“Balls!” That’s an exclamation of frustration for many. For others, perhaps an exclamation of joy.
As the balls were drawn in the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery, fortunes and misfortunes were delivered. The Toronto Maple Leafs upset all hockey fans outside of their orbit, the San Jose Sharks stack more talent into a burgeoning dynasty, and bottom-dwellers, the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames, drop the maximum two spots, whether they deserve it or not.
Like all Canadian hockey media, let’s start with Toronto.
The Leafs skip the line
The last time the Leafs missed the playoffs, they won the draft lottery and selected superstar Auston Matthews. Then came nine years of consecutive playoff appearances. Now that streak is over, bookended with another lottery win.
Pretty sweet to either make the playoffs or get a first overall pick every year with nothing in between.
Leafs fans were happy. By the televised shit-eating grin of newly hired Senior Executive Advisor, Hockey Operations, Mats Sundin, so was Leafs management.
While an immediate return to the playoffs is far from a sure thing, this win is a shot in the arm. For a team whose contention window looks to have closed, perhaps it has reopened. Assuming they take the consensus top prospect Gavin McKenna, and he adapts to the NHL quickly enough to contribute while only costing entry-level money, the imagination is tickled by possibilities….
With Toronto’s win sucking up all the oxygen, falling under the radar was the win for second overall by the San Jose Sharks.
These Sharks are Oiley
Edmonton is the City of (Lottery) Champions. Take the string of first overall picks they made in a six-year span: Taylor Hall (2010), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2011), Nail Yakupov (2012), and Connor McDavid (2015). That run prompted the NHL to create the “Oilers Rule” which says, for one thing, no team can win the lottery more than twice in a five-year span.
The Sharks are now subject to that limitation. After winning in 2024 (first overall Macklin Celebrini) and this year, they cannot win again until 2030.
But the Sharks feel more like a playoff contender than a lottery team going forward. Their pick in June will join a roster that includes Michael Misa (2025’s 2nd overall), Will Smith (2023’s 4th), and the aforementioned Celebrini.
That four top-4 picks in the past four years! This could be a dynasty in the making.
The Canucks were undeserving
Most sympathy went to the far-and-away worst team of the season, the Vancouver Canucks. People saying they “deserved” the pick above all other teams. I disagree.
While the lifecycle of all teams includes bottoming out, the Canucks did it in shameful fashion. They finished: 28th in shot attempt differential (-3.9), 27th in speed bursts, and dead last 32nd in blocked shots (593, about half the league average!). In other words, they didn’t fight for shots, mostly coasted, and never sacrificed.
This is a team that rolled over and quit.
While any team can be the worst in the NHL–heck, someone has to be–they still must give an honest effort. The Canucks don’t.
The Flames will have to earn it
Good luck rarely seems to fall upon the Calgary Flames, and this lottery was no different, with them falling to their lowest slot possible. However, with a lack of consensus from the second pick on to their sixth pick, the Flames could very likely to get a player as good as one higher up when the dust settles.
For Flames fans, focus turns to possibilities of GM Craig Conroy leveraging the bevy of picks he’s collected. And focus turns to the 2027 draft.
In contrast to 2026 being considered a draft class top-heavy with defencemen, 2027 is said to feature a stellar crop of centres. An elite centre is the most vital missing piece of this Flames rebuild. Having sold off so many pieces this season, next year looks to be another year of top lottery contention. For an elite centre, I can wait another year.
It’s all the Oilers’ fault
In 2015, the NHL tweaked their draft lottery to discourage tanking. They called it the “Compression of Odds”. The worst team’s odds dropped from 25% to 20%, and all non-playoff teams suddenly had more of a chance.
It was in response to the breathtaking hoarding of first overalls by the Edmonton Oilers. They’d go on to win that McDavid lottery despite their reduced odds because the Hockey Gods have a sense of humour.
Perhaps you hate when a bottom-dweller’s dishonourable tank gets rewarded. Or you hate when a good team that just narrowly missed the playoffs hits on their long-shot odds. The NHL Draft is well calibrated to dish out either.
