Welcome back to the TWC Playoff Power Rankings!
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Playoff Power Rankings? Leave us a comment and let us know!
| Rank | Change | Team | Team Name | Last Week | Record | TWCScore |
| 1 | – |  | Colorado Avalanche | 0-0 | 3-0 | 1330.5 |
| 2 | – |  | Pittsburgh Penguins | 0-0 | 2-1 | 1092.6 |
| 3 | – |  | Washington Capitals | 0-0 | 2-1 | 1047.4 |
| 4 | – |  | Dallas Stars | 0-0 | 2-1 | 999.2 |
| 5 | – |  | Minnesota Wild | 0-0 | 2-2 | 970.7 |
| 6 | – |  | Edmonton Oilers | 0-0 | 2-2 | 962.9 |
| 7 | – |  | Boston Bruins | 0-0 | 2-2 | 956.4 |
| 8 | – |  | Toronto Maple Leafs | 0-0 | 2-2 | 940.4 |
| 9 | – |  | Tampa Bay Lightning | 0-0 | 2-2 | 915.7 |
| 10 | – |  | Los Angeles Kings | 0-0 | 2-2 | 913 |
| 11 | – |  | Carolina Hurricanes | 0-0 | 2-2 | 908 |
| 12 | – |  | St Louis Blues | 0-0 | 2-2 | 901 |
| 13 | – |  | Calgary Flames | 0-0 | 1-2 | 898.2 |
| 14 | – |  | Florida Panthers | 0-0 | 1-2 | 823.9 |
| 15 | – |  | New York Rangers | 0-0 | 1-2 | 789.1 |
| 16 | – |  | Nashville Predators | 0-0 | 0-3 | 542.8 |
Power Ranking Notables
The 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs have arrived and are in full force. Eight series are underway for the 16 remaining teams:
Western Conference
- Colorado Avalanche vs. Nashville Predators
- Calgary Flames vs Dallas Stars
- Minnesota Wild vs St. Louis Blues
- Edmonton Oilers vs Los Angeles Kings
Eastern Conference
- Florida Panthers vs Washington Capitals
- Carolina Hurricanes vs Boston Bruins
- Pittsburgh Penguins vs New York Rangers
- Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning
These playoff series have been beyond our wildest dreams thus far, with some shocking results already and a solid chance we have numerous Game 7s over the next week.
Since most of the teams face each other directly, some of the stats are going to end up being the split down the middle combined with P%, you are going to see some teams mirror each other across the standings.
The number one overall team this week with no surprise is the Colorado Avalanche by a wide margin. Up 3–0 in their series against the Nashville Predators, the Avs are first in CF%, xGF%, SCF%, second in HDCF%, and third in SV%. Everyone who picked them to win the Stanley Cup looks pretty good so far, but they are facing an easy opponent in the Nashville Predators who are dead last on our list. Some things from the regular season haven’t changed as the Avalanche are aiming to provide the only sweep of the first round.
Surprisingly second on our list are the Pittsburgh Penguins. Only surprising because they are currently up 2–1 on the New York Rangers playing their third string goaltender in Louis Domingue. The team has some amazing underlying numbers to go with it though as they are fourth in CF%, second in xGF%, third in SCF%, first in HDCF%, and sixth in SV%. The opposite can be said of their opponent as similar it was to the regular season, the Rangers underlying numbers aren’t that great and were carried by a wild Igor Shesterkin. One of the most interesting series to keep an eye out for.
In third is another surprise team, the Washington Capitals. Up 2–1 in their series against the Florida Panthers, the Capitals are getting a huge boost here from that uptick in winning percentage, as well as some solid goaltending so far from both netminders. The rest of their stats are decent, but interestingly enough Florida’s numbers are better in some categories. If this series gets tied at 2–2, look for these teams to almost swap places.
The Dallas Stars are yet another surprise team here on the list. With a 2–1 series lead over the Calgary Flames, it’s the Jake Ottienger show so far. The Stars are first in SV%, but near the bottom of the list in other categories. Meanwhile, the Flames are near the top of almost every statistical category. It’s plan and simple here, the Stars have a very hot goalie that is shifting their rankings here.
The Minnesota Wild come into our fifth spot, and are the best team currently tied 2–2 in a series. Albeit with a very slim margin. The series between the St. Louis Blues has been as advertised, high-scoring, sometimes nasty, and just an absolute grind. It’s a coin toss between these two teams.
The Edmonton Oilers were as high as second last night, before being blanked by the Los Angeles Kings in Game 4. As a result, they sit in sixth to start off our rankings which isn’t too bad. Of course they had two lopsided wins before last night, but some of that was mitigated by the shutout. The most eye popping stat here? The team is second in SV% thanks to Mike Smith. Goaltending isn’t really their problem this year.
The Boston Bruins stormed back with two wins on home ice to tie their series with the Carolina Hurricanes 2–2. As a result they get the edge in our list at number seven. What is interesting here is how the Bruins get far more of the edge compared to the Hurricanes, who were stats darlings in the regular season. Well, when Boston is leading in every category measured, it makes it much easier for the model to favour them. It’s a series now!
The last first round matchup is the closest. The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning are a toss up of teams on our list at eighth and ninth respectively. Although Toronto holds the edge this week, it’s a flip flop in every statistical category. Toronto holds the edge in xGF%, and a wide margin in SV%, while Tampa has the edge in CF%, SCF%, and HDCF% by slim margins. It’s crazy how matched these teams are, with no clear favourite yet to be determined.
Check back next week to see who the Biggest Gainer and Biggest Losers are next week as the first round concludes!
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
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