Youthful players proving sharp shooters

After five games, even those with only mild interest in hockey were surprised that the Flames were 0–5. Since then, however, the Flames have woken up. Many have cited Devin Cooley’s extended run with the team. Others link it to Connor Zary being sent to the Wranglers. However, there’s another aspect that deserves attention: an improvement in the team’s shot conversion.

The Flames failed to score more than once in any of their opening three games. Despite being shut out by the Oilers at the end of October, the results before and after that game generally show that the Flames have started finding the net more regularly since their opening three games. Three were put past the Avs (albeit in a losing effort), as well as in a surprise win against the Hurricanes. Four hit the nets of Anaheim and Detroit, five went into Toronto’s, and six through Seattle. The defence has also looked (mostly) more stable since then.

As of the morning of November 8th, the Flames are seventeen games into the final season at the Saddledome. The increased reliance on youth has started to produce results, despite many preseason predictions.

But who has been the most deadly in front of the net?

The high performers: Youth leads the way in shot conversion…well, some of them!

Joel Farabee leads the way in goals scored for the Flames, netting six times from his forty-one shots on net. That gives a 14.6% conversion rate, but that only gives him the third-highest on the team.

William Stromgren leads the way in terms of shot conversion, netting 33.3% of his shots, although he has only played in three games. Take his current rate with a pinch of salt, but it’s still an impressive start. In terms of a player who has had a longer period of time to prove themselves, Aydar Suniev sits on 19%, with four from twenty-one. Suniev leads the way in terms of conversion for those with more than ten appearances so far this season.

Matvei Gridin has the fourth-highest conversion rate overall, putting away 13.5% of his shots (five goals from thirty-seven shots).

Given that youth being the way forward has been the general outlook for some time now, the performances from Gridin, Stromgren, and Suniev are reasons to be optimistic.

Most of the rest of the team are hovering in the low double digits. Last season’s leading points scorer, Matt Coronato, sits at 8.3%, having only scored three goals from thirty-six shots. His conversion rate is the third lowest among forwards to have scored a goal so far this season for the Flames.

The underperformers – Declining numbers from the experienced players

Matt Coronato may be somewhat of a surprise with his 8.3%, but that is still better than captain Mikael Backlund.

During his long Flames tenure, Backlund has seldom been a high scorer. In fact, he has only scored twenty or more on three occasions. The last of those came in the 2018–19 season. If he continues at his current rate this season, he will only finish with low double-digit goals. As it stands, his conversion rate is just 5%, scoring twice from forty shots. His total shots taken are only surpassed by Farabee, but with nearly 1/3 of the success rate.

Backlund’s experience and defensive contribution remain valuable, but Calgary will want more offensive production from its captain, particularly as younger forwards begin to make their case for increased responsibility on a regular basis.

Ryan Strome has also been shot-happy, but hasn’t had the accuracy. His three from thirty-seven results in an 8.1% conversion. Only Backlund has a lower percentage among those forwards that have scored.

Out of those forwards to have played more than ten games, Jonathan Castagna has yet to register a goal. He’s also averaging less than a shot per game, taking just ten in fourteen appearances.

Out with the old, and in with the new?

Just like anything in life, the Flames will have many ups and downs throughout the rest of the season. The youth are, for the most part, giving a good account of themselves, and that’s surely a good thing.

On the flip side, however, the diminishing returns of some of the more senior players are something to worry about. It’s likely those forwards will chip in with a decent number of assists, but ultimately, 5% and 8.3% shot conversion rates from the two most experienced players on the team just aren’t good enough.

Could those players find themselves on a lower line if they continue to waste chances, especially as youth is emerging? Coronato obviously fits into the youth category and has regularly been cited as a cornerstone of the rebuild. However, if I were Strome or Backlund, I’d start to worry.

You can either be sentimental or hold players to their current merit. You can’t do both and be successful.

Add to this the fact that players such as Cole Reschny, Ethan Wyttenbach, and Cullen Potter are coming through the system; it wouldn’t surprise me if the experienced players make way for them.