drafted, he made the jump to the AHL. In 54 games, he posted a modest 24 points. It’s too early to determine how this pick will turn out, but so far the results haven’t been great.
2020 – Ridly Greig – Ottawa Senators
Four years after being drafted 28th overall, Ridly Greig is a full-time NHL player. That counts as a win in my books for a 28th overall selection. Greig dominated the WHL after being drafted before making the jump to pro hockey in 2022 in his D+3 season, logging games in both the AHL and NHL. This most recent season he posted 26 points in 72 games in his first taste of full-time NHL action. Greig is already a full-time NHLer at just 21 years old and has plenty of runway left to round out his game. This looks like a great pickup at 28th overall.
2019 – Ryan Suzuki – Carolina Hurricanes
Since being selected 28th in 2019, just about everything possible has gone wrong for Ryan Suzuki. He’s dealt with multiple serious injuries, missed his D+2 season in the OHL due to the pandemic, and was forced to switch AHL teams because of the Hurricanes minor league situation. After looking like a potential steal in 2019, Suzuki is yet to play in the NHL five years later and is far from a sure thing to ever earn an NHL job. Again, it showcases just how volatile late first-round picks are, as even the ones that seem like good picks at the time can end up being complete whiffs just a few years later.
2018 – Nils Lundkvist – New York Rangers
Nils Lundkvist is the picture-perfect example of needing a change of scenery. After being picked 28th in 2018, he would earn just 25 games with the Rangers over his first four years in the organization. He’d eventually be shipped out of town in 2022, just four years after being drafted. However, since being dealt, Lundqvist has developed into a regular NHL defender in Dallas and has played 119 NHL games over the last two years, as well as 12 playoff games this season. Even though this pick didn’t work out for New York, Lundkvist has proven his value as a 28th overall selection as he’s turned into a dependable NHL player.
2017 – Shane Bowers – Ottawa Senators
Seven years later, it’s safe to proclaim Shane Bowers as a swing and a miss at 28th overall. Bowers was actually dealt by the Senators to the Avalanche in the blockbuster Matt Duchene trade just a few months after being drafted. Unfortunately, he earned just one NHL game with the Avalanche before being dealt again in 2023 to Boston. He never played a game for the Bruins and was then traded again just a few months later to New Jersey. He played eight games for the Devils this past season, but at 24 years he’s yet to earn a full-time NHL job.
2016 – Lucas Johansen – Washington Capitals
Yet another miss at 28th, the Washington Capitals picked up Lucas Johansen at the 2016 draft. Johansen made the jump to the AHL a year after being drafted, and played five seasons in the minors before getting his first taste of NHL action in 2022. He’s since played just eight more NHL games across the past two seasons, and at this point in his trajectory looks like a career AHLer.
2015 – Anthony Beauvillier – New York Islanders
You’d have to go back to 2015 when the New York Islanders selected Anthony Beauvillier to find the last 28th overall pick to play over 150 NHL games. Beauvillier had an impressive junior career in the QMJHL before making the NHL in 2016 just a year after being drafted. Beauvillier was a regular for the Islanders for seven years before being dealt in the Bo Horvat deal in 2023.
All said, over the past eight years Beauvillier has carved out a respectable NHL career, logging 550 NHL games and 246 points, as well as 31 points in 55 playoff games. He’s never eclipsed 40 points and looks like a career bottom-six skater, but for a 28th overall pick, he’s provided decent value.
2014 – Joshua Ho-Sang – New York Islanders
Joshua Ho-Sang was one of those players that had all the makings of an impact NHL player but could just never put it all together no matter how many chances he got. Ho-Sang made the jump to pro hockey in 2016, two years after being drafted, and posted a solid 36 point rookie season in the AHL. The same year he made his NHL debut with 10 points in 21 games. Unfortunately, over the next couple years, he managed just 32 more NHL games and 14 points.
