Each day, it inches closer to Friday, which means it inches closer to the NHL draft, which means it inches closer to the Calgary Flames welcoming in their next best prospect at 6th overall. The NHL decided to go crazy yesterday with a plethora of big trades. One made Simon Nemec a Flame, and another sent Bowen Byram to Chicago for the fourth overall. These deals could certainly affect who the Flames select at 6th overall, but I feel comfortable sticking to the guys I highlighted before.
So far, we’ve taken a look at possible selections in Keaton Verhoeff and Alberts Smits. After the deals from yesterday, I believe the most likely picks for the Flames are either Carson Carels or Viggo Bjorck. However, Tynan Lawrence may be a surprise selection if the top five of the draft shakes out a bit unexpectedly.
Getting to know Tynan Lawrence
Player Info
| Position | Shoots | Height | Weight | Nationality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Centre | Left | 6’1″ | 185lbs | Canada |
Draft Year Production
| League | Team | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USHL | Muskegon Lumberjacks | 13 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 1.31 |
| NCAA | Boston University | 18 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.39 |
Lawrence had a very odd draft season. At the beginning of the year, his great rookie campaign, which included 25 goals and 54 points in 56 games with the Muskegon Lumberjacks the prior season, had Lawrence pinned as the best centre in the draft class. He was mainly projected at fourth overall, and definitely had some top-three shouts. However, he also got injured early in the season, which kept him out of the lineup to start. When Lawrence returned, he’d suit up for 13 games with the Lumberjacks, scoring 10 goals and 17 points. While the production was great, the injury lingered in Lawrence’s performance. He looked good, but not nearly as dominant as he did in his rookie year.
Then Lawrence made a rare decision about halfway through the year. Lawrence decided to commit to Boston University a year earlier and leave the Lumberjacks. It was intriguing to see how this choice was going to play out, and it didn’t start pretty for Lawrence. I believe it took until about his 8th game for him to end up on the statsheet for the first time. However, Lawrence started to find his footing in the final games, posting a total of seven points and looking much, much better in general. While Lawrence ended the season on a high note, the less-than-ideal adjustment period had him drop down draft boards. But I’m a big fan of Lawrence and would still take him inside the top 10. I believe there’s a really good chance he dominates the college level next year and reminds people of the player he is.
The appeal of Lawrence
The offence
One thing that I think everyone can agree on when it comes to Lawrence is that he’s great at both ends of the ice. Night in and night out, Lawrence puts in an effort to make an impact all over the ice. Offensively, Lawrence dominates the rush. He absolutely has the pace to control the product of the offence, whether he’s distributing or strategically getting into position.
If the game slows down a bit and heads to in-zone offence, Lawrence continues his impact with patience and strategy. It’s not as flashy as his rush offence, but he is always looking for the smart play. Lawrence has great passing ability to hit his teammates with the puck in dangerous positions as he draws the defence away from them. Quietly creeping into position, Lawrence is able to get into good shooting positions or to clean up any loose pucks. He’ll engage in scrums around the net and typically be the guy to get the puck, which helps in creating great chances.
The defence
Off the puck and defensively, Lawrence is a complete dawg. The hustle he has is likely the best in the draft class. He forechecks incredibly hard and has no fear of heading into battles. Lawrence can end up along the boards with two players battling him, and he’ll still skate away with the puck. If he ends up a bit too far up the ice, Lawrence skates back with determination to cover the ground he lost and get into the space of the puck carrier.
The stick-checking that Lawrence brings to the table may honestly be his best trait. He is awesome with stick lifts, always done with intelligence and power. He’ll sneak up behind players and easily lift their stick, stripping them of the puck. Even if it’s not catching them off guard, Lawrence sticks lifts so well and so determined that he gets the puck in any battle thanks to it. He also shines with getting his stick into lanes, breaking up possible high danger chances and causing turnovers.
The skating
Another trait that can be argued as Lawrence’s best is his skating ability, specifically his speed. Lawrence skates like he’s been shot out of a cannon, getting to his desired destination within seconds of hustle. It makes him fantastic in the transition, being able to jump in the rush instantly and consistently being one of the first men back. He’s able to get steps on defenders, even if they have tons of ice on him. It allows him to blow past those defenders for breakaways, or to help generate offence that looked improbable. As alluded to earlier, if the puck is turned over behind Lawrence, he charges back with speed to regain his lost ground and threaten to take possession back.
The projection
In my opinion, if everything clicks for Lawrence, I think you can look at him as Sebastian Aho 2.0. Not necessarily a superstar 1C, but an amazing player who can be the top centre on a cup-contender. A more realistic outcome and projection is probably a low-end 1C/high-end 2C. Someone who is good for about 65+ points a year while posting great metrics at both ends of the ice and playing with determination each night. I also think Lawrence has a pretty good floor. I have a hard time not seeing him being able to carve out at least a role as a two-way, middle-six centre.
The possible cons of drafting Lawrence
If there are any concerns when it comes to Lawrence, it is likely his offensive upside. Some people doubt the vision Lawrence brings and see him as too straightforward in his thinking, lacking the peripheral vision to make dynamic passes. That, in particular, has raised issues in his in-zone offence. Everyone knows that he’s great off the rush, but some believe that when the game slows down and starts to cycle, that’s where Lawrence begins to struggle. Personally, I don’t know how much I agree with it, but I’ve seen it brought up enough that it should be mentioned.
In general, I can agree with some concerns about an offensive upside. Lawrence doesn’t play a super dynamic offence. He’s not burning defenders with stick handling like McDavid, or lasering shots into the net like a healthy Matthews; most of his offence comes from patience and smarts, so his offensive ceiling could be a bit limited.
This is more so about 6th overall than it is about Lawrence, but people would likely call it a reach if the Flames took Lawrence. Although I’m a fan of Lawrence, he is projected to be in the back half of the top 10 or into the teens, so you could wonder why they didn’t just trade back if they selected him.
Should the Flames draft Tynan Lawrence?
Personally, I would love Lawrence as a Flame. The speed, hustle, and two-way play he brings would fit in perfectly with the prospect pool the Flames are building and would become the best centre in the system. He is a very projectable player, with a ceiling that I think is doubted a bit too much. His top-end traits are really easy to like, and the drawbacks seem a bit overblown, in my opinion. Does 6th overall sound too high for him on paper? Yes, it does with where he is projected to go. However, when watching the player, it would be a perfect value.
If Lawrence is the guy they like, then the Flames should stick to their guns and draft him. He’s the type of player that explodes next season, and you’re happy you didn’t listen to the outside noise.
