It’s that time of the year for The Win Column’s NHL Draft Rankings and Draft Profiles! The 2024 NHL Draft will take place on June 28 and 29 at The Sphere in Las Vegas.
Next up for us is the Swedish 2006-born centreman, Lucas Pettersson. Pettersson projects as a possible late first-round pick to a likely second-rounder, landing somewhere between 30th–55th overall.
Who is Lucas Pettersson?
| Player | Position | Handedness | Height | Weight | AVG TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Pettersson | C | L | 5’11” | 172 LBS | 20:05 |
Lucas Pettersson’s On-Ice Production
| Season | Draft Relative | League | Team | GP | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019–20 | D-4 | U16 Div.1 | MODO Hockey U16 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2020–21 | D-3 | U16 Div.1 | MODO Hockey U16 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021–22 | D-2 | U16 Region | MoDo Hockey U16 | 23 | 16 | 21 | 37 |
| J18 Region | MoDo Hockey J18 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| J18 Nationell | MoDo Hockey J18 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 4 | ||
| 2022–23 | D-1 | J18 Region | MoDo Hockey J18 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 30 |
| J18 Nationell | MoDo Hockey J18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| J20 Nationell | MoDo Hockey J20 | 29 | 5 | 14 | 19 | ||
| 2023–24 | D+0 | J18 Nationell | MoDo Hockey J18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J20 Nationell | MoDo Hockey J20 | 44 | 27 | 30 | 57 | ||
| SHL | MoDo Hockey | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
One thing to keep in mind for North American fans is that the J20 level in Sweden could be comparable to a Junior A league in Canada.
Pettersson certainly hasn’t packed many suitcases in his young hockey career, as he’s played at various levels within the Swedish Modo hockey academy since the 2019–20 season. The Örnsköldsvik-born Swede has taken a significant step forward this past season, predominantly playing with Modo’s U20 team, where he is undeniably their star centreman, averaging anywhere from 22–31 or so minutes a night—just writing that made me tired! En route to putting up 27 goals and 30 assists this past season, Pettersson got five opportunities at the SHL level with Modo, where he played a limited 2.5–8 minutes a night in a sheltered role.
In addition to the SHL appearances in the 2023–24 season, the 5’11” centreman also got to represent Sweden internationally on two separate occasions. In both occasions Pettersson was a point per game or better at the U18 Gretzky-Hlinka Cup (two goals and two assists in four games), and the IIHF World U18 championship (three goals and five assists in seven games), helping Sweden secure a bronze medal for the 2024 iteration.
This international spotlight was nothing new to the 2006-born centreman, who also represented Sweden last year at the U17 World Hockey Championship. Overall, the Modo forward had an impressive season, which will likely result in his being selected in the second round of the 2024 NHL draft.
What type of game does Pettersson play? The speedy centreman plays a game that is a combination of a prototypical playmaker and a two-way forward. Defined by quality, high motor skating, vision, and puck skills.
Pettersson’s Strengths
Skating
The instant Petterson hits the ice, it’s obvious the centreman has a high compete level and motor that few in the J20 can match. On the mechanical level, Pettersson has good all-around ability, with a clean stride, posture, ankle flection, lateral and dynamic acceleration, edgework, and agility.
Particularly in offensive transition, Petterson shows good outside edgework through the fact that he can turn almost on command. He often button hooks behind his own team’s play to create an acceleration runway that allows him quick movement in transition and a rarely contested zone entry as the momentum carries him forward. This good lateral acceleration blends well with his agility and ability to create unique skating lanes that add elements of slight unpredictability to his skating lanes.
All of this creativity and strong skating base allow him to often control the pace of play at the J20 level. Even more threatening is that Pettersson takes advantage of his acceleration and lane creation with or without the puck, which makes him deadly on the forecheck as he excels in smart challenges and puck stripping of his opponents largely because of his skating.
In transition play, the centreman also shows decent backward crossovers in instances where he needs to cover for an out-of-position defender, and his continued coverage in-zone shows decent defensive instincts. In-zone the skating fundamentals are further complemented by a good hustle, particularly on the defensive. These skating qualities were directly transferable to the pro game, and clearly displayed in his SHL games.
Senses
Pettersson shows quality sense, defensive responsibility, and vision that reaps results at both ends of the ice. The 5’11” centreman does a decent job of constantly scanning and looking for space in all 200 feet of ice, meaning he never falls behind on a play and displays quality instincts in all three zones.
Through this scanning, Pettersson has a good defensive and offensive awareness in both play reading and positioning which means he is rarely out of place in a play, and is a huge asset on Modo J20 penalty kill where he averaged 1:53 of PK time per game. As a matter of fact, on the defensive, his spatial awareness and play reading/opponent lane identification are solid to the point where he will intercept passes, and suddenly, it becomes a chance for on the rush.
This play reading is further complemented by his stick positioning, as he is always blocking lanes and doing a constant risk assessment. This risk assessment is also obvious in the defensive pressure the Örnsköldsvik product exerts, as he can alternate between the primary and secondary forechecker while only showing aggression in plays he knows he will succeed, showing elements of a good hockey IQ.
