In what will be the final TWC NHL Power Rankings of the 2021-22 season, we have the last ranking of the remaining four teams in the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs. There is still a clear favourite amongst the bunch, but the other three teams are lurking to varying degrees. With the Stanley Cup Final luring on the horizon, the quest to name a champion is almost here.
Welcome back to the TWC Playoff Power Rankings!
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Playoff Power Rankings? Leave us a comment and let us know!
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|2||–||Tampa Bay Lightning||1-2||9-5||1026.3|
|4||–||New York Rangers||3-1||10-7||924.9|
Power Ranking Notables
The Colorado Avalanche, yet again, are the crown jewel of our TWC Power Ranking model. With an 11–2 record in the postseason, including a 3-0 series lead against the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference Finals, it’s clear the Avalanche are the best so far.
Even with injuries to starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper and Nazem Kadri, the Avs have successfully replaced them as a committee and continued to take care of business. The Avs are dominating the Oilers across the board. Both sides of the ice tilt towards the Avalanche’s favour, with most individual battles being won as well.
It’s going to be nearly impossible for the Oilers to come back from a 0–3 deficit against a team like the Avalanche.
In the Eastern Conference, although the New York Rangers have the 2–1 edge in the series, the Tampa Bay Lightning get the edge in our model. Most of this is a result of the fact that the Lightning have played fewer games and have nine wins, giving them the edge in P% in our model. That being said, the Lightning also hold better numbers in CF%, xGF%, SCF%, and HDCF%.
It should come as no surprise that the New York Rangers, aka Igor Shesterkin, hold the edge in SV%. This edge is actually much smaller than you think, as both teams sit second and third with 92.7% and 91.7% respectively. So far the series hasn’t necessarily been the goaltending battle originally predicted, but Shesterkin is giving the Lightning all they can handle.
With the series being 2–1 for the Rangers, Game 4 becomes even more critical for both sides. It wouldn’t be surprising to say that whoever wins Game 4, wins the series.
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
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