Evaluating Dustin Wolf’s performance based on the phase of the moon

After Dustin Wolf posted a rough loss against the San Jose Sharks last night, the biggest question on the minds of Calgary Flames fans was if the star goalie was ready for NHL duties. To answer this question, we looked into how Wolf performs based on the phase of the moon. Let’s settle the debate once and for all: does the Wolf howl at the moon?

A recap of Dustin Wolf’s games as a member of the Flames

To date, Wolf has played seven games for the Flames over his young NHL career. Here’s the full list:

1. April 12, 2023: win over the San Jose Sharks
2. November 11, 2023: loss to the Ottawa Senators
3. December 5, 2023: loss to the Minnesota Wild
4. December 7, 2023: win over the Carolina Hurricanes
5. December 9, 2023: loss to the New Jersey Devils
6. December 12, 2023: overtime loss to the Vegas Golden Knights
7. February 15, 2024: loss to the San Jose Sharks

Wolf is sporting a career record of 2-4-1 in the NHL, not great by any means but he’s still a very young goalie.

His basic stats in those games are as follows:

Date	Decision	GA	SA	SV	SV%
12-Apr-23	W	1	24	23	0.958
11-Nov-23	L	4	38	34	0.895
05-Dec-23	L	2	13	11	0.846
07-Dec-23	W	2	30	28	0.933
09-Dec-23	L	3	29	26	0.897
12-Dec-23	O	5	39	34	0.872
15-Feb-24	L	6	31	25	0.806

The phase of the moon on Wolf’s game days

Looking up, the moon was in the following phases on the days Wolf played NHL minutes.

Date	Illumination	Phase	Image
12-Apr-23	57%	Waning gibbous
11-Nov-23	3%	Waning crescent
05-Dec-23	45%	Waning crescent
07-Dec-23	27%	Waning crescent
09-Dec-23	11%	Waning crescent
12-Dec-23	0%	New moon
15-Feb-24	40%	Waxing crescent

Wolf has yet to play on a night where the moon was over 57% illuminated; most of his game days have been when the moon was mostly dark rather than illuminated, which is definitely a bias factor in this hard-hitting scientific analysis. A larger sample size will be needed to draw accurate conclusions.

Comparing Wolf’s performance to the phase of the moon

Lining up Wolf’s performance with the illumination percentage of the moon on that night yields interesting results.

Looking at Wolf’s save percentage versus the illumination percentage of the moon, there appears to be a slightly positive linear relationship between the two variables. As the moon becomes brighter, Wolf tends to save a higher percentage of shots. It doesn’t look like there is anything conclusive here.

If we look at goals against, the trend is very clear, however.

As the moon becomes brighter, there is a distinct relationship with the number of goals Wolf allows. One caveat here is that Wolf did not play 60 minutes every time. This was not considered in this analysis and may be considered in future reports. Still, Wolf has allowed fewer goals when the moon is more illuminated, that much is fact.

How to optimize Wolf going forward

Clearly, there is a connection between Wolf’s performance and the phase of the moon. Going forward the Flames should try and start Wolf in games where the moon is more illuminated, ideally as close to the full moon as possible.