This risk assessment generates lots of forced giveaways that Pettersson is able to turn into chances. This stick positioning on defensive challenges is particularly fast and allows for quick stick lifts happening often before the opposing team even realizes it.
Puck skills
Lastly, Pettersson displays a calm game of high-end puck skills in terms of passing, handling, and vision. The Swedish centre is an asset on the breakout, often kickstarting it with quality short and long passes that have decent—but sometimes inconsistent—accuracy. There is a fair mix of bank passes showing advanced play anticipation and hockey IQ. Mix this with his vision both on the rush and in zone play, and he is an undeniable impact player for MODO J20. In transition play, Pettersson favours creative drop passes upon o-zone entry, typically just as he passes by the opposing blue line, creating deception and demonstrating his aptitude as a zone-entry puck handler.
In other instances, Pettersson shows decent puck handles, dangling around defenders, and establishing smart body leverage. Whether or not the Swede can continue getting this favourable body leverage at the next level remains to be seen. In zone-play, he proves to be a capable facilitator.
This facilitating is exemplified by his work on the power play. He often serves down low on the right half wall but is not scared to cycle up and be a quarterback. Judging by his usage of 3:26 of power play ice per game, the coaches trust him in this position.
All in all, Pettersson identifies play targets well and is capable of passing straight to options in the slot, or behind the net, allowing for unexpected pucks to find the back of nets.
Pettersson’s areas of improvement
Physicality/Power
Pettersson shows limited aptitude for the physical elements of the game, which can limit his effectiveness, especially on smaller ice in North America. This is especially concerning when you take into account his hesitancy to block shots, engage in board play, and generally hit. This could be due to an obvious lack of muscle mass—which will solve some power issues that Pettersson has in general—but that is not entirely going to solve the issue of a lack of physicality in Pettersson’s game.
One upside is that the Swede shows good balance and can hold himself stable despite being hit around. How Pettersson adapts to smaller ice in North American professional hockey could make or break his game.
Other elements that could use improvement include faceoff form and shooting accuracy. As of right now, Pettersson wins 56% of his faceoffs and takes 46% of them in the O-zone and 31% in the D-zone, so he can be clutch. However, the Swede employs a somewhat decent drawback faceoff form that could use further refinement as he graduates to professional hockey—preferably, a heavier use of momentum and establishing a lower centre of gravity would further help.
Shot accuracy also needs improvement. With only 62% accuracy and taking into account the high-quality chances Pettersson generates, his shot control simply needs to be better. He has decent finishing ability, and if he can improve his shot control, he will become a more dangerous scoring threat.
Potential
High top-nine possibility to top-six potential depending on North American adjustment
Pettersson likely slots in as a top-nine forward, but if he can find footing with Modo’s SHL team as a shutdown defensive player with an aptitude for playmaking, he could be more. Time will tell, but Pettersson does look to be on the upward swing and could make himself a home on an NHL roster in the future.
Pettersson’s Comparables
For comparables in the NHL, Pettersson’s game is similar to Anthony Cirelli’s, where he can be effective in multiple areas.
Fit with the Flames
Pettersson would likely be a secondary element in the Flames’ attack, serving primarily as a penalty killer and on a shutdown line.
Summary
All in all, Pettersson clocks out as a two-way forward with play-making tendencies, defined by good skating, pace, senses, and puck skills, and a noted lack of physicality.
Risk 3.5/5
One element to be noted is that Pettersson signed a four-year extension with Modo Hockey on December 23, 2023. Modo likely did this to prevent an NHL team from drafting him and then immediately signing him to play in the AHL.
The biggest risk is just how well his game translates to smaller ice. He currently is able to find lots of space and generate offensive upside, but his lack of physical stability raises some concerns when his space is limited.
Reward 4/5
Pettersson does show NHL-capable skills, and it all comes down to whether he can continue his upward trend.
Projection: High top-nine, possible top-six player
Check out all of The Win Column’s individual player profiles of selected 2024 NHL Draft prospects:
Macklin Celebrini | Ivan Demidov | Artyom Levshunov | Sam Dickinson | Cayden Lindstrom | Berkly Catton | Cole Eiserman | Zeev Buium | Konsta Helenius | Zayne Parekh | Carter Yakemchuk | Anton Silayev | Tij Iginla | Adam Jiricek | Michael Brandsegg-Nygard | Liam Greentree | Igor Chernyshov | Trevor Connelly | Aron Kiviharju | Michael Hage | Ryder Ritchie | Sacha Boisvert | Nikita Artamonov | Maxim Masse | Cole Hutson | Beckett Sennecke | Dominik Badinka | Emil Hemming | Henry Mews | Terik Parascak | Alfons Freij | Charlie Elick | EJ Emery | John Mustard | Luka Misa | Tanner Howe | Lucas Pettersson | Matvei Gridin | Dean Letourneau | Leo Sahlin Wallenius | Jesse Pulkkinen | Cole Beaudoin | Kamil Bednarik | Jett Luchanko | Andrew Basha | Stian Solberg | Adam Jecho | Matvei Shuravin | Veeti Vaisanen