Ho-Sang’s last taste of NHL action came in 2018-19, and just seven years after being drafted he left the Islanders in free agency in 2021 with only 53 NHL games under his belt. He’s since bounced between the AHL, KHL and ECHL and is considered a bust at 28th overall.
How often do 28th overall picks make the NHL?
For a deeper overall look at how often 28th overall draft picks become NHL players, let’s look at how many of these picks since the turn of the century have played NHL games, played in at least 200 NHL games, and have registered at least 200 points in the NHL.
I’ll exclude the last three drafts as it’s too early to include those picks. Overall that leaves us with 21 total 28th overall picks between the 2000 and 2020 drafts.
| Metric | 28th overall picks (between 2000 – 2020) |
|---|---|
| Played NHL Games | 18 of 21 |
| >200 NHL GP | 8 of 21 |
| >200 NHL Points | 7 of 21 |
At 28th overall, you’re very likely going to get at least some NHL games from the player you pick. Between 2000 and 2020, 18 of the 21 players selected 28th overall have played NHL games. The only three who haven’t are Adrian Foster from the 2001 draft, Zack Phillips drafted in 2011, and Ryan Suzuki picked in 2019. Suzuki still has a chance to play NHL games, which would raise the number to 19.
With that said, it’s worth mentioning that three of the 18 players who played in the NHL played just one single game. Jonas Johansson selected in 2002, Nick Petrecki in 2007, and of course Klimchuk from the 2013 draft all topped out at one game in the NHL.
Building off of the above, while most 28th overall picks get to the NHL, it’s much less common for them to actually become full-time NHLers. Of the 21 players selected between 2000 and 2020, only eight have played over 200 NHL games. Those players are Justin Williams (2000), Corey Perry (2003), Mark Fistric (2004), Matt Niskanen (2005), Nick Foligno (2006), Charlie Coyle (2010), Brady Skjei (2012), and Anthony Beauvillier (2015). Both Greig and Lundkvist are near locks to hit 200 over the next year or two which would raise the total to 10 of 21.
Similarly, it can be difficult to find NHL producers at 28th overall. Just seven of 21 players selected in the slot between 2000 and 2020 have totalled 200 points in the NHL. The list of players is identical to the 200 NHL games played except for Mark Fistric who managed 94 career points in the NHL. Greig and Lundkvist have a good shot of raising that number to nine over the next couple years.
Most notable 28th overall picks in NHL history
Throughout the history of the NHL draft, here are the most notable players selected 28th overall. I’ll consider players who have gone on to have strong careers as impact players in the NHL.
| Year | Player |
|---|---|
| 2012 | Brady Skjei* |
| 2010 | Charlie Coyle* |
| 2006 | Nick Foligno* |
| 2005 | Matt Niskanen |
| 2003 | Corey Perry* |
| 2000 | Justin Williams |
| 1993 | Shean Donovan |
| 1985 | Mike Richter |
Impact NHL players are few and far between at 28th overall, but that doesn’t mean there haven’t been some hits over the years. In particular, during the 2000’s and early 2010’s, the 28th overall pick was a factory for NHL talent. It’s fair to say six of the eight best 28th overall picks in NHL history were all picked during that span.
Perry is the best of the bunch, as he’s a good bet to enter the Hall of Fame one day and was a top-of-the-lineup player for a decade after being drafted. Williams, Niskanen, Foligno, Coyle, and Skjei have all had solid NHL careers and exceeded the expectations for a 28th overall selection as well.
Unfortunately, there hasn’t been another player of note drafted in the slot since Skjei in 2012, and before Williams in 2000, there were only really two worth mentioning in Shean Donovan in 1993 and Mike Richter in 1985.
A lottery pick
After the first 10 or so picks in the first round, the draft becomes a lottery of sorts. Even at 28th overall, the odds of picking an impact NHL player aren’t great. Over the course of history at the NHL draft, you’re more likely to miss at 28th overall than you are to pick up an NHL player. With that said, there have been some serious hits over the years and we can only hope the Flames add another name to that list in June.
